Axsome Therapeutics, Inc.
$233.49
+5.1%Axsome Therapeutics, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the development of novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders in the United States. The company's product pipeline includes AXS-05, a therapeutic for the treatment of major depressive disorder and resistant depression disorders; and that is in the Phase III clinical trial to treat Alzheimer's disease agitation, as well as that has completed phase II clinical trial for the treatment of smoking cessation. It is also developing AXS-07, a novel, oral, rapidly absorbed, multi-mechanistic, and investigational medicine that has completed two Phase III trials for the acute treatment of migraine; AXS-12, a selective and potent norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor, which is in Phase III trial to treat narcolepsy; and AXS-14, a novel, oral, and investigational medicine that is in Phase III trial for the treatment of fibromyalgia. Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. has a research collaboration agreement with Duke University for evaluating AXS-05 in smoking cessation. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -63.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -63.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum +5.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -2.1%, ROIC -44.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin -28.7%, ROE -2.1%, ROIC -44.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +87.2%, momentum +5.1%, net margin -28.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AXSM stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 255.81, with estimates ranging from a low of 200.00 to a high of 302.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 255.81, with estimates ranging from a low of 200.00 to a high of 302.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $102K and sold $126.04M worth of AXSM shares, resulting in $125.94M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
29.8K
6.47M
-6.5M
-$6.47M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
283.0K
48.47M
-48.5M
-$48.47M
6-9 Months
800
101.76K
386.9K
50.18M
-50.1M
-$50.08M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
180.3K
20.92M
-20.9M
-$20.92M
Top Buyers
Coleman Mark
Director
$102K
Top Sellers
Tabuteau Herriot
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$74.35M
Jacobson Mark L.
Officer: Chief Operating Officer
$15.30M
Jeffs Roger
Director
$13.37M
Coleman Mark
Director
$8.05M
Saad Mark E
Director
$6.32M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $125.94M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
AXSM has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
axsm Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AXSM by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.