MediaAlpha, Inc.
$8.29
-6.6%MediaAlpha, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates an insurance customer acquisition platform in the United States. It optimizes customer acquisition in various verticals of property and casualty insurance, health insurance, and life insurance. The company was founded in 2014 and is headquartered in Los Angeles, California. MediaAlpha, Inc. is a subsidiary of White Mountains Insurance Group, Ltd.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 18.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 18.0, earnings yield +5.5%, momentum -6.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.2%, ROIC -7.3%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.3%, ROE +6.2%, ROIC -7.3%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +107.6%, momentum -6.6%, net margin +2.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
MediaAlpha, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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MediaAlpha, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
MediaAlpha, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
MediaAlpha, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
MediaAlpha, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
MediaAlpha, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that MAX stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 11.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.25, with estimates ranging from a low of 11.00 to a high of 11.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
MediaAlpha, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $298K and sold $10.10M worth of MAX shares, resulting in $9.80M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
396.1K
3.86M
-3.9M
-$3.86M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
438.8K
4.85M
-4.8M
-$4.85M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
84.9K
1.04M
-1.0M
-$1.04M
9-12 Months
31.0K
297.57K
35.7K
359.01K
-61K
-$61K
Top Buyers
Vrabeck Kathy P
Director
$298K
Top Sellers
Nonko Eugene
Director
$4.65M
Yi Steven
Director, Officer: See Remarks
$3.96M
Cramer Keith
Officer: Chief Revenue Officer
$784K
Yeh Kuanling Amy
Officer: Chief Technology Officer
$568K
Coyne Jeffrey B
Officer: General Counsel And Secretary
$143K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $9.80M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
max Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on MAX by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.