Alumis Inc. Common Stock
$20.08
-1.2%Alumis Inc., a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of medicines for autoimmune disorders. It develops ESK-001, an allosteric tyrosine kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitor for the treatment of plaque psoriasis, systemic lupus erythematosus, and non-infectious uveitis; and A-005, a central nervous system-penetrant allosteric TYK2 inhibitor for neuroinflammatory and neurodegenerative diseases. The company was formerly known as Esker Therapeutics, Inc. and changed its name to Alumis Inc. in January 2022. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in South San Francisco, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -7.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E -7.0, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.2%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -80.8%, ROIC -1.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -10.1%, ROE -80.8%, ROIC -1.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +26.9%, momentum -1.2%, net margin -10.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Alumis Inc. Common Stock Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Alumis Inc. Common Stock Fair Value Envelope
Alumis Inc. Common Stock Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Alumis Inc. Common Stock Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Alumis Inc. Common Stock Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Alumis Inc. Common Stock Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ALMS stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 39.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.00 to a high of 51.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 39.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 25.00 to a high of 51.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Alumis Inc. Common Stock Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $22.40M worth of ALMS shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
705.9K
12.00M
0
0.00
+12.0M
+$12.00M
6-9 Months
1.3M
9.22M
0
0.00
+9.2M
+$9.22M
9-12 Months
289.0K
1.18M
0
0.00
+1.2M
+$1.18M
Top Buyers
Akkaraju Srinivas
Director
$15.01M
Foresite Labs, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$5.35M
Foresite Capital Management Vi Llc
10 Percent Owner
$533K
Tananbaum James B.
Director, 10 Percent Owner:
$533K
Tetrault Lynn A.
Director
$204K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $22.40M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
No Dividend Yield Data
ALMS has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
alms Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ALMS by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.