image
Consumer Cyclical - Auto - Parts - NYSE - US
$ 6.31
0.478 %
$ 742 M
Market Cap
27.43
P/E
EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT
EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT 2014 - Q4
image
Executives

David Dauch - Chairman, President, Chief Executive Officer Michael Simonte - Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer Christopher Son - Director, Investor Relations, Corporate Communications and Marketing.

Analysts

Rod Lache - Deutsche Bank Brian Johnson - Barclays Itay Michaeli - Citi Ryan Brinkman - JP Morgan Joe Spak - RBC Capital Markets Brett Hoselton - Keybanc John Murphy - Bank of America Merrill Lynch Ravi Shanker - Morgan Stanley.

Operator

Good morning. My name is Laurel and I will be your conference facilitator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the AAM Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2014 Earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer period.

If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, press the pound key. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr.

Christopher Son, Director of Investor Relations, Corporate Communications and Marketing. Please go ahead, Mr. Son..

Christopher Son

the JP Morgan Global High Yield and Leveraged Finance Conference on February 24, and the Bank of America Merrill Lynch New York Automotive Summit on April 1. In addition, we are always happy to host investors at any of our facilities. Please feel free to contact either myself or Vitalie Stelea to schedule a visit.

With that, let me turn things over to AAM’s Chairman, President and CEO, David Dauch..

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

for Jaguar-Land Rover, we’ll deliver both front and rear axles for a new global passenger car program referred to as the XE platform. In our Rayong, Thailand facility, we’ll launch AAM’s first ever major drive line program for Ford Motor Company in support of a global rear wheel drive SUV program.

For the refresh of the Nissan Titan light duty pickup truck program here in North America, AAM will provide our latest high efficiency front-rear axle technology for them.

For Mercedes, we’re supporting the next-generation C-class and E-class vehicles in China and we’ll also be expanding our supplier relationship in that market by launching independent rear drive axles for multiple SUV variants manufactured for Mercedes.

Finally for FCA, we’ll be providing PDUs and RDUs for a third EcoTrac derivative, this time for the China market. For the full year of 2015, AAM is targeting EBITDA margins in the range of 13.75% to 14% of sales. The big story for AAM in 2015 is cash flow generation.

AAM is targeting positive free cash flow in the range of $175 million to $200 million for the full year of 2015.

To our key financial targets for the periods covering 2015 through 2017, AAM is targeting annual organic sales growth in excess of 5%, EBITDA margins in the range of 13% to 14%, and free cash flow in the range of 4% to 5% of sales during this period.

As we look to the future, we remain focused on delivering our plan to sustain profitability and improved free cash flow performance while leveraging AAM’s technology leadership to deliver innovative market-driven products to achieve profitable growth and business diversification.

That is our commitment to all of our key stakeholders, and we look forward to updating you on our progress and success along the way, much like we’ve done over the years. That concludes my comments for this morning. I’d like to thank each and every one of you for your attention here today.

Now let me turn it over to our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Mike Simonte.

Mike?.

Michael Simonte

$31.2 million was recorded in cost of goods sold, the remaining $4.3 million was included in SG&A for the fourth quarter. Let me now address a couple key credit metrics, and then we’ll move on from there. AAM’s EBITDA leverage, or the ratio of EBITDA to net debt, was approximately 2.5 times at 2014 year-end.

AAM’s EBIT coverage, or the ratio of EBIT to net interest expense, was 3.2 times at 2014 year-end. The EBITDA leverage ratio and the EBIT interest coverage ratio were both calculated on an adjusted basis.

One final note on the balance sheet - we ended 2014 with available liquidity in excess of $800 million, consisting of available cash and borrowing capacity on our global credit facilities. Before we move to the Q&A, let me just say this about our 2015 guidance.

As David said, we are reaffirming the earnings and cash flow guidance we previously announced in January for 2015, as well as the targets we established for 2016 and ’17.

The key guidance targets for 2015 are full-year sales of approximately $4 billion to $4.1 billion, EBITDA in the range of $550 million to $575 million - this would translate to an EBITDA margin of 13.75% to 14% of sales, and free cash flow in the range of $175 million to $200 million.

From a cadence perspective, the first quarter is off to a good start. We expect modest sequential sales growth in the first quarter of 2015 followed by a seasonally higher level of sales in the second and third quarters.

As you may already know, some of the plants, our customers’ facilities that we support, were down for some maintenance time around year-end extending into the first few weeks of January, so this is why we expect only modest sequential sales growth in the first quarter of 2015.

Let me say again that none of the accounting and reporting issues we discussed earlier that relate to the restated 10-Q for the third quarter of 2014 affects our earnings and cash flow guidance for ’15. We are on track to deliver that guidance and those targets and remain just as confident as ever in our ability to make it happen.

Thank you for your time and participation this morning. I’m going to stop here and turn the call over to Chris so we can do the Q&A..

Christopher Son

Great. Thanks Mike, and thanks David. We’ve reserved some time to take some questions. Based on time, I’d like to try to limit to two per question. At this time, I’ll turn it back over to Laurel so she can prompt the Q&A..

Operator

[Operator instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Rod Lache with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open..

Rod Lache

Can you hear me?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yes, good morning, Rod..

Rod Lache

Good morning. I have a couple things. One is you guys have been very transparent with the variances that affected your P&L in the past. I appreciate that there was no impact on the cash flow from all of this, but I’m curious about Q3.

Was senior management aware of the accrual adjustment that you made for the quarter?.

Michael Simonte

Rod, this is Mike. Yes, we were aware of the accounting to reduce the accrual during the course of 2014, and of course that was particularly true in the third quarter.

I think what we tried to communicate this morning is that one of our locations, as it turns out based on a review of the documentation, inadvertently overstated the accruals and understated income in prior periods.

Now, plant finance thought that these accruals were needed and appropriate to cover items such as open requisitions for plant maintenance and service projects, and Rod, also customer charge-backs for quality issues and premium freight.

Some of these issues, particularly the customer charge-backs, can age for a while until they can be resolved by mutual agreement. As you know, we cleaned up quite a bit of our operating situation and also the commercial impacts with our customers in 2014. We got our Mexican operations back to a six-day schedule.

We cleaned up all of our past dues, and we had a very good year, as David mentioned, from a quality standpoint.

In this case, the accounting documentation that our plant finance team relied on to support the accruals, and more importantly to support matching of the accruals to activity that we were experiencing in 2014, this documentation was not properly prepared and certainly not maintained over time properly, so when the auditors reviewed how the ’14 activity was matched to the accruals, the documentation didn’t hold up.

That was true even though we had activity passing through our financial statements this year, as we will for any year, that relates to the resolution of estimates and other contingencies and of course other projects that may have been started in a prior year. So Rod, listen, it’s our job to get this right.

We thought this activity was being matched up in the normal course of business. We know how to do this right.

We failed to do so there in the third quarter, and so we are communicating as openly and transparently as we can about the thing today to make sure that you understand what happened, you understand that we take it very seriously to get this stuff right.

We’ve made the appropriate adjustments and we’ll continue to make full and transparent disclosure of the issues that caused our income statement to be affected, or for that matter any other financial statement to be affected by unusual items each quarter..

Rod Lache

Right. It just seems like the margin obviously in Q3 was boosted by maybe 80 basis points, and if that was something that was evident, it’s unusual that it wouldn’t have been called out, I guess is the issue. But maybe there were other factors that were offsetting that as well within the P&L. .

Michael Simonte

Yes, as I said, Rod, we felt that in the normal course of business, our plant finance team was doing the right thing to match up the accruals to other activity. That proved to not be true. The documentation did not support that, so those adjustments were made in error in the third quarter and they had to be revised..

Rod Lache

Okay. Also just two housekeeping things.

One is the level of K2 production that’s incorporated into your guidance, can you just remind us, is that in the 1.2 to 1.25 million unit range? Do you see any potential for upside to that in 2015 or ’16, or is that the peak that you’re prepared to produce for? Secondly, how should we be thinking about the tax rate over the longer term? I think you’ve said in the past that it would remain at this level for a bit, but ultimately if you bring cash back to the U.S.

from Luxembourg for dividends or acquisitions, how would that affect the tax rate?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Rod, this is David Dauch. I’ll cover the K2XX production and Mike can cover the tax rate issue. We’re planning 1.2 million units from a K2XX standpoint. Our capacity is aligned with our customer in that respect. As Mike covered with you, we’ve obviously readjusted our operations and moved from a seven-day operation to a five and six-day operation.

If GM schedules any increase above that 1.2, we will have some ability to support that moving forward..

Michael Simonte

And Rod, just to be clear, mechanically the guidance range that we’ve provided, the low end of the range, the $4 billion in sales is aligned with the 1.2 million unit production assumption for K2XX, and somewhere between 1.225 million and 1.250 million is aligned with the upper end of the range.

What our assumption is, Rod, is that if market conditions allow General Motors to build more than 1.2 million units, of course sell more than 1.2 million units, that some of the other programs we support may also be favorably impacted, and so that’s why it’s not only the K2XX that drives the difference between the high end and the low end of the range.

As it relates to the tax issue, Rod, we expect our tax provision rate over the next couple, three years and perhaps a little bit longer than that, to be similar to that which we experience today in this range of 15 to 20%. Now, a couple bits of color here - of course, all this is based on current tax laws.

There have been some initiatives that President Obama has talked about, as well as initiatives affecting other countries in which we conduct our business, that could have an impact on that.

But at this point in time, there doesn’t appear to be any significant momentum to change any of the key laws and regulations that cause us to believe that our tax rate can be controlled within this range. Longer term, it should increase. Through the end of 2014, we’ve now soaked up the net operating losses that we incurred in the U.S.

in prior years, but we still have a significant amount of credit capacity that can be utilized to reduce our tax obligations in the U.S. in the future, and in our opinion in fact will be utilized, and that’s why they’re recognized as deferred tax assets.

We have a significant amount of what’s referred to as previously taxed income that allows us to move material amounts of money from Luxembourg if and when it’s appropriate to the U.S. without disturbing this outcome, so Rod, we do not really anticipate at this time that that’s going to be a change for us in the near term..

Rod Lache

Okay, thank you..

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brian Johnson with Barclays. Your line is open..

Brian Johnson

Good morning, team. Want to talk a little bit about the longer term EBITDA guidance. In particular, there’s a lot of uncertainty in Brazil, and you’ve got a 13 to 14% EBITDA target through 2017.

Does that make any assumption one way or another about where light vehicle, and to the extent its relevant commercial vehicle production is going in Brazil?.

Michael Simonte

Brian, this is Mike. Good morning. As it relates to Brazil, Brazil is a very important part of our business and we hope and expect it will be a growing part of our business. But as it relates to the next couple, three years, we expect our sales in Brazil to be relatively small in relation to the total business, probably less than 5%.

So while we are making certain assumptions regarding an ability to improve profitability and increase sales in that market through the launch of new business programs, one particular program in fact that will launch in 2016 and ’17, it really just doesn’t move the needle too much.

So I guess what I’m saying is our assumptions in Brazil really don’t have a material impact on our ability to deliver those margins..

Brian Johnson

Okay, so that being said, are you assuming a material recovery in Brazil sales, or just--.

Michael Simonte

No. No, I wouldn’t regard our assumption as a material recovery, no..

Brian Johnson

Okay, so you’re--all right. Second question, you talked a little bit about K2XX overall, but within that, it appears that the SUV sales are particularly strong, especially given the gas price environment.

Can you comment on if there’s any way to increase the mix there, recognizing of course it’s your customers’ decision, and then again how you think of that over the next couple years..

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Brian, this is David. As you said, the SUV sales are very strong right now.

As you know, they build them out of the Arlington facility, and that facility has been running at its maximum capacity rate for some time now, so unless GM has other assembly plant modifications to incorporate SUV into them, I don’t see the SUV sales changing too much from what we experienced this past year..

Brian Johnson

And if they were, you could support that, I assume?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we could..

Brian Johnson

Because at one point, they did have a Janesville plant and part of Silao churning out SUVs..

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

It really comes down to what the mix is. It goes back to the earlier question that Rod had in regards to the 1.2 million units that we’ve planned for, or up to 1.225. It’s just a matter of what they want that mix to be between SUVs and pickups, and then we’ll obviously work with General Motors to support those things..

Brian Johnson

Okay, thanks..

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with City. Please go ahead..

Itay Michaeli

Great, thanks. Good morning everyone. Just on the 2015 outlook, Mike, hoping to get a little bit more detail on the split between the gross margin and SG&A.

I mean, it sounds like you’re running now comfortably north of 15% on the gross margin side, which suggests maybe you could be at the higher end of your EBITDA margin range, even with some growth in SG&A. But hoping you can maybe talk a little bit about what we should look for in those two items..

Michael Simonte

So Itay, I think you’ve got it right, generally speaking, with respect to the trend in gross profit. We expect a good amount of stability based on the assumptions we’ve made for 2015 as it compares to 2014.

We do expect higher production volumes in some of the key North American light truck programs that will translate to a little bit higher operating leverage, a little bit higher capacity utilization, but not so high that we feel we’re going to have cost overruns to meet it.

This is particularly true because we’ve made adjustments to our capacity, particularly in component making operations that we’ve discussed with you and others over time. As it relates to SG&A, we don’t expect SG&A to creep too much, certainly not as a percentage of sales. On a dollar basis, it will grow.

It definitely will grow, as we’ve discussed back in January, but as a percentage of sales it should be around 7% or a little bit lower, so that’s going to allow us to again see a little bit of profit support from the mix of those two items..

Itay Michaeli

That’s very helpful.

Then just going back to the Brazil for a moment, can you just update us on where gross profitability ended up in 2014, and then what you’re baking in your guidance for this year?.

Michael Simonte

Yes, we had--earlier in the year, we had communicated our target of increasing the gross profit margins to approximately 10%. That was before we became aware of further reductions in production plans for our two major programs in that market. We ended the year positive with a little bit less than a 5% gross margin, when all was said and done.

Our team did a great job. The sales were about $50 million light compared to our budget, but they still managed to maintain a positive gross margin by taking quick and decisive actions to reduce the fixed cost structure, and variable costs for that matter. We continue, Itay, to target a 10% level of gross profit performance in 2015.

We’re a little bit light of that in our current plan, so we’re working to find ways to improve that. Longer term, we should be able to raise it even further as we improve capacity utilization, not just of the actual physical plant but also the entire team working in Brazil.

We’ve got some specific projects in the backlog and some other things we’re looking at that can allow that business to earn better margin. So I hope that’s helpful with respect to Brazil at this time..

Itay Michaeli

Yes, absolutely, very helpful. Thanks so much, Mike. I’ll pass it on. Thanks guys..

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Brinkman with JP Morgan. Your line is open..

Ryan Brinkman

Hi, thanks for taking my questions.

I understand that your backlog has a high degree of passenger car and crossover content, but given that your sales in recent quarters have been benefiting from the stronger mix of full-size pickups and SUVs, and full-size pickups and SUVs do comprise some portion of your backlog, does that then create upward pressure on your backlog?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

I don’t know if I’d call it upward pressure. We’re obviously realizing some great success with our current customers with the full-size truck and SUV platforms, especially GM and Chrysler or FCA. We’ve increased our content per vehicle as it relates to our performance with them.

We’ve guided before that we are working towards parity by mid-decade with respect to GM and non-GM sales. Obviously that’s going to be throttled down a little bit now, where I think non-GM sales will be more in the 40 to 45% range than parity we had talked about before.

But in regards to the backlog, again, our technology in the crossover and passenger car market is being received extremely favorably. We talked to you about the $500 million of sales that we expect by the 2017 period of time, just under disconnecting all-wheel drive technology.

We’re working with a number of other customers right now on that disconnecting all-wheel drive, or EcoTrac, and we’re also working on some of our latest technology associated with EAM, which you’re familiar with, in the hybrid electric, plug-in hybrid electric and battery electric type applications.

So again, reporting over a billion dollars of sales opportunity quoted and emerging, and we’ll hit our normal hit rate in line with what the sales filter and the guidance that we put forward to you in the past.

So most of what we’re working on right now is 2017 and beyond as it relates to most of the drive line type programs, so what we’ve guided you on the street in regards to the backlog of 825 with the cadence being $300 million, $200 million, and $325 million, I don’t think you see a lot of change in the first two years but you possibly could see some change in 2017 and beyond..

Ryan Brinkman

Okay, great. There were some questions earlier on Brazil. Could you just give us an update on your operations in Thailand, what you’re seeing there from both an operating and a foreign currency perspective? And then I think you were trying to repurposes some capacity there toward new programs with non-GM customers.

Any progress to report along those lines? Thanks..

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, you know, Thailand obviously got caught up on the political coup last year and was starting to show some improvements towards the end of the year. It’s still not where we ultimately would desire it to be, and we’ve had to adjust our installed capacity and capability there, just like we’ve done in Brazil, as Mike indicated.

We do have another customer coming on board, as I mentioned to you, that being Ford Motor Company for an Asian SUV program, so we’ll repurpose some of that capacity for that. But overall, we feel that we’re in a solid position in regards to supporting the market there where it is today, and also some upside to that market moving forward.

Mike, do you want to mention anything on the exchange rate?.

Michael Simonte

To the extent that the U.S. dollar is stronger than our translated sales in that market will be a little bit lower.

When we spoke to you and others in Detroit in January, we talked about maybe a $25 million to $30 million headwind we estimate relative to our sales expectations, but I think actually, Ryan, something that relates to your first question is helpful in this regard too, because most of the high dollar impact new business awards that we’re launching in the passenger car and crossover vehicle area are concentrated in North America and China, and these are two markets that are very favorably impacted by the trend towards crossovers and particularly all-wheel drive crossovers.

So underlying the positive comments that David made about our ability to participate in that trend is the fact that we actually are in fact benefiting from that trend. Our capacity levels for some of the major programs, including EcoTrac, we’re talking actively about increasing capacity to meet demand in those programs.

So I think there is some upward bias relative to that, and of course that should offset any weakness we see related to currency translation..

Ryan Brinkman

Okay, that’s helpful. Thanks..

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead..

Joe Spak

Hi, good morning everyone. Mike, thanks again for all the detail. I just wanted to quickly go back to cash taxes. I believe in the past you’ve said you’re currently in the mid-single digits, and I guess I just wanted to confirm that, given with all the detail you’ve provided today.

More importantly, I think you said that should sort of eventually creep a little bit higher to maybe 10% or so over the next couple years.

Is there any color you can provide as to what you expect now for 2015?.

Michael Simonte

Yeah Joe, you’re right on in terms of your memory of the cash tax provision rate. In 2014, we paid approximately $11 million of income taxes, so that translates to a little bit less than 10% cash tax provision rate. The cash tax provision rate should continue to be lower than our book tax provision rate. There’s one qualification with that.

As we settle audits, and we talked about earlier on this call the increase to the reserve for uncertain tax positions, as it’s referred to in tax literature. There are going to be some lumpy payments that come through every once in a while.

I think last year, we had roughly $5 million of this activity that increased our cash tax provision rate above and beyond the normal run rate of activity we’re experiencing. So subject to that, we would expect the cash tax provision rate to be over time lower than our book tax provision rate. That continues to be true, yes..

Joe Spak

Okay, thanks.

Then anything on steel or SBQ? I know there’s some index in there, but what are you guys--how are you guys thinking about the commodity landscape as you look forward to ’15?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Steel has settled down for us, personally. There still a tight supply in the marketplace with respect to SBQ-type steel. There was additional capacity that was brought on board, but because of the accelerating desire and build requirements, they’ve eaten up a lot of that.

Because of the amount of SBQ steel that we buy, we have a lot of--we have very positive relationships with the mills and we get priority with respect to that, but we’ve got the proper capacity put in place to support what we’d consider to be the proper vehicle production for 2015 and beyond, and obviously we’ll keep an eye on that moving forward.

But we don’t see any issues with respect to our suppliers on SBQ, although the industry is tight from a capacity standpoint..

Joe Spak

Okay, thanks. I’ll pass it on..

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Brett Hoselton with Keybanc. Your line is open..

Brett Hoselton

Good morning, gentlemen.

I wanted to kind of talk a little bit about the longer term outlook, and I guess first simple question is as we think about the 13 to 14% margin range that you’re guiding towards through 2017, what’s the primary one or two factors that might drive it to the higher end of that range versus the lower end of that range?.

Michael Simonte

Yeah Brett, look, the most important determinant of our profitability is capacity utilization, so you know in making any budget or projection of future revenue and of course our financial results, we have to make estimates about how much production and ultimately sales we’re going to experience from those programs.

So what we have done in our estimation is range that activity, and so we think if production levels stay near to those levels we enjoy today and are planning for 2015, then the margin performance for those two years should be relatively similar to that which we’re guiding for 2015.

If we experience some pullback, either because the market demand for the products we support is lower, maybe our customers could lose some market share, there are any number of reasons why that may happen, but we’ve estimated that we could have lower production in that time period and therefore may have some pressure on our margins.

So that is by far and away the issue that we think about when we’re setting that range..

Brett Hoselton

what is the probability in your mind that you might actually make some sort of a strategic acquisition over the next year or two?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Brett, this is David.

Again, we’re going to keep everything in balance in regards to how we are profitably growing this business, and clearly the first thing that we’re protecting is we’re protecting the strength of our balance sheet and improving that balance sheet to even put us in a position to even contemplate looking at acquisitions going forward.

We have built this company for the most part on organic growth over the years. There is plenty of opportunity out there from an organic growth standpoint, like I mentioned to you earlier.

At the same time, that organic growth also has demands as related to capex, and we’ve been really trying to throttle back our capex and manage our cash flow generation to the point that we had a position inflection in cash flow performance this past year, and we expect that cash flow performance to increase this year, as we outlined with the guidance of 175 to $200 million.

If the right opportunity presents itself from a strategic standpoint and an organic standpoint, then clearly we’re going to look at it; but we have to keep that in balance with managing our balance sheet and managing our resource capability, not only financially but also from a human capital standpoint.

But we feel if the right opportunity presents itself within our core business, or even outside as we look to expand our markets and our product portfolio, then we’ll do the right thing for our shareholders and stakeholders..

Brett Hoselton

Thank you very much, gentlemen..

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Murphy with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open..

John Murphy

Good morning, guys. One of the surprises in 2014 to the upside was the relatively strong free cash flow at $123 million, and it was $23 million higher than you guys were looking for in your original guidance last year.

I’m just curious if you could highlight what you think the key drivers were there, because it wasn’t really sales or EBITDA margins, and just trying to understand what were the real drivers there and what we might think about going forward in 2015. .

Michael Simonte

Okay John, I guess I would point out a couple things. First of all, our sales grew by almost $500 million in calendar year 2014, and yet our inventory was reduced, so our plant management teams throughout the world did a very fine job normalizing inventory levels.

We had some excess inventory, at least from the eyes of a finance officer, in our operations to protect against day-to-day performance issues and also to protect the launch success, so that was a big driver. And quite frankly, we did better than we expected on that front, and we still have work to do in that area.

We’re still looking at ways to either reduce or minimize the growth of inventory as we continue to grow our business in calendar year 2015.

The other issue that must be mentioned in this context, and there’s all kinds of puts and takes that a business will encounter in any given year, but the other issue is that we did negotiate a significant capacity management program with General Motors.

They paid us to increase capacity on the K2XX program, so the net effect of that activity was different from what we expected.

Our capex, our net capital spending in areas unrelated to the General Motors activity was a little bit less than we thought as well, so when we look at the mix of those two items, we’re going to spend all that money GM paid us. Some of it is going to be paid in ’15 versus paid in ’14, but we’re going to spend all that money.

The issue is that when you look at the timing of those activities and the leverage in our capital spending activity, we did a little bit better there than we had anticipated as well..

John Murphy

Okay, and then just a second question as we look at EcoTrac and the big growth there.

The $500 million in revenue that you’re expecting in 2017, can you just give us a rough breakdown by region and customer there, just so we can understand where that’s shaking out?.

David Dauch Chairman & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, clearly EcoTrac was launched here in North America with FCA on the Jeep program, that being the Cherokee. It’s now expanded into the Chrysler 200 program, and then it will expand into China as we mentioned to you.

So the EcoTrac and FCA is going to be the majority of that $500 million; however, we do have a second customer coming on with that technology in that 2017 period of time that will be split between North America and China, but most of it being in North America..

John Murphy

Okay, great. That’s very helpful. Thank you very much..

Christopher Son

Thanks. We’ve got time for one more question..

Operator

Your final question comes from the line of Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open..

Ravi Shanker

Thanks, good morning everyone. Thanks for squeezing me in here. A couple of questions. One is your CPV has seen a very nice, fairly consistent $130, $140 increase every quarter year-on-year in 2014.

Where do you think that goes in 2015, and what keeps that CPV going up?.

Michael Simonte

Ravi, good morning. This is Mike. Our content per vehicle should be relatively similar in 2015 as where we ended the year in 2014. As you know, the launch of the K2XX SUVs and the heavy duty portion of the pickup truck program was the main driver for that increase in content per vehicle in 2014 as compared to 2013.

Now as we--when we look at the first quarter of 2015, we do see the opportunity for content per vehicle to show a good amount of growth on a year-over-year basis, but that’s because the first quarter of 2014 was impacted by the launch, the early days of launch for the SUV and the heavy duty portion of the K2XX program.

Once we get past that first quarter, though, we think there’s relative stability in the CPV. The positive drivers are continued increase in four-wheel drive penetration. These are modest improvements, but every time we sell an additional front axle, that drives additional content.

Then the offsetting impact, of course, is the price reductions that we will be passing back to our customers. But net-net, I don’t see any material change in that content per vehicle.

There’s going to be a little bit of pressure on that number to go down over time, but we hope to offset that from a P&L standpoint with productivity in our own cost structure..

Ravi Shanker

Great, and then just lastly in your long-term guidance, you’re looking for 13% to 14% EBITDA margins.

I think in the past you’ve talked about margins normalizing at the 12% to 13% level, so is this an upgrade in your long-term margin assumptions, and what’s driving that?.

Michael Simonte

Well Ravi, you’re exactly accurate. We think there is a possibility over time that our margins could be reduced to a level even lower than the 13% to 14% range.

If that happens, it will be because we’ve significantly improved the diversification of our business and will become more representative of the revenue concentrations of many of our peer companies.

We are saying to you and to anybody else in this guidance for 2016 and ’17 that we don’t anticipate that trend to be impacting that particular time period because of the strength in the underlying North American light truck programs that we anticipate supporting.

So I wouldn’t say it’s an upgrade to our long-term guidance; I would say that it’s an upgrade to any expectation you may have had for the near term potentially, but it’s still consistent with our thought process about these issues..

Ravi Shanker

Understood, thank you..

Christopher Son

Great, thank you Ravi, and we thank all of you who have participated on this call and appreciate your interest in AAM. We look forward to talking with you in the future..

Operator

This concludes today’s conference call. You may now disconnect..

ALL TRANSCRIPTS
2024 Q-1
2023 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2022 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2021 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2020 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2019 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2018 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2017 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2016 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2015 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1
2014 Q-4 Q-3 Q-2 Q-1