Marc S. Lipschultz
Yes. Thank you very much, Glenn. And on those additional credit stats, a couple of comments, just and then we'll jump into the specifics. Look, we're out talking to all our shareholders. That's who we work for. And what we heard is we're trying to understand, we're reading a lot of narrative help us with the facts. We tend to try to be very data-driven in our business. And so this is additional disclosure that we hope helps people understand what we're seeing at the portfolio level as you're observing because headlines are pretty different from the underpinning facts in this context. And so we want to try to share as much as we can so people can see what we can see transparently for the good and the bad. But I think in this case, as you observe, there's a lot more to like than to dislike. Now with that all said, as you said, let's try to look forward. We don't have a crystal ball, obviously, but I have a few things we can observe, and we'll get to the software point specifically. Let's start more generally, though. We have seen no material negative developments in our portfolios in terms of amendments, in terms of PIK in terms -- in fact, PI has been on the decline as a percentage of the portfolio, contrary to what I think people probably would draw minds into it or suggest. No material change in watch list, no material change in nonaccruals. So those are observable and important facts. And I think, are, again, probably a little different from what people tonally would suggest would be happening. So that's a very healthy place to be, number one. Number two, things in our business, as you know, we have a lot of visibility and things don't move fast, by which I mean, that companies as they are going from being very healthy and our average portfolio company, remember, is still growing. In the high single digits, revenue and EBITDA. These are growing businesses. And to go on average from that and no material changes in those other gates, and they are gates. They're not just indicators. You don't go from I'm a healthy company to, gee, I have a tremendous problem. We have huge visibility on that. That's why we have watch list. That's why we have conversations about amendments and other topics. It's one of the great advantages of having tight documents and being in the private market. So we have visibility on people going from one stage to the next. So we can actually say with a lot of comfort that in the foreseeable future, portfolios are likely to remain very healthy. Now when you -- the further you go out, obviously, the more variables come in, and that will bring us to the software topic. So none of us know the future state of the world transformed by AI. And obviously, the center of gravity of that conversation today is software. But frankly, it ripples across the whole economy, and all of us should probably have our eyes on that as well. But here's what we can say. We're lenders. We're not equity owners. And that's not a small distinction. We choose that position for a reason in our strategies. Our job is to be prepared, and that means doing great due diligence. It means doing good underwriting. It means doing good documentation. And importantly, it means being the senior capital where there's a lot of equity capital beneath us. Our tech portfolio, remember, are some of the very largest companies. average EBITDA today is $320 million, and we all understand where the pressures can come from, from AI. But you're starting at $320 million with companies that in many instances have equity checks from very sophisticated sponsors of billions and billions of dollars. And we have maturities that are 3 to 4 years on average, I'll come on to your maturity wall question. But 3 to 4 years, so what that really says to all of us is today, by and large, the question on hand is really an equity question, not a debt question. A, not a monolithic answer. But if you took just one step back, you probably logically conclude that there is a set of companies that will actually be beneficiaries of AI, the identification of the business. There will be a set of companies in the middle of that range that will probably be harmed in terms of profitability growth, but that's far from mortal. -- again, that's all equity, both those categories. And then there'll be some companies that get themselves in more substantial trouble. And that's where, again, our preparation and our work always comes to bear. This isn't new. I mean credit is not intended, never expected to be a flawless exercise. We've had defaults before. We'll have defaults in the future. And the key then becomes minimizing that number and then doing well in recoveries. And I'll tell you this, we've gone back and studied all of the cases where we've had restructurings or material amendments driven by performance issues. And here are the actual statistics in that. The actual statistics are our average principal recovery in those cases has been $0.80 on the dollar. And when you incorporate that we actually had several coupons on average in those instances as well, our actual recoveries in total on our problem situations has been 1.1 to 1.2. Now again, not suggesting that doesn't mean you can't have worse outcomes and there couldn't be some of those in the world of software, probably a good place to watch. But you're down into a very much a subset of a subset of a subset, and our job will be to manage through that. As for -- therefore, the conversations. Listen, these have very, very large equity checks involved. And that doesn't mean that some of them won't be handed over to the lenders. Some will. But in all likelihood, and we've experienced an analogous circumstance with COVID, and again, everyone now will say, well, lasted a short time, but it wasn't -- it didn't seem that way living forward, right? It was a very dark world. And by and large, good sponsors are going to look and say, take a $10 billion buyout. Now they may very well think it's worth $10 billion, $12 billion. We may very well think it's worth $6 billion, and it has $3 billion of debt. In either case, you're now about someone's several billion dollars of equity check, and they're very likely to logically want to continue to sustain that. So what does sustain it mean, which brings us to your software wall question. So yes, there are a number of refinancings that are going to have to take place. And again, there will be different categories of software performance, which will be a lot clearer a few years from now than it is now and who fits in what category. And I think when we get to that place, look, it's safe to say as today, we are working down our exposure to software given the level of uncertainty. We'll all know a lot more in a few years. But I think just to cut to the chase, you're going to end up in a circumstance where you're going to need to see a lot of equity injected by private equity firms into these companies in order to continue forward even when they have many billions of dollars of equity value they are holding on their books or understand that they have. So it's going to be working together with those. Some will I think most will work probably quite amicably. Some will probably be a little more challenging. But again, that's what we've done since the day we started. happens to be in the software arena this time. It's been in other arenas before. So don't minimize it, but I don't overstate it. I think we'll come to a point and there'll be a subset of companies that will be the more contentious ones, and then we'll work our way through. And that's what leads to having some amount of loss rate, which is endemic to not just private credit. It's going to be in public credit. It's going to be in high yield. It's going to be in equities. And last comment, which we've all seen a lot of volatility, certainly a downward direction for sure, in software equities. But you look year-over-year and the change in the software indices is actually quite modest. And yet here, we're talking about things that are down in the 40% on average loan to value. So I think there's a lot of spring and cushion and our job is to be prepared and ready, and we are.