Blue Owl Capital Inc.
$9.69
-3.8%Blue Owl Capital Inc. operates as an asset manager. It offers permanent capital base solutions that enables it to offer a holistic platform to middle market companies, large alternative asset managers, and corporate real estate owners and tenants. The company provides direct lending products that offer private credit products comprising diversified, technology, first lien, and opportunistic lending to middle-market companies; GP capital solutions products, which offers capital solutions, including GP minority equity investments, GP debt financing, and professional sports minority investments to large private capital managers; and real estate products that focuses on structuring sale-leaseback transactions, which includes triple net leases. It offers its solutions through permanent capital vehicles, as well as long-dated private funds. The company is headquartered in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 80.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E 80.8, earnings yield +1.2%, momentum -3.8%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +3.6%, ROIC +4.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.8%, ROE +3.6%, ROIC +4.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +51.4%, momentum -3.8%, net margin +2.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Positive earnings growth shows the company is improving its profitability over time.
Price-EPS Relationship
Earnings are growing but price is falling—potential undervaluation opportunity if growth continues.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 49.1%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Very high P/E suggests premium valuation or high growth expectations.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Interest or tax burden: Strong operational performance but thin net margins indicate high interest expenses or unfavorable tax position eating into profits.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Negative working capital with limited cash reserves requires immediate attention—potential liquidity crisis if not addressed promptly.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that OWL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.78, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 27.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 15.78, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 27.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
Blue Owl Capital Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $5.32M worth of OWL shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
353.6K
5.32M
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+5.3M
+$5.32M
9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
Ostrover Douglas I
Director, Officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer
$2.38M
Packer Craig
Director, Officer: Co-President
$1.25M
Lipschultz Marc S
Director, Officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer
$1.19M
Kirshenbaum Alan
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$501K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $5.32M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Compelling insider conviction: The combination of strong buy/sell ratio and multiple buyers suggests insiders see attractive risk/reward. Consider this alongside fundamental analysis for confirmation.
owl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on OWL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.