$105.88
-1.2%Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical coal for the steel industry. It operates two underground mines located in Alabama. The company sells its metallurgical coal to a customer base of blast furnace steel producers located primarily in Europe, South America, and Asia. It also sells natural gas, which is extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $226.1M | $222.9M | $219.9M | $216.8M | $213.8M | $210.9M | $207.9M | $205.1M | $202.2M | $199.4M |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$63.2M | -$62.3M | -$61.4M | -$60.6M | -$59.7M | -$58.9M | -$58.1M | -$57.3M | -$56.5M | -$55.7M |
| Owner Earnings | $162.9M | $160.7M | $158.4M | $156.2M | $154.1M | $151.9M | $149.8M | $147.8M | $145.7M | $143.7M |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $150.8M | $137.7M | $125.8M | $114.8M | $104.9M | $95.8M | $87.4M | $79.8M | $72.9M | $66.6M |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.