Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
$10.89
-1.0%Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 13.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 13.4, earnings yield +7.4%, momentum -1.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +6.8%, ROIC +4.7%).
Profitability stack: net margin +17.8%, ROE +6.8%, ROIC +4.7%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +81.3%, momentum -1.0%, net margin +17.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.50 to a high of 13.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.50 to a high of 13.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.65M worth of ARI shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
4.6K
49.99K
-50K
-$50K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
52.1K
529.13K
-529K
-$529K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
52.1K
561.27K
-561K
-$561K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
52.1K
511.82K
-512K
-$512K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Rothstein Stuart
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$1.60M
Whonder Carmencita N.M.
Director
$50K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.65M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
ari Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ARI by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.