ARI - NYSE
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.
$10.89
-1.0%Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotApollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ARI stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.50 to a high of 13.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.50 to a high of 13.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Forward Estimates of Revenue
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.
Reasonable estimate spread indicates general agreement with normal forecast variance.
Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.
Key Insight
Limited coverage with volatile estimates: Few analysts covering despite significant projected changes may indicate information gaps or emerging risks.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Forward Estimates of Net Income
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.
Wide estimate range reveals significant forecast uncertainty and potential volatility.
Analyst skepticism evident—carefully evaluate risks before investment decisions.
Key Insight
Declining estimates with wide disagreement: Analysts projecting contraction without consensus signals significant business uncertainty—exercise caution.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Forward Estimates of EPS
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.
Wide estimate range reveals significant forecast uncertainty and potential volatility.
Analyst skepticism evident—carefully evaluate risks before investment decisions.
Key Insight
Declining estimates with wide disagreement: Analysts projecting contraction without consensus signals significant business uncertainty—exercise caution.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Forward Estimates of EBIT
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.
Reasonable estimate spread indicates general agreement with normal forecast variance.
Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.
Key Insight
Limited coverage with volatile estimates: Few analysts covering despite significant projected changes may indicate information gaps or emerging risks.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Forward Estimates of EBITDA
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.
Reasonable estimate spread indicates general agreement with normal forecast variance.
Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.
Key Insight
Limited coverage with volatile estimates: Few analysts covering despite significant projected changes may indicate information gaps or emerging risks.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Forward Estimates of SG&A Expense
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.
Reasonable estimate spread indicates general agreement with normal forecast variance.
Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.
Key Insight
Limited coverage with volatile estimates: Few analysts covering despite significant projected changes may indicate information gaps or emerging risks.
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.65M worth of ARI shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
4.6K
49.99K
-50K
-$50K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
52.1K
529.13K
-529K
-$529K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
52.1K
561.27K
-561K
-$561K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
52.1K
511.82K
-512K
-$512K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Rothstein Stuart
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$1.60M
Whonder Carmencita N.M.
Director
$50K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.65M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
Related Guides
Continue your ARI research with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.