ARI - NYSE

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

ARIยทNYSE

$10.89

-1.0%
Real EstateREIT - Mortgage

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. operates as a real estate investment trust (REIT) that originates, acquires, invests in, and manages commercial first mortgage loans, subordinate financings, and other commercial real estate-related debt investments in the United States. It is qualified as a REIT under the Internal Revenue Code. As a REIT, it would not be subject to federal income taxes, if the company distributes at least 90% of its REIT taxable income to its stockholders. Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is based in New York, New York.

StatementsValue Model

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$1.43B
EPS0.8100
P/E Ratio13.44
Earnings Date08/04/2026
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc.

Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

ARI ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that ARI has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $10.89, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc..

HIDDEN
Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $10.89

Owner Earnings Valuation Tool

Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation

Historical Financial Data

Base year metrics used for projections

$
%
$
%
$
$

Projection Settings

Forecast period and terminal assumptions

%
%

DCF Valuation Summary

Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share

Present Value$29.3B
+ Cash & Equivalents$139.8M
Firm Value$29.4B
- Debt$7.9B
Equity Value$21.5B
/ Shares Outstanding138,943,831B
DCF Value$155
UNDERVALUED BY 1322%

Owner Earnings Projections

Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings

Metric
Year 1
Year 2
Year 3
Year 4
Year 5
Year 6
Year 7
Year 8
Year 9
Year 10
Operating Cash Flow
$196.1M
$269.8M
$371.2M
$510.8M
$702.8M
$967.0M
$1.3B
$1.8B
$2.5B
$3.5B
Maintenance CapEx
-$27.6M
-$37.9M
-$52.2M
-$71.8M
-$98.8M
-$136.0M
-$187.1M
-$257.5M
-$354.2M
-$487.4M
Owner Earnings
$168.5M
$231.9M
$319.0M
$439.0M
$604.0M
$831.0M
$1.1B
$1.6B
$2.2B
$3.0B
Discount Factor
0.926
0.857
0.794
0.735
0.681
0.630
0.583
0.540
0.500
0.463
Present Value
$156.0M
$198.8M
$253.3M
$322.7M
$411.1M
$523.7M
$667.2M
$850.0M
$1.1B
$1.4B
Terminal Value represents 80.0% of Enterprise Value

Related Guides

Blog Categories

Continue your ARI research with focused valuation guides.

DCF Modeling

Improve assumptions for intrinsic value accuracy.

Forecasting

Calibrate growth paths and terminal value behavior.

WACC

Refine discount-rate logic for valuation quality.

Cost of Capital

Match risk profile to expected return assumptions.

Research Paths

Pick your next lens
1

Snapshot

Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.

2

Value Model

Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.

3

Statements

Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.

4

Earnings Call

Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.

5

Dividends

Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.

6

Analyst Expectations

Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.