Alaska Air Group, Inc.
$41.87
-1.0%Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 49.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 49.3, earnings yield +2.0%, momentum -1.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +2.4%, ROIC +1.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +0.7%, ROE +2.4%, ROIC +1.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +79.8%, momentum -1.0%, net margin +0.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Alaska Air Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that ALK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 63.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 54.00 to a high of 71.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 63.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 54.00 to a high of 71.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Alaska Air Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $4.28M worth of ALK shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
56.9K
3.20M
-3.2M
-$3.20M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
19.3K
1.07M
-1.1M
-$1.07M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Tackett Shane R
Officer: Evp And Cfo
$2.21M
Harrison Andrew R
Officer: Evp And Cco
$1.51M
Levine Kyle B
Officer: Evp Corp Pub Aff & Chf Leg Off
$518K
Halverson Emily
Officer: Vp Finance, Controller & Treas
$40K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $4.28M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
alk Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on ALK by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.