$41.87
-1.0%Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo air transportation services. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. It flies to approximately 120 destinations throughout North America. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $624.5M | $312.3M | $156.1M | $78.1M | $39.0M | $19.5M | $9.8M | $4.9M | $2.4M | $1.2M |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$158.8M | -$79.4M | -$39.7M | -$19.9M | -$9.9M | -$5.0M | -$2.5M | -$1.2M | -$620.3K | -$310.2K |
| Owner Earnings | $465.7M | $232.9M | $116.4M | $58.2M | $29.1M | $14.6M | $7.3M | $3.6M | $1.8M | $909.6K |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $431.2M | $199.6M | $92.4M | $42.8M | $19.8M | $9.2M | $4.2M | $2.0M | $910.0K | $421.3K |
Snapshot
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Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.