J. Bruce Chan
Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for the questions here. Maybe just starting from the top. I know there's been a lot of news flow on the automotive OEM side, and you guys usually get some pretty good visibility into production. So thanks for the call there. But, you know, maybe if you could just address you know, what your customers are saying as far as the different tariff scenarios on Canada and Mexico, And I know it's early and hard to say, but if we think about you know, kind of a worst-case scenario here, would that you know, maybe look like a 2021-esque scenario where we see plant closures. You could just help us to maybe, you know, quantify the risk there. Bruce, I'll start. So first of all, our Canadian business is only about $10.5 million of annual sales, and our Mexican business is just south of $50 million. So Universal's foreign exposure to tariffs is not very big. Right? So around 3% to 3.5% of our 2025 guide. That being said, I mean, I think similar to what happened in, you know, during strikes or, you know, when there were some challenges in the supply chains and there's a lot of components that come from either overseas or from I about those items, you know, I would expect that if there are any challenges at the border or any challenges on tariffs that relate to a specific component, it definitely could impact us, but I don't really think we have any insight into that as of right now. Yeah. Bruce, this is Tim. I would agree with that. All of our conversations with our customers that have really shown what Jude just said. There's been no real guidance, but we feel comfortable in everything that we have positioned right now if something should happen. I mean, this is a long-term play in Mexico. We continue to build that out. It's going to be part of the global supply chain right near shoring. And that's truly what what's happened over the years. It is a global supply chain. And the autos of the different brands do depend on a global network. But we think we're positioned both in Mexico. We think we're positioned also from an import standpoint on the drayage side of it to be able to capture what will continue to be a global supply chain. Network. Okay. That's really helpful. I know it's not just you guys, so I appreciate that, that perspective. But maybe just sticking with contract logistics here. You know, I know you typically see a little bit of seasonal degradation in the margins from Q3 to Q4, but it looks like it was a little bit more pronounced this year. So, you know, maybe you could just help us to parse out, you know, how much of that was the mix from Parsec And, you know, Jude, maybe what the right way to think about, you know, structural margin impact from Parsec on the segment would be, like, going forward. Yeah. For sure. So just a couple of things. One is that the Parsec, the company that we bought historically had between 8% and 12% operating margins. But when you start factoring in the purchase accounting that's required for GAAP, it's gonna layer in about $6 to $8 million of other costs specifically related to the amortization of intangibles and some amortization additional amortization on equipment purchases. That for GAAP is gonna go down to one to two. So that's one of the reasons that we are gonna start talking a little bit more, Bruce, about EBITDA because we believe EBITDA will be a much better reflection because we're not gonna shy away from buying really great companies just because there's a purchase accounting hit to our operating margin. So I would say Parsec is one piece of that. And, also, what we started seeing in Q3, Bruce, was that, especially in our dedicated transportation group, we really started seeing, you know, some plants operating, you know, from six days to five and then going from three shifts to two. So that had a larger impact on dedicated's margin in the quarter just because you have all those fixed costs associated with tractors and trailers, and you're not getting that utilization out of the asset, there's gonna be a little bit of margin degradation. So although the autos have guided I think as you're aware, you know, around the 16 million SAAR for 2025, which would be very similar to what happened in 2024, it just looks like that ramp-up may be more a mid to late year story than really starting off gangbusters in Q1. Okay. Got it. That's also really helpful color. And then maybe just one more before I turn it over and hop back in the queue. On the intermodal side, you know, obviously, some continued challenges there. I know you're making some changes, but if you could just give us a little bit more insight into what the specific drivers of the, you know, kind of outside degradation in the segment were, and, you know, what the kind of path to progress or the path to improvement, especially In SoCal, it looks like as you think about 2025. Sure. I want to highlight a couple of things because as you can imagine, that's been all of our focal points is to make sure that we put the intermodal division on a path to profitability and success. So we looked at it from a top-down approach, and the top-down approach would mean some new leadership being brought into the segment, to help us better plan and accelerate where we think we need to be. We also included in that leadership a new sales executive as well as a large increase in our sales force kinda rationalized that on where we wanted to attack the different customers in the United States. So we feel really good about where we are positioned going into 2025 from a touchpoint with our customers and being able to evaluate and sell and close new deals. In conjunction with that, we thought we needed a new level of visibility for customers as well as our employees. So we're instituting some new technology that will roll out over the year 2025 to better position our people to be successful to give our customers a clear look at where their freight is in the intermodal supply chain. So we're also excited about that. There's been a lot of heavy lifting for all these things to get it positioned so we can have a full crack at it in 2025. The other thing that we've worked pretty hard on is the efficiencies. Right? So what have we done to in Southern California in specific, we've really rationalized the headcount. We've consolidated potentially facilities where it makes sense. We've rationalized our leases. We'd look at should we be subleasing, And we also did some property rationalization. You know? We are investing in the future, and we wanna make sure that when we make those commitments, we have a solid foundation to see that particular business growth. In conjunction with that, in Southern California, and the rest of the intermodal unit, we'll be looking for additional efficiencies from essential as process of how we conduct our interfaces with our customers and our interface with our drivers. So we'll continue to report on that, and you'll see the results of that in the coming quarters with our successes as we climb out of that. And although the Southern California market has been a big challenge, we think we have some, you know, some good position on a pipeline. We're really being aggressive on how we approach customers in the first quarter and beyond to make sure that we continue to add additional volume into the network. And I think that's the biggest thing. We've rationalized the consolidated facilities. We've optimized our team to be ready for that uplift. And now what we need to do is still, the funnel full of freight. And the basket's full. We just have to be very competitive because I will tell you this. We have not, on the intermodal side, watched out of a very competitive capacity environment. There's still capacity in the hopper as some of it's falling out, but it's very competitive from a rating standpoint. So as we see that start to relieve itself and we start to grow some legs out of that, you'll see exponentially, we'll make some continued progress not only in Southern California, but we'll see that type of opportunity around the United States. Okay. Great. And is the demand environment right now conducive to that, or do you need to see, you know, any further upward inflection in the market order to get that done? I would say that the market's been it's been somewhat flat, but I'm optimistic and I'm optimistic for a couple things. Right? We're also seeing additional throughput on bids and opportunities on the truckload sector. We're seeing some additional opportunities on the intermodal network. And I think those two going hand in hand if truckload also picks up at any degree or rate, it also takes some of the and sometimes that capacity shifts to truckload and opens up a more dynamic environment for intermodal and not much capacity being addressed to that intermodal type of freight. So I still think the rates are somewhat like I said in my prepared remarks, I don't I think we've seen the bottom, and now it's just a matter of how we climb out of it. Remember, the first part of 2020 or February will encompass the 29th with the Chinese New Year. So we'll see some softness you know, in the end of February and March we'll we know that's coming. It's just how we climb out of it after that. So I expect as we get into the second quarter, we should see some additional opportunities come. Alright. Great. Thanks. I'll hop back in the queue. Appreciate it.