W. Marvin Rush
Be happy to. The answer would be cautiously, but maybe not even cautiously, but optimistic that yes, there will be a prebuy before we get into the 2027 emissions regulations. You know, based upon not just the regulations, right, but you can incorporate regulations all you want. I was around—well, you were probably still in high school back in 2010—when we went to SCR. We were supposed to have this big, you know, buy and buy. Obviously, it was the worst year in forty years. Right? We had a little economic problem going on, which—so what I am reflecting on is not just the fact that the 2027 emissions, but the fact that their business is improving. And I am not going to get ahead of myself and say it is, like, accelerating or ramping up rapidly, but it is improving, especially over the last ninety days. I do not have to tell you. You know, spot rates have been up. Five to six months ago, most people would have thought going into their contract rates were probably going to be flat. Now people are hoping to get contract rates up, you know, mid-singles. Right? That line between spot and contract has moved nicely with where spot was so much lower before. So, you know, your business has to be good. And I am not going to say it is great, but you at least need to be able to see forward. Right? And that is important. We had so much uncertainty last year with regulations, with EPA regulations, with tariffs, and everything else. So now you can focus on these regulations and do it while your business is, you know, gradually getting better. It may not be reflected in all the first quarter reports, but I think most customers feel that their business is improving. When you talk about—we are talking about over-the-road customers right now because that still is the biggest segment, even though we are more diversified than most folks when it comes to vocational and over the road. But we still need that over-the-road customer to be solid. Right? It is the biggest piece of what you do still. And so combining, you know, some—most—we do not have full clarity, but we know we are not changing it. We know it is going to be 35. The government—when I am talking about NOx and stuff—so we realize that is going to be there. You know, they have not clarified everything, but you pretty much know what the cost is. And, you know, when you are doing something like this, the cost is one thing. It is, you know, a little bit new aftertreatment systems, and I watched 2010 when every particulate filter was clogged up when we came out of SCR back in ’10. I am sure there are a lot of people that still remember that. You know, you can have issues when you come out. So I am just giving you background. So you combine the EPA issue, clarity on tariffs, which has given clarity to pricing throughout this year, which we did not have last year, and their business getting better. So I am optimistic. The issue will be this. The issue will be we are going to run out of time. So, you know, it is already—we are, what, eight days away, nine days—what is it? Ten days away, excuse me, from the end of this month. I apologize. And we will be into March already. So I do expect order intake to remain what we have seen over the last couple months in that range, if not maybe even a little more because I think people are lining up. So I do believe Class 8 order intake is going to continue solid. You have to remember, we had a five or six month run last year, a six month run that was close to being less than the last two months. Five months for sure were close to being less than the last two months. So, I mean, all that—I know it is a long-winded answer, but you folks are used to my long-winded answers. I try to give you a full perspective here. Yes, the emissions piece is there. Yes, that is important. But it is also important that people can at least see a little further in their business and have clarity, which we did not have. So the combination of the two—yeah, I think we are going to get—you know, and I think you may run into a problem with supply side, problem with tier-two and tier-three suppliers. We are not there yet by any stretch because there was a lot of backlog to fill up. But it will be interesting to see where we are sixty days from now. So, I mean, a lot of customers are realizing they better—I think some go—well, I know they are—that they better get it on board now and not wait till summer, or we may run out of—it is hard to ramp up for that shorter period of time. You know, OEMs will ramp up. There is only so much you can do when you do not have clarity past, you know, January 1, really. But I do not see—just going further—I do not see ’27 to be a huge drop off either because we are going to get started. It is going to be—we are going to get started light here in Q1. Okay? There is no question. Lighter than we were last year in Q1. So you start in a hole. So, you know, the year could be similar, maybe slightly up. It is going to be, you know, packed into the back three quarters of the year, should you say?