W. Rush
Okay. Well, great. Well, I just so happened, I spent the last couple of days in lovely San Diego, California at ATA, which is the largest truck convention -- our customer truck convention there is. So I met with quite a few customers while I was out there. And I think as I mentioned in one of the paragraphs there in the press release, and I mentioned a little bit earlier, this is the first time I'm going to say, I mean, we've been 3 years in a freight recession, 3, okay? This usually doesn't last, but 12 to 16 months, I have never seen in my career, it go so long, right? And you could figure out why supply was not coming out, right? There's supply and then there's demand. I can't really speak to demand as well. That's more of an economic-driven, the only economy-driven stuff around tariffs and just around the economy itself. But from a supply side, the crazy thing is it just has not come out of the market. It always comes out faster. And I think if you look at it after rates were way up in '21, '22 and they started coming down. That's been that 3-year row, just depressed freight rates from the customer perspective, especially on the truckload side, not so much on the LTL side, but on the truckload side for sure. And I think the government has finally got their arms around some of this when -- I mean, one of the things I learned while I was there is you read a lot and people are saying this is non-domiciled driver thing and the English-speaking proficiency, but really around the non-domiciled driver thing. Most some of the numbers I've heard before, well, if we can enforce that, it's going to be up to the states to enforce that, okay? And I've heard numbers of 5% or something. Well, I was there. Some of the carriers I talked to said that was way understated. And like 15 to 20 of the states are really starting to enforce it right now and that they all have to get on board. And so over the next little bit, it could take out up to 15% of the drivers, which are probably some of the smaller carriers have been using to hang on and stay. Those are the carriers that usually go out in a freight recession first, not your more well-capitalized bigger guys, but the smaller carriers are always that variable piece that get in and get out based upon where rates are. And so that's one of the things that I believe will, for sure, help. Also, I think we -- people continue to buy trucks after we came off of allocation, we should have not slowed down selling trucks or producing trucks quicker than we did because there's 2 sides to it, right? That's the attrition side. Well, the other side is what are you producing, right? Well, right now, the last -- the back half of this year, I mean, you're talking we're going to be down in production 30%, 35%, 40% at all the OEMs combined. I'm not sure exactly where it is, but it's down dramatically. And I think that's going to continue into the first quarter for sure, maybe the first half. If you add that, you think about that, so you're shutting down the supply side, the intake side, you're taking people out of the attrition side. Well, you should start to get a more rightsized or balanced fleet out there with what market demand is, right, or what freight tonnage is. And I think you can see that if you look out. Now on top of that, even though the carriers, and I'm on their side, would prefer that it's changing the law that's going into effect right now. The current law, the way it stands is 35 -- don't give me, it's changing to 35 particulates on the NOx side. It's 200 currently, okay? But the new law says 35. I'm with the carriers. They would prefer a pause on 35 and they -- but I'm not in the middle of that, but you see folks and customers that are putting pressure on the EPA to pause that law. Right now, I can't tell you where it goes. But if it stays as is and goes into effect, I do believe it will change -- if it stays as is, you will see change in the warranties will come down because a lot of the cost for that is going to be more. But it's still going to add more cost where tariffs have added more cost to an industry that's been in a 3-year recession. But people are asking for, like I said, carriers are asking to say 200, and I support them on that. I don't know. But currently, if you look at the law, it said it's going to go to 35. Well, that's going to add more cost also by the end of next year. So you tie that in with tariff costs, which are happening for sure, starting Saturday with the new tariffs, I mean, the tariffs already all year, but with the new 232 rule and how that affects everything, you're going to put -- the EPA thing will only increase cost on trucks at the end of next year. So you add that with a better rightsized fleet, for the environment. That's why I wrote you can see a much stronger back half of next year. Now I would prefer that we also have freight tonnage growth with that. So it's not just regulatory driven. I think if we can get some freight growth, which I hope we get some certainty. I mean uncertainty for everybody has been the craziest thing trying to run a business all year, okay? But we get some certainty around whatever it is, add that in, like I said, take it supply out. And even if it stays that 35% will help truck sales, but I'd like for my customer to be more healthy. And I think getting the right-sized fleet is the most important thing with a pickup in freight tonnage. And that's why you see some optimism. I'm more optimistic now for that -- the big over-the-road market. Look, that's still 2/3 of the market that's out there, all right? Vocational is awesome. And we do more in vocational than 1/3 of our business, but that's still the largest segment, and it has been obviously headwinds for everyone, my customers more than me for the last 3 years. So I know that's a long-winded answer, but you're used to my long-winded answers, I'm hoping. And that's sort of the way I see it right now. I have a little more optimism than I have had after coming back from San Diego, that's not happening right now, okay? Remember, we had 5 months, 6 months of the lowest order intake since 2009. I'm the tail of the dog. So we are going to feel it in Q4 and Q1 without question. At the same time, it feels good to really believe that you can see real drivers to get back and get the market rightsized long as the economy stays in good shape. That's sort of the way I see it.