Provident Financial Holdings, Inc.
$16.90
-0.15%Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as the holding company for Provident Savings Bank, F.S.B. that provides community banking services to consumers and small to mid-sized businesses in the Inland Empire region of Southern California. Its deposit products include checking, savings, and money market accounts, as well as time deposits; and loan portfolio consists of single-family, multi-family, commercial real estate, construction, mortgage, commercial business, and consumer loans. The company also offers investment services comprising the sale of investment products, such as annuities and mutual funds; and trustee services for real estate transactions. It operates through 12 full-service banking offices in Riverside County and one full-service banking office in San Bernardino County. The company was founded in 1956 and is based in Riverside, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 18.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 18.2, earnings yield +5.5%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +4.9%, ROIC +1.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +10.4%, ROE +4.9%, ROIC +1.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +89.7%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +10.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Slight earnings decline may be temporary. Monitor future quarters for trend reversal.
Price-EPS Relationship
Price is rising despite declining earnings—caution advised as valuation may be stretched.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 9.7%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Moderate P/E ratio suggests fair market valuation relative to earnings.
Key Insight
Despite declining earnings (-0.0%), the stock price has risen (+9.7%). This disconnect suggests investors may be optimistic about future turnaround, but earnings recovery is critical to sustain the valuation.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PROV stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 16.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 16.00 to a high of 16.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Provident Financial Holdings, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $156K worth of PROV shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
3.0K
50.76K
-51K
-$51K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
4.8K
75.07K
-75K
-$75K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
1.9K
29.88K
-30K
-$30K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Wertz Gwendolyn
Officer: Senior Vice President
$105K
Weiant David
Officer: Senior Vice President
$51K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $156K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
prov Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PROV by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.