NBT Bancorp Inc.
$44.79
-1.6%NBT Bancorp Inc., a financial holding company, provides commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services. Its deposit products include demand deposit, savings, negotiable order of withdrawal, money market deposit, and certificate of deposit accounts. The company's loan portfolio comprises commercial and industrial, commercial real estate, agricultural, and commercial construction loans; indirect and direct consumer, home equity, mortgages, business banking loans, and commercial loans; and residential real estate loans. It also provides trust and investment services; financial planning and life insurance services; and retirement plan consulting and recordkeeping services. In addition, the company offers insurance products comprising personal property and casualty, business liability, and commercial insurance, as well as other products and services through 24-hour online, mobile, and telephone channels that enable customers to check balances, make deposits, transfer funds, pay bills, access statements, apply for loans, and access various other products and services. As of December 31, 2021, it had 140 branches and 164 ATMs in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Maine. NBT Bancorp Inc. was founded in 1856 and is headquartered in Norwich, New York.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 13.4).
Valuation inputs: P/E 13.4, earnings yield +7.5%, momentum -1.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +8.9%, ROIC +1.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +19.5%, ROE +8.9%, ROIC +1.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +88.1%, momentum -1.6%, net margin +19.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
NBT Bancorp Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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NBT Bancorp Inc. Fair Value Envelope
NBT Bancorp Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
NBT Bancorp Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
NBT Bancorp Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
NBT Bancorp Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NBTB stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 46.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 42.00 to a high of 49.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 46.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 42.00 to a high of 49.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
NBT Bancorp Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $2.06M and sold $302K worth of NBTB shares, resulting in $1.75M of net buying activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
2.4K
99.12K
-99K
-$99K
3-6 Months
45.5K
1.95M
4.4K
202.77K
+1.8M
+$1.75M
6-9 Months
2.5K
102.25K
0
0.00
+102K
+$102K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Delaney Timothy E
Director
$2.06M
Top Sellers
Wiles Amy
Officer: Evp, Chief Risk And Credit
$203K
Sparks Martin Randolph
Officer: Evp,General Counsel,Secretary
$99K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $1.75M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Exceptional buy/sell ratio. Buying dramatically outweighs selling—one of the strongest possible insider signals.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
nbtb Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NBTB by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.