Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock
$15.52
-5.4%Jefferson Capital, Inc. provides debt recovery solutions and other related services in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Latin America. The company primarily purchases portfolios of previously charged-off consumer receivables at deep discounts to face value and manage them by working with individuals as they repay their obligations and work toward financial recovery. It offers consumer receivables, including credit card, secured and unsecured automotive, telecom and utilities, and other receivables. The company also provides debt servicing and other portfolio management services to credit originators for nonperforming loans. Jefferson Capital, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Sartell, Minnesota.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 2.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 2.5, earnings yield +40.3%, momentum -5.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +39.5%, ROIC +13.1%).
Profitability stack: net margin +30.6%, ROE +39.5%, ROIC +13.1%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +77.2%, momentum -5.4%, net margin +30.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Positive earnings growth shows the company is improving its profitability over time.
Price-EPS Relationship
Earnings are growing but price is falling—potential undervaluation opportunity if growth continues.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 16.3%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+15.3%) is outpacing price appreciation (+-16.3%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Fair Value Envelope
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that JCAP stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 26.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 21.00 to a high of 29.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 26.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 21.00 to a high of 29.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Jefferson Capital, Inc. Common Stock Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $314.13M worth of JCAP shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
3-6 Months
0
0.00
11.4M
223.81M
-223.8M
-$223.81M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
6.0M
90.32M
-90.3M
-$90.32M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Jcf Iv Jcap Holding L.P.
10 Percent Owner
$215.92M
J.C. Flowers Iv L.P.
10 Percent Owner
$90.32M
Burton David M.
Director, Officer: See Remarks
$7.89M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $314.13M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
jcap Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on JCAP by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.