First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
$10.53
+0.86%First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 32.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 32.9, earnings yield +3.0%, momentum +0.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +3.1%, ROIC +2.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +1.6%, ROE +3.1%, ROIC +2.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +64.0%, momentum +0.9%, net margin +1.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FWRG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 19.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 19.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $169.19M worth of FWRG shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
74.7K
937.06K
-937K
-$937K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
12.3K
209.61K
-210K
-$210K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
4.4M
77.75M
-77.7M
-$77.75M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
5.1M
90.30M
-90.3M
-$90.30M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Advent International, L.P.
10 Percent Owner
$166.25M
Tomasso Christopher Anthony
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$2.11M
Kussell William A
Director
$210K
Hope H Melville Iii
Officer: Cfo And Treasurer
$141K
Wolszczak Jay Anthony
Officer: Chief Legal Officer, Gc & Secy
$128K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $169.19M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
FWRG has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
fwrg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FWRG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.