FWRG - NASDAQ
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
$10.53
+0.86%First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name. As of March 23, 2022, it operated 341 company-owned restaurants and 94 franchised restaurants in 28 states in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is headquartered in Bradenton, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FWRG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 19.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 17.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.00 to a high of 19.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Forward Estimates of Revenue
Forward Growth Analysis
Solid growth trajectory indicates healthy business performance and competitive positioning.
Moderate coverage—sufficient for guidance but may lack depth of large-cap analysis.
Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.
Positive analyst consensus with strong growth expectations and forecast confidence.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Forward Estimates of Net Income
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Moderate coverage—sufficient for guidance but may lack depth of large-cap analysis.
Wide estimate range reveals significant forecast uncertainty and potential volatility.
Analyst skepticism evident—carefully evaluate risks before investment decisions.
Key Insight
Declining estimates with wide disagreement: Analysts projecting contraction without consensus signals significant business uncertainty—exercise caution.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Forward Estimates of EPS
Forward Growth Analysis
Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.
Moderate coverage—sufficient for guidance but may lack depth of large-cap analysis.
Wide estimate range reveals significant forecast uncertainty and potential volatility.
Analyst skepticism evident—carefully evaluate risks before investment decisions.
Key Insight
Declining estimates with wide disagreement: Analysts projecting contraction without consensus signals significant business uncertainty—exercise caution.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Forward Estimates of EBIT
Forward Growth Analysis
Solid growth trajectory indicates healthy business performance and competitive positioning.
Moderate coverage—sufficient for guidance but may lack depth of large-cap analysis.
Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.
Positive analyst consensus with strong growth expectations and forecast confidence.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Forward Estimates of EBITDA
Forward Growth Analysis
Strong growth expectations signal robust business momentum and market opportunity expansion.
Moderate coverage—sufficient for guidance but may lack depth of large-cap analysis.
Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.
Positive analyst consensus with strong growth expectations and forecast confidence.
Key Insight
Compelling growth story with analyst consensus: Strong projected growth combined with narrow estimate spread suggests high-conviction opportunity.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Forward Estimates of SG&A Expense
Forward Growth Analysis
Strong growth expectations signal robust business momentum and market opportunity expansion.
Moderate coverage—sufficient for guidance but may lack depth of large-cap analysis.
Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.
Positive analyst consensus with strong growth expectations and forecast confidence.
Key Insight
Compelling growth story with analyst consensus: Strong projected growth combined with narrow estimate spread suggests high-conviction opportunity.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $169.19M worth of FWRG shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
74.7K
937.06K
-937K
-$937K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
12.3K
209.61K
-210K
-$210K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
4.4M
77.75M
-77.7M
-$77.75M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
5.1M
90.30M
-90.3M
-$90.30M
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Advent International, L.P.
10 Percent Owner
$166.25M
Tomasso Christopher Anthony
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$2.11M
Kussell William A
Director
$210K
Hope H Melville Iii
Officer: Cfo And Treasurer
$141K
Wolszczak Jay Anthony
Officer: Chief Legal Officer, Gc & Secy
$128K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $169.19M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
Related Guides
Continue your FWRG research with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.