Fossil Group, Inc.
$4.01
-3.4%Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accessories in the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. The company's products include traditional watches, smartwatches, jewelry, handbags, small leather goods, belts, and sunglasses. It also manufactures and distributes private label brands, as well as purchases and resells branded products in non-FOSSIL branded retail stores. The company offers its products under its proprietary brands, such as FOSSIL, SKAGEN, MICHELE, RELIC, and ZODIAC; and under the licensed brands, including ARMANI EXCHANGE, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KATE SPADE NEW YORK, MICHAEL KORS, PUMA, TORY BURCH, Skechers, and BMW. The company sells its products through company-owned retail and outlet stores, department stores, specialty retail stores, specialty watch and jewelry stores, mass market stores, e-commerce sites, licensed and franchised FOSSIL retail stores, and retail concessions, as well as sells its products on airlines and cruise ships. As of January 2, 2022, it operated 370 stores worldwide. The company was formerly known as Fossil, Inc. and changed its name to Fossil Group, Inc. in May 2013. Fossil Group, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Richardson, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -2.8).
Valuation inputs: P/E -2.8, earnings yield N/A, momentum -3.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -76.1%, ROIC +5.9%).
Profitability stack: net margin -7.8%, ROE -76.1%, ROIC +5.9%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +87.4%, momentum -3.4%, net margin -7.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Fossil Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Fossil Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Fossil Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Fossil Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Fossil Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Fossil Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that FOSL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 7.00 to a high of 7.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Fossil Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $842K worth of FOSL shares, with no selling activity reported.
3 Months
46.3K
203.36K
0
0.00
+203K
+$203K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
289.7K
638.87K
0
0.00
+639K
+$639K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Schoppert Wendy Lee
Director
$305K
Fogliato Franco
Director, Officer: Ceo
$182K
Coulter Suzanne M
Director
$102K
Martin Joe T
Officer: Chief Commercial Officer
$100K
Tifford Gail B
Director
$79K
Top Sellers
No selling activity
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bullish signal with $842K net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
No Dividend Yield Data
FOSL has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
fosl Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on FOSL by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.