AMERISAFE, Inc.
$30.15
-2.1%AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company's workers' compensation insurance policies provide benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. It serves small to mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in DeRidder, Louisiana.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E 12.2, earnings yield +8.2%, momentum -2.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +18.7%, ROIC +14.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin +14.9%, ROE +18.7%, ROIC +14.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +85.1%, momentum -2.1%, net margin +14.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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AMERISAFE, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
AMERISAFE, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AMSF stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 34.00 to a high of 55.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 44.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 34.00 to a high of 55.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
AMERISAFE, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $100K worth of AMSF shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
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3-6 Months
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6-9 Months
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2.5K
100.45K
-100K
-$100K
9-12 Months
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Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Omiridis Anastasios
Officer: Evp-Cfo
$100K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $100K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Insider Participation
1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
amsf Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AMSF by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.