Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
$27.68
-1.1%Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery and development of medicines in the field of cellular metabolism and adjacent areas of biology. The company offers PYRUKYND (mitapivat) an activator of both wild-type and a variety of mutant pyruvate kinase, PK, enzymes for the treatment of hemolytic anemias; and AG-946 that is in Phase I clinical study for treating hemolytic anemias and other indications. Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum -1.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -34.6%, ROIC -38.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -7.6%, ROE -34.6%, ROIC -38.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +8.0%, momentum -1.1%, net margin -7.6%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that AGIO stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 42.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 50.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 42.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 36.00 to a high of 50.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $5K and sold $1.62M worth of AGIO shares, resulting in $1.61M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
22.2K
769.80K
-770K
-$770K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
26.2K
731.70K
-732K
-$732K
6-9 Months
200
5.00K
2.7K
116.20K
-111K
-$111K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Gheuens Sarah
Officer: Chief Medical Officer
$5K
Top Sellers
Goff Brian
Director, Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$569K
Gheuens Sarah
Officer: Chief Medical Officer
$209K
Burns James William
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$193K
Milanova Tsveta
Officer: Chief Commercial Officer
$191K
Viswanadhan Krishnan
Officer: Chief Corp Dev & Strategy
$185K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.61M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
5 insider sellers vs. 1 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
No Dividend Yield Data
AGIO has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
agio Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on AGIO by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.