Steve Tschiegg - Director of Capital Markets & Investor Relations Richard G. Kyle - Chief Executive Officer, President and Director Philip D. Fracassa - Chief Financial Officer.

Stephen E. Volkmann - Jefferies LLC, Research Division Eli S. Lustgarten - Longbow Research LLC David Raso - ISI Group Inc., Research Division Steve Barger - KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Research Division.

Good morning. My name is Tony, and I'll be your conference operator today. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Timken's Second Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Mr. Tschiegg, you may begin your conference..

Thank you, and welcome to our Second Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. I'm Steve Tschiegg, the company's Director of Capital Markets and Investor Relations. We appreciate you joining us today. If after our call you have further questions, please feel free to contact me at (234) 262-7446.

Before we begin our remarks this morning, I wanted to point out that we posted on the company's website presentation materials that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarter results. You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link.

With me today are The Timken Company's President and CEO, Rich Kyle; and Phil Fracassa, our Chief Financial Officer. We have opening comments this morning from Rich and Phil before we open the call up for your questions.

[Operator Instructions] During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations.

Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we described in greater detail on today's press release and in our reports filed with SEC, which are available on the timken.com website.

We included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information and then its GAAP equivalent in the press release. Today's call is copyrighted by The Timken Company. Without the expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call. With that, I'll turn the call over to Rich..

first, our initiative to win in the marketplace and grow our business. Excluding the impact of Mobile exits, the results from the second quarter and our outlook for the second half are indicative of our efforts to deploy our disciplined model for profitable growth.

We completed the Schulz acquisition, further strengthening our process industry services business. Through our focus on challenging applications, we secured several programs within our Mobile business that will begin shipping in 2015. The combined impact of these wins will ramp over $100 million by 2016.

We are now seeing the benefit of past investments made in new products for the wind energy market in our Process segment, and we are continuing to invest in similar opportunities through our DeltaX initiative.

Our DeltaX initiative will accelerate our product development pace, which advances our goal of providing a complete offering of industrial bearings. On our margin enhancement initiative. We lowered our SG&A rate from the first quarter and are committed to lower our rate as a percentage of sales from the first half of the year to the second.

Our manufacturing cost initiative delivered results in the second quarter and is building momentum, and we continue to use a disciplined approach to pursue market opportunities to ensure our mix remains attractive. On capital allocation. We bought back 600,000 shares during the quarter.

This relatively light buyback pace does not reflect our current commitment to deploy our balance sheet. Since the spin was announced, the board indicated that we would remain lightly levered to allow the 2 companies' respective boards and management teams to deploy independent capital allocation plans post the spin.

We ended the second quarter with a net debt to cap level of 9%, with a 2015 target of 30% minimum. That remains our target and was the driver of the additional authorization to buy up to 10 million shares. We also indicated the intent to hold the dividend at $0.25 per share, despite the reduction in earnings from the deal spin.

This immediately moves us to the high end of our targeted dividend range. And finally, on our pensions, we remain committed to fulfilling our legacy obligations to our retirees and associates.

At the same time, we want to capitalize on our fully funded positions by stepping up our pursuit of options to reduce our future cash funding obligations, as well as reduce the earnings volatility that these plans generate.

Phil will share more color on the pension activities momentarily, and I will now turn it over to Phil to run through the results and the outlook..

noncash charges of $0.25 related to pension settlement, which I discussed earlier, and charges related to cost reduction and plant rationalization initiatives of $0.15. Partially offsetting these costs is the gain from the sale of land in Brazil of $0.20 that we booked in the first quarter.

Excluding these items, we expect adjusted earnings per share to range from $2.40 to $2.60 per share, which is unchanged from the estimate we provided in June. This reflects an adjusted EBIT margin of roughly 12% on a consolidated basis for the year.

Note that our EPS estimates exclude the impact of any potential charges that may result from the ongoing analysis in the Aerospace segment. For 2014, we expect cash from operating activities to be approximately $370 million. Free cash flow is expected to be $250 million after CapEx of $120 million. This is unchanged from our prior estimates.

So all in all, results in the quarter were in line with our expectations. We're making progress in the market, performing well operationally and delivering value to our shareholders. Let's open the line now so we can answer your questions.

Operator?.

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies..

First, I apologize. My head is spinning a little bit about what's adjusted and what's not.

And I'm curious, the $0.65 that you're saying is your adjusted number, are you saying that included $8 million of sort of onetime items from the Brazil tax and the inventory adjustment?.

Yes, Steve, that's correct. We typically -- because those are really operational in nature, we would include those in the adjusted results. So the $0.65 has been burdened by the $8 million, and the $8 million roughly translates to $0.06 on an adjusted basis..

Okay, so maybe $0.71-ish if I adjust your adjusted numbers?.

Yes..

Okay.

But those are basically onetime in nature, right?.

Yes, correct..

Okay.

Are there any other similar things that you might think of as sort of operating but are really onetime in nature that are in that full year adjusted guidance of $2.40 to $2.60?.

In the full year, I'd say no, not big enough. I mean, there's puts and takes quarter-to-quarter. But for the full year, no, not really anything significant enough to call out..

Okay, good. That's helpful. And then, Rich, I think you mentioned one of the things that was going to help you kind of going forward were penetration gains. I'm wondering if you can just expand on that little bit however you see fit and give us some color there..

Yes. As I said, we are anticipating in our guidance relatively stable to modest growth margins. There are some ups and downs in that. I'll hit on a few that we have publicly announced. We announced a few months back that we landed some work with the Navy through our Philadelphia Gear business.

We expect releases of that to start hitting in the second half of this year and carry on through next year. That's all incremental in penetration gain. Also, in Philadelphia Gear, it's an area where we have been in the services business.

And the combination of Philly as the anchor as well as was Wazee, Smith, that's coming together well, and we expect record shipments in the second half of this year, acquisition year-over-year aside just through penetration.

We've announced a couple, over the last 12 to 15 months, organic and inorganic moves in rail, which are also we're seeing the benefit of those in the second half as well. And then if you look at the geographic slide that we have for the second quarter shows nice year-over-year growth in Asia. Most of that would be in China.

We have a lot of penetration tactics there, none really big enough to call out necessarily at this point, also coming off relatively low stocking levels, so probably some help there. But our order backlog patterns there are pretty good as well.

So to sum it up, again, different than maybe where we would have been at this time last year, where we still needed a little more help on the order input side, our order backlog patterns would generally support our assumptions, and there are some concrete things behind it..

Okay, great. And then just following on, it seems like some of your bigger customers in construction or mining, maybe not so much mining, but ag are in the process of lowering production rates pretty markedly in the second half of the year. Are you seeing that? Has that factored into your numbers? Just any comment..

I -- to the degree we have it, it's factored in. Certainly, there -- we're -- at this point, ag is looking, normal seasonality, would be down in the second half. It looks like that will be a little bit more so. That is an important market for us. Construction, I would say, not once not a huge market for us, but haven't seen that softening.

Mining for us, where we sit in the supply chain and again, with the impact of inventory year-over-year, we would say, is flattish. But we're certainly not expecting any strong recovery there. But again, because of inventory depletion, we are not seeing continuing decline in that market.

So I think we're -- our market assumptions would be in line with good run through the heavy truck build around the world, and the automotive build would generally be aligned with what you're seeing from our customer base -- our OEM customer base..

Next, we'll move to Eli Lustgarten with Longbow Securities..

I'm glad Steve asked the question. I've been trying to figure out exactly what the numbers were.

Can we talk about the second half outlook by sector? You gave a sort of guidance with volume, but can you talk a little bit about how profitability will look? I mean, Process is going to be up -- you have a -- you actually strengthened the outlook for Process.

How much of that is acquisition? And is the 20% plus operating margin sustainable? Are we expecting margins to improve in Mobile? And your flat forecast for Aerospace for the year, did that include the Philadelphia Gear or some stuff in there? And what about profitability, which was obviously disappointing in the quarter?.

Yes, let me hit each of those for you. I'll start with Aerospace as the smaller segment. Again, flattish volume for the -- year-over-year, which does imply a little bit of improvement for the second half. We do have a slight margin improvement there to get up to the low end of our targeted range. Obviously, we've been struggling to do that this quarter.

Even without the onetime charge, we would've come up a little bit short in that. So we do have some improvement there baked in to get close to the 10% margin level on -- but it doesn't move the needle that significantly in the big picture.

On Mobile, up in the -- typical seasonality in Mobile will be second and third quarter or stronger fourth quarter tends to be the lighter of the 4 quarters. We expect the margins to stay within the targeted range of 10% to 13%, so pretty close to what you just saw in the second quarter.

And then on Process Industries is where most of the second half improvement in revenue comes from. And again, the Philly Gear and services businesses on the comments that I put there on the Defense, Navy business, all that is actually segmented in, in Process Industries.

And we do expect to roughly hold the 20% EBIT margin, so we guide that to 17% to 20%.

And depending on where -- we haven't -- even though we can operate above that 20% and would expect to do so through most of the first half of the year, a lot of our growth initiatives tend to be short-term dilutive to that, whether it be the purchase accounting in M&A or new investments in capacity.

But before we sit right now, the 20% number looks pretty solid for the rest of the half..

Okay. And in your commentary, you talked about some wins in the Mobile business plus the acquisitions you've put out. The wins in the Mobile business that you have, is it -- [indiscernible] get you to $100 million run rate in the year or so.

Can you give me some idea of what you won, what the magnitude of it? And I guess, the big concern, rail is very important this year, but we know the locomotive business and the rail company are talking about buying a lot less next year.

So will those wins sort of, if I look out to '15, sort of offset maybe some softness in the rail business as you look out next year?.

I think we have that factored in. The rail has been some global penetration, so -- and we are -- we certainly participate on the locomotive side but more on the freight car side. There were some good dynamics there in some emerging markets for us, so we do have some penetration gains there.

Some of it is back into automotive and heavy truck, and it's much more now that we feel we're in a -- where we shrunk the business down in those 2 segments, we're in a situation where we should be able to capture at least an equivalent amount of platforms that we're losing because we're an attractive niche demanding the applications.

So we've got some new business coming out in both of those segments, which is something we haven't seen for several years. And then there are some also some areas within the off-highway segment scattered across a variety of markets.

And there's -- 1 or 2 of the larger ones in there, which we highlighted, we're not a position and we don't really want to get into specifics on customers and applications at this point in time. But more so -- again, with our business model, you're more so going to see $5 million, $10 million type platforms are large for us.

And we did secure 1 or 2 large ones in the second quarter, which was why we rolled it all up and released that..

Will we see some benefit -- or what kind of magnitude we'll see a benefit in the second half this year? What kind of benefit in '15 might we get from these wins?.

None this year. All of it would -- of that $100 million would all be next year, and something less than half of it would be in next year, not mostly rear-end loaded as, again, these are engineered applications where we've been awarded the business and are now in the development and ramp-up stage with the customers..

And this $50 million that we're going to get next year is all in Mobile? Or there's a little bit in Process also?.

That comment -- those comments were all specifically around Mobile..

[Operator Instructions] We'll move to David Raso with ISI Group..

The inventory swings in -- the inventory swings in Process have proven to be difficult sometimes to forecast, so I was happy to hear you say you feel you're back in line production with retail and you don't feel there's any more change coming in, in the channel inventory.

Can you just elaborate a little bit on where that confidence is coming from with -- and understanding it was sort of getting away from us a little bit last year to the downside? Can you just make us feel a little more comfortable that is now the case, you're confident there's no more destock?.

Yes. Well, we see it in our order book patterns. So obviously, that's the best barometer that we have. The caution on that, though, is that's also a short-cycle order book, right? So some of that comes in the same day it goes out. Others have a month or 2 lead time, but it's not something that we have 5, 6 months worth of visibility.

But our order rates versus shipping rates have been improving through the first half of the year, so we certainly have that as -- in fact -- and then we also have more so in Europe than the U.S., but we have visibility to large distributors, inventory levels and -- of our product and what they're selling of our profits.

So we see the changes in that inventory. Those statistics would also generally support that. And then the actual pattern that we saw in the second quarter that's reflected in our revenue in Asia would also support that. So several things pointing to it obviously.

It's -- as you said, it's a short cycle, so it's not something that we can say is locked in, but several good indicators..

And the margins look strong for Process in the second half. Can you elaborate a little bit on the -- is it the mix you see in the order book? Is it simply just better overhead absorption because you're obviously targeting some growth in the back half? If you can just elaborate a little bit.

And for a while there, I think the -- thought was process is a 20% margin business. And then obviously, you went through the destocking. You're kind of disappointed, I'd say, for a few quarters.

Can you elaborate a little bit on the 20%? How much is that backlog? Whether you're showing it's obvious, or is it just a better overhead absorption?.

It's a combination of probably everything you said. Our plants are certainly better-loaded today than what they would have been a year ago. Mix is better as well, with my comments around the aftermarket side. We've taken actions to reduce costs. And again, we've been guiding for some time the 17% to 20%.

We have run for extended periods above 20%, but we've also not grown the businesses as significantly as what we would liked to at that level as well. And growing the business at 17% to 18% also generates good ROICs, which is why we've continued to guide that down.

Before the second half, if our expectations on penetration come through, the 20% number, it looks good for the second half..

[Operator Instructions] We'll next move to Steve Barger with Keybanc Capital Markets..

I apologize, I missed the opening comments because of another call, so just direct me to the transcript if this has been covered. But I wanted to ask about the DeltaX slide. The first bullet talks about the plan to accelerate product development and align expansion.

And the question is, is this really a greenfield approach that's going to require a lot of R&D on the front end and you have to figure out where you need to be? Or is this more you already understand the market opportunities and the holes in your product line, and you just have to bring the stuff to market essentially?.

We have a good understanding of opportunities that we have organically greenfield to go after, and the DeltaX initiative is specifically organic, increasing our resources as well as our -- improving our processes to increase the throughput of our product development. So this is not new.

The wind business that we're experiencing today on the ultra-large bore side, we didn't even have that product in our product offering a year ago. The product's significantly larger than anything we would have made several years ago. We've also significantly revamped our spherical roller bearing line, but this is just continuing evolution of that.

And what we've been doing has been working and it's adding value with the customers. It's been profitable, it's increasing our penetration in the aftermarket and this effort is around accelerating that initiative that's been in process for some time..

So even though it's multiyear, it's something where you should start to see a benefit from it in the next quarter or 2, and that will extend through the years versus starting the process and seeing benefit in the back half of next year or something?.

Absolutely..

Okay.

And for the increase in the buyback authorization, given your free cash flow guidance, is buyback something you're going to pursue on a quarterly basis as part of regular capital allocation? Or is the thought process that it'll be more sporadic or opportunistic based on the opportunities you see in any given quarter?.

Yes. The -- we were -- we pulled off in the May, June time frame, again, mostly because we wanted to get a win and allow the 2 independent boards and companies to develop their own strategies. We announced our strategy at the June Investor Day to get to our targeted debt levels by the end of next year, depending on where M&A would shake out.

We need to buy north of 600,000 shares a month on average over an 18-month period to get to the bottom end of that threshold. And we're not going to unveil how we intend to do that. We will provide regular quarterly progress on how we're doing.

And certainly, we recognize that 600,000 a quarter isn't going to get us there, so we need to step that up in a relatively short order..

[Operator Instructions].

Okay. With that, we will -- that sounds like there's no more questions. We will wrap it up. I want to thank everybody for their participation in the call today. Thank you for your interest in The Timken Company and we look forward to updating you again soon. Thank you..

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect anytime, and have a great day..