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Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods - NYSE - US
$ 117.73
-0.464 %
$ 12.5 B
Market Cap
-48.29
P/E
EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT
EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT 2025 - Q3
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Crystal Beiting Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A

Good morning. This is Crystal Beiting, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis for The J. M. Smucker Company. Thank you for listening to our prepared remarks on our Fiscal 2025 Third Quarter Earnings.

After this brief introduction, Mark Smucker, Chair of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer, will give an overview of the quarter’s results and an update on strategic initiatives. Tucker Marshall, Chief Financial Officer, will then provide a detailed analysis of the financial results and our updated fiscal 2025 outlook.

Later this morning, we will hold a separate, live question-and-answer webcast. During today’s discussion, we will make forward-looking statements that reflect our current expectations about future plans and performance. These statements rely on assumptions and estimates, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties.

Additionally, please note we will refer to non-GAAP financial measures management uses to evaluate performance internally. I encourage you to read the full disclosure concerning forward-looking statements and details on our non-GAAP financial measures in this morning’s press release.

Today’s press release, a supplementary slide deck summarizing the quarterly results, management’s prepared remarks, and the Q&A webcast can all be accessed on our Investor Relations website at jmsmucker.com.

We invite all interested parties to join us at 8:30 am Eastern Standard Time today for a live question-and-answer session with management to further discuss our third quarter results and outlook for the full 2025 fiscal year. Please contact me if you have any additional questions after today’s question-and-answer session.

I will now turn the discussion over to Mark Smucker..

Mark Smucker Chief Executive Officer, President & Chairman

Delivering the base portfolio, expanding distribution, driving innovation, continuing our portfolio evolution, and, establishing revenue synergies. We continue to make progress on these pillars. Our modernized packaging is just now beginning to show up on shelf, and we’re launching a bold new marketing campaign that will begin in the coming weeks.

We are focusing on distribution that includes both closing gaps in core items in existing channels and entering new channels. Our latest innovation is beginning to enter the market, and our pipeline is strong. Calendar year 2024 was the fourth straight year of innovation share leadership for the Hostess brand and we expect continuing this trend.

We recently launched new Donettes Fritter Rings, which is supported by consumers shifting toward breakfast occasions. We are also taking our iconic cupcakes, which are the number 1 brand in the cupcake sub-category, and creating a mini version with Hostess Cupcake Minis, which will begin shipping in our fourth quarter.

Consumers want mini form offerings, and this innovation offers smaller portions for consumers still looking for a sweet treat. And, Hostess Suzy Q’s will return to the market this September. Suzy Q’s are one of the most requested products from our consumers, and we are excited for its return.

The recently announced agreement to divest certain value brands and associated manufacturing facility demonstrates our commitment to evolving our portfolio and ensures our manufacturing network is optimized to mitigate costs and reduce complexity.

We are also beginning to establish revenue synergies, a key strategic benefit of the acquisition, by expanding Uncrustables sandwiches into C-store. We are using our new capabilities in the channel and also executing cross-promotional events between the Hostess brand and legacy Smucker brands.

We have executed multiple revenue-driving promotions across our portfolio, and results continue to be positive. Through the execution of our focused strategy and prioritization of these key growth platforms, we have delivered a strong fiscal year to date. Now turning to the dynamics in each of our segments.

In Coffee, net sales increased 2% versus the prior year. Our portfolio is performing well as we navigate record-high green coffee costs and continue to demonstrate the ability to recover increased commodity costs through responsible pricing.

Due to higher green coffee costs and the pass-through nature of the coffee category, we took our first price increase in June across parts of our portfolio. In October, we successfully took a second price increase across our portfolio, which is now being reflected in our results.

Price elasticity of demand trends continue to be in line or slightly favorable to our expectations.

Overall, at-home coffee remains a strong and resilient category that provides value to consumers in all economic environments, and our portfolio provides an affordable price per serving as an alternative to other beverage experiences such as the coffee shop, among others.

Our belief is that the commodity will normalize over time as it has historically. As always, we will manage our coffee business through a strategy that demonstrates a balance between recovering inflationary input costs, while providing consumers with attractive options ranging from value to premium.

In Frozen Handheld and Spreads, net sales grew 2%, primarily driven by double-digit growth for Uncrustables sandwiches, partially offset by decreases for Smucker’s fruit spreads and Jif peanut butter.

In support of our category-leading spreads business, we just launched a national marketing campaign that focuses on the original peanut butter and jelly sandwich that consumers know and love. Peanut butter and jelly remains a simple and comforting food that is easy, affordable, and provides delicious, balanced nutrition for our consumers.

The Jif “Save the Celery” campaign is also back this year and has been extended through the high snacking period of the March college basketball tournaments, and we continue to see opportunities to expand beyond sandwiches and into new usage occasions.

In Pet Foods, we experienced certain supply chain disruptions that negatively impacted our results in both Milk-Bone dog snacks and Meow Mix wet cat food. Reported net sales decreased 9% versus the prior year, primarily due to a reduction in contract manufacturing sales related to the divested pet food brands.

When excluding these contract manufacturing sales, and had the supply chain disruptions not occurred, net sales would have increased low-single-digits in the quarter. We anticipate returning to full distribution in the fourth quarter for both brands.

Overall, the dog snacks category continues to be impacted by a slowdown in discretionary spending largely driven by inflationary pressures. We remain confident in our portfolio as we continue to focus on driving growth for the Milk-Bone brand, with its strong leadership position in the category.

In cat food, we continue to see tailwinds as the cat population is projected to grow and anticipate further share growth for the Meow Mix brand. Dog snacks and cat food remain attractive categories, and e-commerce trends continue to be positive for our portfolio.

In Sweet Baked Snacks, comparable net sales decreased 8%, primarily driven by decreases for snack cakes and private label products, partially offset by an increase for donuts. Hostess Donettes have continued to outperform the broader portfolio, and we have seen both increased dollar sales and volume growth over the last 52-week period.

Consumers view breakfast products as less discretionary than the broader sweet baked goods category, and we will continue to drive innovation in breakfast occasions. Finally, in International and Away From Home, comparable net sales grew 5%.

Growth was driven by the Away From Home business, as it continues to deliver strong results by leveraging our leading national brands and key growth platforms in Away From Home channels.

Though our momentum continued into the third quarter for our legacy business, we are revising and narrowing our full-year net sales expectations primarily due to the impact of approximately $30 million of supply chain disruptions in our third quarter; Continued softness in the Sweet Baked Snacks segment; And, an anticipated unfavorable impact from foreign currency exchange.

We now expect reported net sales of approximately 7.25%, reflecting a full year of net sales from the Hostess Brands acquisition and base business growth. On the bottom-line, third quarter adjusted earnings per share exceeded our expectations, driven by adjusted gross margin improvement and disciplined cost management.

Based on the strong earnings year to date, we are raising the mid-point of our adjusted earnings per share guidance range to $10.00. This increase reflects our expectations for improved gross margin expansion and the realization of synergies earlier than anticipated.

We also increased our free cash flow guidance to $925 million for the full year, reflecting a $50 million increase versus previous expectations. In closing, I would like to highlight a few key points. Our legacy business, which accounts for approximately 85% of our total Company net sales, is delivering strong growth.

We have confidence in the Hostess brand, and our strategic rationale for the acquisition remains strong. While the near-term performance has not met our expectations, we have outlined a comprehensive strategy to return the brand to growth and have made initial progress on key actions in support of it.

And, our strategy is working, and we remain confident in our ability to deliver long-term sustainable growth and generate over $1 billion in free cash flow annually. As we look ahead, we are well-positioned to adapt to consumer preferences, execute with excellence, and sustain the momentum for our business.

All of which are powered by our unique culture and dedicated employees, whom I would like to thank for their outstanding contributions. I’ll now turn it over to Tucker to go over our quarterly financial results and our fiscal year 2025 outlook in more detail..

Tucker Marshall Chief Financial Officer

Third quarter results, reduced expectations for our Sweet Baked Snacks business in the fourth quarter of approximately $20 million versus our previous expectations. We now anticipate full-year net sales for the Sweet Baked Snacks segment to be approximately $1.2 billion, and, a higher unfavorable impact from foreign currency exchange.

The full-year net sales guidance does not reflect any impact related to the Company's previously announced agreement to divest the Sweet Baked Snacks value brands, which is expected to impact the current fiscal year by approximately $10 million.

We now anticipate full-year adjusted gross profit margin to be approximately 38%, primarily driven by better than expected margin in our U.S. Retail Coffee segment than previously expected.

SD&A expenses are now anticipated to increase by approximately 8% versus the prior year, primarily reflecting a full-year of operating expenses from the Hostess acquisition. Total marketing expense is estimated to be slightly below 5.5% of net sales.

We anticipate net interest expense of approximately $390 million and an adjusted effective income tax rate of 24.1%, along with a full-year weighted-average share count of 106.7 million.

Taking all these factors into consideration, full-year adjusted earnings per share is anticipated to be in the range of $9.85 to $10.15, which reflects a $0.10 increase at the mid-point of the range relative to our previous guidance.

The full-year adjusted earnings per share guidance does not reflect any impact related to the Company's previously announced agreement to divest the Sweet Baked Snacks value brands, which is expected to be immaterial to fiscal 2025 earnings per share.

We project free cash flow of approximately $925 million, with capital expenditures of $400 million for the year.

Other key assumptions affecting cash flow include, depreciation expense of approximately $300 million, amortization expense of approximately $220 million, share-based compensation expense of $35 million, and other non-cash charges of $150 million.

In closing, we are pleased with our third quarter results, which demonstrate the strength of our brands and the continued momentum of the business. We are taking the right actions to support execution and disciplined cost management.

I am confident in our strategy and believe we are in a strong position to deliver long-term growth and increase shareholder value. And, I would like to express my appreciation for our employees. They have demonstrated their commitment to executing with excellence, and their passion for our Company positions us for continued success. Thank you..

Q - :.

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