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Consumer Defensive - Beverages - Non-Alcoholic - NYSE - MX
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EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT
EARNINGS CALL TRANSCRIPT 2024 - Q3
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Operator

Hello, and welcome to Coca-Cola FEMSA Third Quarter 2024 Conference Call. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this conference is being recorded, and for the duration of the call, your lines will be on listen-only.

[Operator Instructions] I'll now turn the call over to Jorge Collazo, Investor Relations Director. Please go ahead..

Jorge Collazo Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, Melissa. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this webcast and conference call to review our third quarter 2024 results. Joining me this morning are Ian Craig, our Chief Executive Officer, and Gerardo Cruz, our Chief Financial Officer. As usual, after prepared remarks, we will open the call for a question-and-answer session.

Before we proceed, please allow me to remind all participants that this conference call may include forward-looking statements and should be considered as good faith estimates made by the company. These forward-looking statements reflect management's expectations and are based upon currently available data.

Actual results are subject to future events and uncertainties that can materially impact the company's performance. For more details on this, please refer to the disclaimer in the earnings release that went out earlier this morning. With that, let me turn the call over to our Chief Executive Officer to begin our presentation. Ian, please go ahead..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

build on the growth momentum of our core business, take Juntos+ version 4.0 to the next level with the deployment of advanced AI capabilities, and three, continue fostering a customer-centric and psychologically-safe culture for Coca-Cola FEMSA.

As we enter the final stretch of the year, we remain committed to our strategy and the implementation of our sustainable long-term growth model. With that, I will hand the call over to Gerry..

Gerardo Cruz Chief Financial Officer and Director of Administration & Finance

Thank you, Ian. Good morning, everyone. Summarizing our division's results for the third quarter. In Mexico and Central America, volumes declined 0.7% to reach 629 million unit cases. Volume growth in Guatemala and our Central America territories was offset by volume declines in Mexico.

Revenues increased 9.6% to MXN42.5 billion, driven mainly by our revenue management initiatives and favorable currency translational into Mexican pesos. Gross profit increased 10.7% to reach MXN20.7 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 48.6%, expanding 70 basis points year-on-year.

Our top-line growth, favorable hedging initiatives and improving sweetener and packaging costs were partially offset by higher fixed costs. Operating income increased 11.3% to MXN6.7 billion, driven mainly by gross profit growth. Our operating margin expanded 30 basis points to 15.8%.

As Ian mentioned, during the quarter, we recognized insurance claim payments in Mexico of approximately MXN340 million related to the impact from Hurricane Otis during the previous year. These effects offset an operating foreign exchange loss and higher expenses such as labor, marketing and freight.

Finally, our adjusted EBITDA in Mexico and Central America grew 15%, leading to a 110-basis-point margin expansion to 22.1%. Moving on to the South America division. Volumes increased 3.1% to 412.1 million unit cases.

This increase was driven by the 6.3% growth achieved in Brazil and stable performance in Argentina, which offset volume contractions in Colombia and Uruguay. Our revenues in South America increased 13.6% to MXN27.1 billion, driven mainly by volume growth and favorable mix.

These effects were partially offset by unfavorable currency translation effects into Mexican pesos, driven by the depreciation of the Argentine peso and the Brazilian real. On a currency neutral basis, total revenues in South America increased 19.5%.

Gross profit in South America increased 12.2%, leading to a margin contraction of 60 basis points to 42.1%. This margin contraction was driven mainly by higher sweetener costs, purchases of finished product and currency depreciation from most of our operating currencies as compared to the US dollar.

These effects were partially offset by declining packaging costs and favorable hedging initiatives. Operating income for the division increased 20.6% to MXN2.9 billion, and operating margin expanded 60 basis points to 10.8%. This margin expansion was driven mainly by operating leverage coupled with cost and expense controls across our operations.

These effects were partially offset by margin pressures in Argentina, coupled with higher fixed costs and expenses, such as freight and labor. On a currency neutral basis, operating income increased 25.7%. Finally, adjusted EBITDA in South America increased 25.8% to MXN4.6 billion, and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 170 basis points to 17%.

Moving on to our comprehensive financial results, which recorded an expense of MXN823 million as compared to an expense of MXN552 million during the same period of the previous year.

In the third quarter, we registered an increase in our comprehensive financial results driven mainly by a lower foreign exchange gain as compared to the previous year, coupled with an increase in our interest expense net, partially offset by a higher gain in inflationary subsidiaries as compared to the same period of 2023.

Finally, before opening the call to your questions, I want to take a moment to recognize our team's efforts across all of Coca-Cola FEMSA to achieve the sustainability performance target related to our sustainability linked bonds in Mexico.

As we announced last September, because of our investments in water efficiency programs, we achieved the water use efficiency ratio of 1.36 liters per liter of beverage produced, a benchmark for the Coca-Cola system. This is a 21% improvement in water efficiency as compared to 2016. Thank you all for joining us in today's call.

Operator, we are ready to open the call for questions..

Operator

Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Felipe Ucros with Scotiabank. Please go ahead..

Felipe Ucros

Thanks, operator. Good morning, Ian, Gerry, and team. Thanks for the space. So, first, a question on Brazil. [Coke] (ph) has been posting very solid results there, but in recent conversations, you have mentioned that, even with the help of enabling bottlers, you're still not being able to fully meet demand from what I understand.

And, of course, it's costly getting products from third-parties in further regions. In my mind, that kind of means that you have easy comps in Southern Brazil next year as your plant ramps up, you kind of meet the demand fully and your unit cost starts going down.

Am I thinking of this correctly? And then, my second question is about pilots and multi-category. Just wondering if you can give us an update on how the pilots are going and your expectations for the next few quarters. Thank you..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Hello, Felipe. How are you? Yes, I think you would be correct. The impact on Brazil, this plant was about 10% of our capacity there. So, in this low season, we have been able to be sourcing probably around 10 million unit cases from other bottlers.

So, it's a lot of volume that we have been sourcing from other bottlers and we have been shipping from other regions in Coca-Cola FEMSA and this has helped in the volumes, but these cases are not really profitable cases at all. They're intended just to maintain our competitive position.

So, you're right that in -- as our capacity comes back online, then there will be more favorable comps just because those cases will have much less freight and cost attached to them. Also in line with that, obviously, in the fourth quarter, where in Brazil, it's high season.

It's going to be a lot more difficult to be sourcing those cases from other bottlers in the southern territories, because everyone is usually up to capacity. So, that's going to have an impact there. In terms of pilots and multi-category, I think we're moving along well. We're around 1 point -- for the total mix, it's around 1.6%, I guess, 1.6%.

We have markets such as Brazil at 2%. We have smaller markets such as Uruguay and Panama around 10%, Costa Rica almost reaching 3%. So, I think we're comfortable with our guidance that our ambition is to reach 5% of revenues, excluding beer. It's going to be a long journey though.

As you know, these are not -- it's not easy for our partners to unwind or include as a part of their distribution structure, but everything is progressing according to our ambition.

Okay?.

Felipe Ucros

Very clear. Thanks a lot for the color, and congrats on the results, again..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Thank you, Felipe..

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Alejandro Fuchs with Itau. Please go ahead..

Alejandro Fuchs

Thank you. Hello, Ian, Gerardo and team. Thank you for the special questions. Congratulations on the results. I have very two quick ones, if I may. First for Gerardo. On gross margin in South America, I wanted to see if you could give us a little more color in how to think about it going forward.

I was a little bit surprised to see gross margin contraction year-over-year in South America while Mexico expanded materially. So, maybe if you can give us some color there, it will be helpful. And then the second, very quickly, on Juntos+ Advisor.

I understand maybe it's a little bit soon to tell right now, but wanted to see if you have any initial findings that you think are worth sharing maybe in terms of frequency or average ticket that would help us. Thank you..

Gerardo Cruz Chief Financial Officer and Director of Administration & Finance

Thank you, Alejandro. First on the gross margin question in South America, we saw pressure mainly coming from increasing sweeteners versus the previous year in gross margin. We also had some promotional activity in Colombia.

As Ian mentioned in the prepared remarks, Colombia has been facing a tougher consumer environment, driven by disposable income contraction. So, we have done a lot of work in terms of promotional activity to position ourselves better. I think those are the main explanations that we have affecting gross margin.

Also, the effect of Argentina and the depreciation of the Argentine peso versus the dollar has put some pressure in gross margin. We think that the three effects that we're seeing in South America this quarter are short-term effects and we expect more benign raw material environment and stable currency in Argentina as we move forward.

So, we would expect that gross margin would improve as we move forward..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Also Alex, just moving on to the second point. I mean, Juntos+ Advisor, just think of it this way. We got advanced very rapidly on the app and the WhatsApp bot and advanced very rapidly on our AI analytics. And what happened is both our bot and our app with our AI analytics, we could do customized promotions by client.

And our sales force tool, we were still on our legacy technology. So, all of the activities and initiatives that we were filtering down via our sales persons had to be done by segments, not by client. So, we were not utilizing the full potential of our AI tools.

So, what we're being able to do now with Juntos+ Advisor is we leverage our analytics to the fullest. So, all of the promotions and the guided missions go all the way down to the client level and all of these are done by AI analytics. And the feedback from our sales force has been just phenomenal. They're very excited. They're accelerating the rollout.

We're finding out very good things on the ground. For example, we were curious visiting our clients on why even though it was one of our key initiatives, we were not promoting, I think it was a [Coke 2 liter] (ph) promotion. And our team went there and visited that client and it had enough stocks of Coke 2 liter.

So, the way these models work and they take into account the particular situation of each client with its history and their surrounding area is nothing short of amazing. They are also helping them.

The sales team has goals on combined coverages, many other initiatives, and they have total visibility on a client per client level without having to carry around three or four sheets of paper to see how things are going. So, we're very excited.

We just think about it as putting our sales force on the same footing in terms of AI and the tools that they need as the clients have ordered digitally.

Does that help, Alejandro?.

Alejandro Fuchs

Yes, it was very clear. Thank you, Ian, and thank you, Gerardo, as well..

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question is from Lucas Ferreira with JPMorgan. Please go ahead..

Lucas Ferreira

Hi, guys. I hope you can hear me. My first question is on Brazil, the Porto Alegre plant's closure. Last quarter, you gave the guidance of MXN130 million impact on the results.

Wondering if you have some visibility of how much it was this quarter, and if you have any sort of expectations for the full year, assuming you restart the plant fully, right, like mentioned in the first, well, restarting now, but will be fully operating that plant next year? And how much you expect insurance to cover these losses? I believe it won't be fully covering, but I wanted to have an expectation of how much that could cover.

And second question, I want to get -- if you want to -- if you can dive a bit deeper into Colombia, what's the outlook there after this quarter, which was more turbulent? If you expect a rebound soon in terms of readjusting go to market and pricing eventually and get Colombia sort of back on track? Can you put it this way? So, how to think about the numbers for Colombia in the next few quarters? Thank you..

Gerardo Cruz Chief Financial Officer and Director of Administration & Finance

Thank you, Lucas. I'll start with the first one regarding [indiscernible] plant in Brazil. The impact that we recorded this quarter was for MXN200 million, mainly for incremental freight expenses, maintenance, all the cleaning process and labor expenses.

We expect that the toughest impact we will face on additional expenses will be on the fourth quarter, mainly because of the higher volume that we have in high season that quarter. The insurance claim process, as you know, is a long one.

We just talked about just having recorded the insurance claim payments this quarter from the Otis hurricane in Mexico that happened last year. Gladly, the process has been working quite well.

The coverages that we have and the relationship that we have with the insurance company works very, very well, a very positive dialogue, and we expect that we should be covering most of these expenses as we move forward..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

In the case of Colombia, Lucas, I think the third quarter was our most challenging one. You've seen a year-over-year growth in Colombia and you know, start a very strong, almost 10% and 1% the second quarter, then minus 4%. And I think, given that comps in the fourth quarter where we have the effects of the tax comparable from November and December.

And, just looking at the two-year trend in Colombia, it's a lot more stable. So, we will definitely expect a sequential improvement from the third quarter in the fourth quarter in Colombia and in terms of profitability as well. So, it will be, let's say, a stabilization.

So, it will be -- we do expect, sorry, it's an expectation, we do expect a sequential improvement from the third quarter, which I think was the low point for Colombia for us. And we're no longer going to be cycling negative comps from the tax point of view..

Lucas Ferreira

Perfect. Thank you very much..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Thank you..

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Ben Theurer with Barclays. Please go ahead..

Ben Theurer

Yeah. Good morning, Ian, Gerry. Thanks for taking my question.

Wanted to follow-up a little bit on the digital platform and how it helps you maybe on pricing of products versus promotioning, et cetera, because it feels like you had a very successful pricing kind of success in the quarter, right? Volumes in Mexico down, but revenue is actually nicely up.

So, just help us understand how the tools help you on your pricing architecture and your price policies within your different regions to deliver pricing that, at least on paper, looks like it was once again, above like general inflation level. So, really just around how you use tools? That will be my first question, as it relates to pricing.

And I have a quick follow-up..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Hi. Sure. Hi, Ben. So, just taking a step back, the general way that we think of pricing is we want to make sure we grow our relative competitive position in the market in terms of share revenues.

And the pricing that we can get is really a solver to that as long as we continue improving even marginally, but we want to keep improving our relative competitive position, and really price is a function of what we can do within that context.

And also taking into account particularities in areas that have been impacted by weather and so something like that, we want to make sure we maintain our affordability. That's like the general overall strategy framework then. And, really what we have is the analytics team has developed very advanced RGM tools and price optimizer tools.

You know that let us do like I mentioned, before we would have to review these monthly or quarterly segmented and now it's done by customer just with a lot more higher uplift in all of these strategies, much more targeted.

So, I credit this not with the front-end digital tools, but really the back-end AI advanced AutoML model that we have developed both on the pricing optimizer and the RGM tools..

Ben Theurer

Okay. Perfect.

And then, as you think about rolling out the technology and we've talked a lot in the past about version 4.0 and, like, the different iterations as it goes beyond the current status, what is like your thinking as well of rolling out these initiatives in some of the other markets, particularly Central America, as it relates to just the digital platforms to really drive growth there as well?.

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Well, I mean, we're going faster than we had planned at the end -- at the start of the year. So, the only two countries that we will have left is Argentina and Uruguay, which will be rolled out in the first quarter. So, version 4.0 will be available in all of KOF. I mean, the results are very good in Central America as well.

The feedback is very positive. It's stable. It's growing quickly. So, we have nothing to add on that. It's faster than schedule and will be done by the first quarter. And I come back to then what I mentioned to Alejandro from Itau, which is the Advisor. That's something that's going to give us a big boost.

Juntos+ Advisor, just think of it, we still have a large proportion of our sales that go through our pre-seller.

And even as sales from our pre-seller mix go down in mix towards our digital channels, we're still going to keep our feet on the street, and this tool allows it to drive all of these guided missions that include execution missions, new product introduction mission.

So, it's just going to be a big boost to the other 70% of our sales that went to other channels. So, I think that's going to be a big uplift that we didn't have visibility on and it's surprising us to the upside in what we're rolling out in Brazil..

Ben Theurer

Perfect. Congrats. Thank you very much..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Thank you, Ben..

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Fernando Olvera with Bank of America. Please go ahead..

Fernando Olvera

Hi, good morning, everyone, and thanks for taking my questions. And the first one is related to Mexico. If you can comment more about the volume decline that you registered during the quarter and mainly in [indiscernible] water? And it would be great to hear your thoughts about consumption environment going forward.

And my second question is related to Argentina. If you can expand on the recovery that you are seeing, because it seems that it's going faster than expected? And what is your outlook for coming quarters? Thank you..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Hi, [Felipe] (ph). How are you? I think in Mexico, you have to think of it in two main drivers that it's very hard for us to quantify what comes from which of these two variables. But the first one is, I think our region in Mexico had a huge increase in rainfall and precipitation. So, it was 50% higher than the same quarter of last year.

Total precipitation as of September of 2024 was already 6% higher than precipitation for the full year of 2023. So, I think we're very grateful that we received all of this rain because it solved all of the water reservoir levels which were low and now they're all above 60%-plus. So, we have very good water levels in the reservoirs in our region.

But the downside of this is that it did have an impact on consumption. As you know, our consumption relates to precipitation very directly and we had a lot of rainfall and it also complicated our Acapulco plant as well and our logistics in general.

So that was one cause there, and that's probably going to be maybe a recurrent weather pattern with this new climate reality, these more extreme heat and rainfalls. And then, on the other part, you have a decrease in economic activity.

So, I think there were quite a bit of payments and help that might have been advanced before elections and we enjoyed the benefits of that in consumption.

But when you look at gross disposable income, the monthly economic activity indicator, IGAE, for August and September and you see sequential decline versus what we had in -- since -- at the June levels. So, it is true that Mexico has been slower and we see this across categories.

I think beverages is probably more impacted in our part of the country because of these hurricanes and tropical rains. So, those are the two effects that we see.

Like, we mentioned in the call, I think we're very positive in Mexico in general in the medium term, Fernando, because we're going to be having many infrastructure projects in our corner of Mexico. Now, it's going to be the Querétaro-Mexico City train line. The other projects continue on track with expansions as well.

Then, we have announced -- the government has announced new also social programs. And all of these translate directly to increasing disposable income and consumption of our category. So, I think our view on Mexico is positive on wages and positive on consumption for us. So, that should be good in the medium term.

And then, we have Argentina, which I think we played -- we developed a good playbook there with the local team. We went in there knowing that it was going to be a very acute crisis and we had to maintain or we wanted to maintain in household penetration on customer base.

And we took affordability very seriously, expanded it, reduced our gap, competitive gap versus the other competitors that were out there. And I think that playbook played out very nicely where we have flat volumes for this quarter and hopefully, we can have positive volumes for the fourth quarter.

It's going to be a very slow and gradual recovery because the crisis has been sharp, but I think, the government is taking many right actions, and gradually we are recovering. And the playbook that was laid out is working very, very well.

So, I think we're positive on Argentina, but we want to be cautious that it's not -- I don't think it's going to be a V-shaped recovery, but a gradual recovery there. And that's what we're seeing so far so good..

Fernando Olvera

Great. Thank you so much..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Thank you, Fernando..

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Lucas Mussi with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead..

Lucas Mussi

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I have one on Mexico, particularly on margins. We finally started to see sugar prices behaving a little bit better on the margin and translating into a better gross margin environment for Mexico. So, wanted to hear our latest thoughts thinking about next year.

How comfortable are you that sugar in Mexico could continue to be a tailwind for your margins, for your costs? We know that the Mexican prices are not necessarily correlated to international quotes, but there was a relevant recent uptick on international sugar prices. We also have a weaker Mexican peso.

So, just wanted to hear your latest thoughts on how sustainable you think this tailwind can be for the Mexican division coming into 2025? And that's my first question. My second question is also in Argentina.

But if you could elaborate a little bit better as it pertains to your strategy, I think that it is safe to say that today you have a strategy that is looking more tilted towards volume performance, maintaining volumes.

And I think that the flattish performance is actually quite impressive, especially compared to other players that have operations in the region.

But I wanted to know, what about your margin perspective? Are you guys being able to perhaps offset a more conservative pricing environment with more efficiencies? So, I just wanted to hear your thoughts on margins in Argentina. That's it. Thanks for the time, guys..

Gerardo Cruz Chief Financial Officer and Director of Administration & Finance

Hi, Lucas, and thank you for your question. I'll start with Mexico. Gross margin, we saw margins expanding this quarter mainly on the back of things that you mentioned, better outlook or better situation in the sweeteners cost as well as packaging, and also revenue management initiatives that allowed us to perform better in gross margin this quarter.

As we move forward and looking at the general raw material environment, we do expect stability. We do expect sugar to continue to be a tailwind locally in the Mexican market, but in general, we don't expect to see pressure. So that should continue to be something that will help the performance as we move on.

In terms of Argentina, general strategy has been as you mentioned to favor volumes to gain relative scale. We have learned in many years that during tougher situations, we usually come out stronger at the other end.

So, this is what we're favoring, trying to position ourselves better in terms of affordability, understanding that consumers are at a complicated situation and that has proven to be a good position for us..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

I think if you think of it in terms of margins, we did have a contraction this year, both the overall EBIT as well as in terms of margins. So, this double-digit contraction in EBIT and I think we contracted 200-plus basis points on margin. I think on next year, for example, we should see the reverse of that.

I mean, high double-digit growth in EBIT, maybe 100-plus points on margin. So -- but it's a gradual recovery that's going to take its time, Lucas..

Lucas Mussi

That is very clear. Thanks..

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Antonio Hernandez with [Actinvest] (ph). Please go ahead..

Antonio Hernandez

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking our question. Congrats on the results.

Just wanted to understand regarding -- you expanded both operating margin, gross margin and EBITDA margin, but [indiscernible] at the difference between the EBIT margin expansion and the EBITDA margin expansion and [indiscernible] operating non-cash charges grew, well, higher than sales and higher than other metrics year-over-year.

Could you elaborate a little bit more on that and the drivers of that growth of the [indiscernible] operating non-cash charges? Thanks..

Gerardo Cruz Chief Financial Officer and Director of Administration & Finance

Thank you, Antonio. We would have had a better performance in EBIT margins similar to what we saw in EBITDA margins, but we had two virtual effects -- two main virtual effects that affected EBIT margins more.

The first one is the one that we've been talking about for the past few months, which is a depreciation of the Mexican peso and the non-cash effect that has on dollar denominated accounts payable.

The second effect was a reclassification of guaranteed deposits that should have been in the balance sheet as accounts receivable and had been registered in the P&L. So, we corrected that effect, but in terms of the full year, this effect is neutralized in full year numbers. This was for an amount of about MXN220 million..

Antonio Hernandez

Okay. Thanks for that color. And just a quick follow-up on, what you mentioned weather headwinds and other different challenges in terms of volumes in Mexico. If there was anything of that volume performance driven by stockouts? Thanks..

Jorge Collazo Head of Investor Relations

Hello, Antonio. It's Jorge here. Yes, actually we did have also an effect of stockouts in Mexico, mainly at the beginning. So, it's something that as you know, we have been seeing in Mexico and that's one thing that we think we're going to take advantage of next year. Because as Ian mentioned, we have been expanding capacity in Mexico.

Now, if you look at his prepared remarks, he expanded a lot not only on the bottling facilities that we are expanding on the capacity, but also in warehouse capacity, in route to market, in trucks and also in the primary distribution, secondary distribution. So, we don't see that as a big of an impact going forward.

But still in the third quarter at the beginning, we did see a little bit of an impact there from stockouts.

And I think it also explains and I will connect a little bit of the question from [indiscernible], because if you look at category performance in Mexico, actually brand Coca-Cola outperformed, but because of stockouts we did have an impact on flavor sparkling. So, it explains that the stockouts..

Antonio Hernandez

Perfect. Thanks a lot, Jorge. Have a nice day..

Jorge Collazo Head of Investor Relations

Thank you..

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from [indiscernible] with Citi. Please go ahead..

Unidentified Analyst

Yes. Hello, Ian, Gerardo, and Jorge. So first, congrats on the results, and thank you for taking my questions. I'd like to explore two topics here. The first one is focusing a bit more on Brazil. So just wondering here what you're seeing for the region, specifically in terms of profitability for next year.

We understand here that there could be positive impacts, first from operating leverage, right, as the Porto Alegre plant gets back gets back online. And hopefully, we have some product mix from the Coca-Cola Zero, right? And my second question would be so continuing here with the Coca-Cola Zero, understand it has a lot of potential.

We've seen very good acceptance of the product here in Brazil.

So, just wondering maybe, not specifically for Brazil, right, but for all the regions, what's the potential you're seeing here for this product, in terms of, like, market penetration and specifically also profitability? So, whatever information you can share with us will be -- will appreciate it here. Thank you..

Gerardo Cruz Chief Financial Officer and Director of Administration & Finance

I'll start with the first one, Thiago, good morning, regarding profitability in Brazil. As I mentioned, I think in one of the previous questions, fourth quarter in Brazil, we do expect to see higher pressure from the Porto Alegre deficit in capacity. As you know, we will be recovering that capacity mainly during the first quarter of next year.

So, we do expect the high season in Brazil to have a higher impact in freight and whatever we're being able to buy from other franchises both from Coca-Cola FEMSA and other bottlers. Obviously, we sell at zero profit to maintain a position in the region. So that will present a challenge in terms of profitability.

We do expect demand to continue to perform, but in terms of supply, we will be limited, so that will pose some pressure.

As we move forward to next year and I think we talked a little bit about this as well, next year with the plant coming back online and all of the things that we're doing there as a result of the disaster that we had, we do expect that that will be a tailwind for 2025..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Also I think in terms of Coke, no sugar, Brazil has been an inspiration for all of the markets. It's doing very, very well, growing very high double digits.

And the good thing that I can say is probably Mexico was the one market where we had been having a tougher time with Coke Zero, a very small proportion of the mix almost 3% compared to 20% in Brazil in cola. So, but what we have been seeing now in Mexico is it's finally starting to accelerate.

So, in this third quarter, we had high-single-digits growth in Mexico. We're trying to emulate the Brazilian playbook, which is a 360-degree playbook with entry price points, the right packages, influencers, a 360-degree plan, properties such as music, festivals, soccer, and also in and out for the brand like Oreo and other flavor varieties.

The one bright spot that I would say outside is, it's starting to accelerate in Mexico. It's too early to say that this is sustainable, but if we can keep this up and emulate what we have done in Brazil in this other very large market [Technical Difficulty] get very, very positive results..

Unidentified Analyst

Fantastic. Thank you very much..

Operator

Thank you very much. [Operator Instructions] Our next question is from Ulises Argote with Santander. Please go ahead..

Ulises Argote

[Technical Difficulty].

Operator

Apologies, Mr. Argote, your line is a little bit -- we cannot hear you. Apologies to our host. We cannot hear Mr. Argote's line.

Perhaps, he could submit his question offline?.

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Yeah.

Maybe, Ulises -- hello? Ulises?.

Operator

Mr.

Argote, if you'd like to try one more time?.

Ulises Argote

Hi.

Is this better now?.

Operator

Oh, yes, it is. Thank you. Please go ahead..

Ulises Argote

Oh, thank you very much. Apologies there. So, the question was more around market share dynamics in Mexico. I was wondering if you could provide any color on how this has been evolving more recent, particularly given that the volumes that we saw in Mexico are kind of declining for the third quarter.

And in the sense maybe how you're kind of tying this on your pricing versus volume strategy heading into next year Thank you, guys..

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Yes. Hello, Ulises. I'm glad you managed to sort that out there with the audio. Yeah, regarding market share in Mexico, I think what we have seen is a little bit of a mixed performance, because what we have been focusing on with the strategy as you know we have been discussing is reversing the trend that we had in brand Coca-Cola.

So, with the current environment where we are in, we have been protecting share in brand Coca-Cola, but in hindsight and connecting that with stockouts as well as we mentioned in a previous question, we have had some share erosion in flavors. And as a result, there is a little bit of loss of share in the Sparkling.

Colas being slightly just slightly down. I would say this has not been a sustainable growth strategy, but this year has -- Mexico has not been a bright spot in share. And I attribute most of that to our underperformance in supplying our customers..

Ulises Argote

Perfect. That's very clear.

And any comments into how you're thinking on pricing volumes maybe on this backdrop into next year?.

Ian Craig Chief Executive Officer & MD

Like, I think I mentioned beforehand that we want to make sure we recover [Technical Difficulty]..

Jorge Collazo Head of Investor Relations

Well, thank you, everyone for your interest in today's call, for joining us today. And as always, myself, the rest of the Investor Relations team, we are available for any remaining of your questions. And we look forward to seeing you very soon. Thank you..

Operator

Thank you very much. That concludes today's conference. We appreciate your participation. Have a wonderful weekend..

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