ZVIA - NYSE

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the

Thank you, and welcome to

Thanks, Reed, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to the Q1 2023 earnings call for

Thank you, Amy, and good morning, everyone. I will begin with an overview of our first quarter financial results. We will then open the call for your questions. In the first quarter of 2023, we delivered net sales of $43.3 million, growing 13.8% versus same time prior year. Growth was driven by higher price realization as volume was down 2.7% on an equivalized basis to $3.3 million in the period. Our gross margin continued sequential improvement with our strongest margin yet as a public company at 46.4% for the first quarter of 2023, 4.7 points above same quarter a year ago, primarily due to the impact of pricing, offset by slightly higher manufacturing costs. Gross margin also improved sequentially by 2.1 points versus Q4 2022. Gross profit delivered in the period was $20.1 million, up $4.2 million to 26.6% versus a year ago, reflecting growth in net sales, driven by pricing and lower promotional spend. Selling and marketing expenses decreased 15.2% to $11.9 million, reflecting lower freight and warehousing costs of $1.3 million, driven primarily by improved freight pricing and efficiencies and a reduction of nonworking marketing costs of $0.9 million. G&A expenses were $8.6 million or 20% of net sales in the first quarter of 2023 compared to $10.1 million or 26.6% of net sales in the first quarter of 2022, a decrease of 6.6 points as a percent of net sales. The year-on-year dollar decrease was attributed to lower employee costs and lower public company expenses. Stock-based compensation and noncash expense was $2.4 million in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to $8.9 million in the same quarter last year. Net loss was $2.9 million compared to a net loss of $17.5 million in the first quarter of 2022, an improvement of $14.6 million or 83.3% as compared to the first quarter of last year. Loss per share was $0.04 per diluted share of

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Bonnie Herzog with Goldman Sachs.

I just had a few questions on the brand refresh. I just wanted to clarify something. Did you ship any of it during Q1? Is it all expected to be starting to ship now in Q2? And that's why you have some visibility so far?

Sure. So it is shipping now, Bonnie. We have some products in store right now and specifically our innovation. So creamy root beer, the six pack is in market for the first time, had been sold in 12 pack and 10 pack only previously. And then our new flavor of vanilla cola, also rolling out the new brand ID and then the existing portfolio follows.

Okay. So that's helpful. And then just thinking about that in the context of your Q2 guidance, I know you're lapping a tough volume comp in Q2, but in light of the refresh that is rolling, should we expect some volume growth in Q2 on your top line? Or will it continue to be all price driven?

I would anticipate it largely price driven and the brand refresh will start to impact the business in late Q2 and then through the summer into Q3 as it's fully derived on shelf. So when we look at guidance, we think about the brand refresh as a tailwind, the forthcoming price increase. And then we also have in mind some of our supply chain transitions because all of this taking place and flowing through at one time. They are all factors in our guidance, both timing as well as confirming the full year. So yes, I think we've got a lot of tailwinds coming from the brand refresh. And then the other, I think, same worth mentioning that we talked about in the prepared remarks as well, is that we will increase our investment in marketing in parallel with the brand refresh. And we think about Memorial Day and following, so the obvious kind of peak beverage consumption months as being a tailwind and good support for the new look and feel as well.

Next question and final and then I'll pass it on. Just hoping you could touch a bit on any shelf space gains you might have received especially in light of the brand refresh during the spring resets. And then just exactly what you mentioned about the stepped-up or incremental A&M spend. Any more color on that? And maybe the supply chain changes that you highlighted, just thinking about the ultimate impact on your profitability, especially in the next couple of quarters.

Sure. Let me talk a little bit about step change in-store presence and shelf set and then I'll turn it over to Denis to answer the balance of your question and talk a little bit about the outlook on profitability and touch on supply chain. So we've had some really nice gains at spring resets. Those are taking place now and some customers late February, others rolling into May. In the natural channel, we have really beautiful, full brand blocks, so top to bottom shelf, 4 to 8 feet depending on the store format with our full line represented. And as brand refresh rolls out, including 6 pack cardboard overwraps, we have a great billboard effect in our home natural channel where sort of the origins of our brand. We've had some gains in conventional grocery as well in some games and then some test stores for further gains in mass, which represents significant upside for us in distribution. So when you think about a brand with 6.4% household penetration and a lot of ground still to gain channels like mass and the value channel and drug are still upside for us as we continue to chip away distribution. Some of that will follow in 2024. But in 2023, we had nice gains both at shelf and in other portions of the store such as cold availability in conventional grocery and now increasingly through test stores through the year in the mass channel. And then in a couple of instances, we've gained some new regions within club. So that's all forthcoming. I will turn it over to Denise just to comment on supply chain and the outlook on profitability.

Thank you, Amy. What I would say is that we expect a key onetime payments or associated costs with transitioning our supply chain. And that's primarily the change in the network in terms of our coverage with distribution. So our 3PL partnerships and going from a large number of 3PL partners to smaller groups. And also, as we look at our co-manufacturing arrangements, so we expect there's going to be a few onetime costs that we have to incur that will impact it. In addition to that, we are going to invest heavily in marketing to support the brand refresh each quarter for the remainder of the year. So those costs will impact our adjusted EBITDA margins through the rest of this year. Hopefully, that answers your question.

Any further color on that one?

Just no. I just trying to understand that in the context. I mean, you're guiding top line, just trying to think through the phasing of EBITDA. So we should expect a little bit more pressure on EBITDA this year you're expecting behind drive top line, but ultimately, you're expecting more profitable growth moving forward?

Yes. And I would say Q1 is indicative of our capabilities, but we'll make choices through the balance of the year to support the brand refresh as your only new ones. So that's sort of our outlook, some investments in marketing and then some transitional costs and supply chain, which will ultimately benefit our unit economics and profitability materially going forward.

Our next question is from Christian Ocera with Bank of America.

You have Christian on for Brian. So according to your financial outlook, you guys are expecting 2Q sales to grow 5% to 12% year-over-year. Can you discuss what needs to transpire for you guys to hit the higher end of your sales range? And also just according to Nielsen, retail sales for April were up 4% year-over-year. Is this accurate? Or is Nielsen not accurately capturing the underlying performance of your business?

Yes, Christian, I appreciate the question, and I know you understand how some of this works. So Scan data is not quite reflective of our internally tracked results as it represents a subset of our business. I mean, it's not entirely apples-to-apples. But some of the numbers that you're seeing is because we are launching our -- or excuse me, cycling our original launch in club and because we are cycling our strategy in prior years of a heavy investment in the front end of the year. And so this year, we reduced promo support in the first three to four months of the year in favor of the brand refresh and the peak beverage summer months. So you'll see Scan data kind of catch up to reflect our reported results through the summer. To speak about the guidance and what has to happen for us to hit the top end, we have obviously a diverse portfolio across soda, energy drinks, tea, et cetera, and we'll be rolling our brand refresh out in phases sort of with an eye, as I like to say, on the P&L and the planet. In other words, we're not doing a hard cut over. We'll be rolling that out. And that hand-in-hand with the supply chain transition that Denise mentioned earlier, are both factors in our Q2 guidance. So to hit the top end of that, those will all need to go smoothly. We'll need to manage out of stocks at shelf because we are indeed a high-velocity brand, and we need to continue to gain in-store space in order to build stock out in store at retail to make sure that we can meet demand. And then we'll need to transition our supply chain smoothly as we gain tremendous efficiencies in the changes that we're making now for the long term, but we anticipate that we can have some challenges through the next couple of months just as we transition, as Denise mentioned, to fewer, more efficient warehouses and diversify our co-manufacturers for long-term cost benefits. So to hit the high end of the guidance, we just need continued consumer pull-through, continued consumer base growth, continued increased spending per household, all of which have been a reality for us quarter-over-quarter-over-quarter, and I anticipate with even more tailwinds now with the brand refresh in place, but we also need for all those products to flow through operationally cleanly without any hiccups and to smoothly walk through this supply chain transition we're in the midst of. So hopefully, that answers your question, Christian?

Our next question is from Jim Salera with Stephens.

To ask, not surprising, dozen taking price. You see a little bit of demand elasticity. But given the kind of the traditional

Jim, I think that's a very astute question about our brand because you're right that we have still a relatively small and highly engaged base. I would say the answer to your question is probably. And the reason I say probably and not definitely yes, is because we are still new in the game in taking price increases. Our first material price increase as a company was last August 1. Prior to that, we had done an increase on 6 pack only. But the full portfolio, we took a price increase on August 1, we are lapping those lower price points and deeper promotions right now. And we will have the tailwind going forward of an additional price increase as well as a full lap of the pricing actions that we took last year. And so early indicators are that, yes, indeed, the shopper adjusts to the new price point because our price increases have been simply in keeping with the market, not ahead of it. And so we anticipate that the consumer adjust to new price points pretty quickly and early indicators would say that's true. But it is early days for us out of the gates given our pricing history as a company. Does that answer your question?

Yes. That's great. And maybe I can ask a follow-up on kind of the broader advertising strategy. You met only launch once you guys have put a lot into kind of this brand refresh and having much more visibility at shelf level from the consumer. What channels are you going to use in terms of advertising? And what's kind of the message you want to drive to bring consumers into the brand that might not be familiar with?

Yes, that's a great question and the thing that I'm probably the most excited about. So to answer your question on channel,

Okay. Awesome. Maybe if I could just squeeze in one more question. Going into the summer, do you guys have any thoughts on or if you can provide any detail on kind of LTO offerings, especially with kind of the noncore CSD, the energy and teas to bring them into the mix and maybe get some either cross-sell or to kind of a core soda buyer or bring somebody in who is unaware that

Yes, you mentioned a tremendous opportunity for us, which is driving awareness and trial of our categories beyond soda. We've been in soda for over 10 years and really set the pace for a

Our next question is from Andrew Strelzik with BMO.

I guess I was hoping you could start by talking about the cost environment. Obviously, the company is doing a very good job controlling internally, the cost that it's seeing. But then more broadly, externally, what do you see from a cost environment perspective? How does that contribute to the gross margin outlook? And are you still expecting kind of mid-40s? Is that still the right way to think about gross margins for the balance of the year?

Yes, actually, I will think of margins being in the mid-40s for the rest of the year. We are still seeing some inflation from a cost perspective. but lots of the rates that we saw last year. But we are anticipating with our pricing and promotion strategy and looking at what we expect in supply chain to be in the mid-40s for the rest of the year. Hopefully, that answers your question.

Yes. That's helpful. And the other -- maybe more just a clarification, but I just wanted to confirm, you called out a mix headwind in the press release. Is that just a single serve? Are you seeing anything else either with the channels or pack sizes or anything like that? Just if you could talk about the mix side of the business and how consumers are treating the different areas.

Sure. I think mix for us is an upside just in the sense that we are now seeing more than 50% of our volume coming through packs of 8 packs and larger, so for us, that has been a positive. And then the other opportunity is to continue to drive singles Cola availability. And so singles are performing very well, where they're sold Cola and exceptionally well in natural channel where consumers know the brand, but what's exciting for us is building out single distribution and conventional to win new consumers. So generally speaking, we see a positive mix benefit as consumers continue to trade up. And we remain a home stocking brand, which for us is really a strategic advantage relative to the rest of the category. Andrew, does that answer your question? I wasn't sure what you're asking with regard to the headwind.

So I think in the press release, you actually called out [Indiscernible], if I am not mistaken. And I think last quarter, it was called out as a benefit. And so I guess I was just trying to making sure that there was no consumer impact, trade-down impact, channel shifting anything like that? Maybe I had it wrong, but I believe that was found out in the release here. That's what I was asking about.

Got it. Okay. We anticipate that the mix continues to be supportive, both from a margin and a volume perspective. And then I think what we're most focused on as we roll out the brand refresh is in gaining new consumers. So we're seeking to drive trade ups with our heaviest user and also to adapt our portfolio based on profitability metrics by channel and then drive Cola availability and singles, and that's what we should expect will be a tailwind for us going forward.

Our next question is from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

Can you just comment on the logistical barriers or opportunities from expanding single-serve? Obviously, your distribution network has been less geared toward that kind of offering or things changing or the supply chain initiatives that you're going to put in place over the course of the rest of the year going to give you a greater opportunity to go after that market, that specific SKU?

Sure. I can touch on the distribution component, as you say, of the logistics with a focus on singles, and then I'll turn it over to Denise to just touch on supply chain, if there's any follow-up questions. We are not DSD, right? So direct store delivery, and that is inherently a hindrance in in-store merchandising as it relates to Cola availability across multiple channels. We are fortunate in that, we're a high-velocity, exciting and leading item in natural. So we are able to get solid merchandising from our retail partners in that environment. And once we have great pull-through data, we then get greater interest from conventional despite our lack of direct store distribution and delivery in the other channels. So right now, we are driving maximum single distribution within the capabilities of our route to market as well as studying an evolution of our route to market to accommodate opportunities like drug in the cold box and most of all, convenience. So that will be a next step for us, Chris. We want to do it right and not fast, especially through the lens of profitability and unit economics so we could sign up with potential DSD partners or a partner to expand our immediate consumption footprint efficiently and also in a way that supports profitable growth. But we're not quite there yet and more news to come on that in the following quarters. So we don't really have any true logistical barriers to growing our immediate consumption business within the channels where we play today, but route to market is central in our expansion in the convenience, as you know. Does that answer your question? Or do you have any other follow-ups to that on supply chain where Denise and I could dig in?

Yes. No, that's exactly what I'm getting at, just the ultimate opportunity to expand into some of these high velocity, higher-margin single-serve channels. And it sounds like this is the other foundation to start that kind of journey.

That's right. I think we have the foundation in the form of our unit economics and our path to profitability. And then we have a great data set of performance at strong price points for single sold cold in other channels, and I think that's the perfect combination to take to a partner and build some excitement about our future in convenience.

There are no supply chain obstacles on us expanding singles. So just -- so that's clear. For us, singles is a great opportunity that we continue to pursue. We see the opportunity and the growth since we've launched it. And the supply chain chain is not a hindrance to that.

Our next question is from Joe Feldman with Telsey.

Wanted to ask about the club channel because I know you have some maturity there. And just what you're seeing how the performance has been in your most mature clubs. It sounds like it's continuing to grow. And I thought I heard you say you're getting even more club distribution. So maybe you could just share a little more color around that.

Sure. Thanks, Joe. Yes, we're lapping our launch in the club. So 2022 saw the benefit of sort of the pipeline fill in our first full year in Club, but we are not yet entirely nationally distributed, so we still have some regions to gain and more updates coming on that in the following quarters as we head toward Memorial Day in the summer. We're getting good results and we get even better results when we support the club business with sampling. And so 64% of consumers that buy

Got it. No, that's great. There's a lot of opportunity for sure. And then maybe this -- you probably know, but where do you guys think that the share gains you're having are coming from? Is it just the big obvious ones, just trigger drinks or from the big guys? Or are there other like -- do you see it coming from sort of the other smaller players that are entering this category?

Sure. Yes. So we have really interesting and varied share of stomach data, meaning that we draw share from diet zero sodas. We draw a share from sugary traditional sodas from the mainstream players from isotonics and functional beverages. We also draw volume from sparkling water drinkers who have flavor fatigue, from who really sort of want a satisfying soda. So we offer so many different usage occasions that we have quite a broad base of what we call share of stomach. As more and more better-for-you products come online, we're also finding increased interest in

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session and are out of time for today's call.