Xponential Fitness, Inc.
$5.66
+1.1%Xponential Fitness, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a boutique fitness franchisor in the United States and internationally. The company offers fitness and wellness services, including pilates, barre, cycling, stretching, rowing, yoga, boxing, dancing, running, and functional training under the Club Pilates, Pure Barre, CycleBar, StretchLab, Row House, YogaSix, Rumble, AKT, Stride, and BFT brands. As of December 31, 2021, it had 1,556 franchisees operating 1,954 open studios on an adjusted basis. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Irvine, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E -3.9, earnings yield N/A, momentum +1.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +12.6%, ROIC +33.2%).
Profitability stack: net margin -10.7%, ROE +12.6%, ROIC +33.2%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +207.6%, momentum +1.1%, net margin -10.7%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
Interest or tax burden: Strong operational performance but thin net margins indicate high interest expenses or unfavorable tax position eating into profits.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that XPOF stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 8.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 7.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 6.00 to a high of 8.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Xponential Fitness, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $603K and sold $314K worth of XPOF shares, resulting in $289K of net buying activity.
3 Months
12.1K
66.39K
0
0.00
+66K
+$66K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
6-9 Months
0
0.00
26.4K
200.56K
-201K
-$201K
9-12 Months
70.0K
536.69K
14.5K
113.52K
+423K
+$423K
Top Buyers
Haase Bruce N
Director
$537K
Voss Capital, Lp
10 Percent Owner
$66K
Top Sellers
Hagopian Andrew
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$201K
King Mark James
Officer: Chief Executive Officer
$114K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Moderately bullish with $289K net buying. Insiders show cautious optimism through measured share purchases.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Positive buy/sell ratio. Buying exceeds or matches selling, indicating net positive insider sentiment.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
2 insider buyers and 2 sellers. Equal participation suggests mixed or neutral insider views.
Insider Activity Insight
Sustained buying momentum: Consistent net buying over multiple quarters suggests insiders maintain conviction in the company's prospects. This is particularly meaningful if buying continued through market volatility.
xpof Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on XPOF by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.