Watsco, Inc.

Watsco, Inc.

WSOยทNYSE

$368.36

+1.2%
IndustrialsIndustrial - Distribution

Watsco, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, distributes air conditioning, heating, refrigeration equipment, and related parts and supplies. The company distributes equipment comprising residential ducted and ductless air conditioners, such as gas, electric, and oil furnaces; commercial air conditioning and heating equipment systems; and other specialized equipment. It also offers parts, including replacement compressors, evaporator coils, motors, and other component parts; and supplies, such as thermostats, insulation materials, refrigerants, ductworks, grills, registers, sheet metals, tools, copper tubing, concrete pads, tapes, adhesives, and other ancillary supplies, as well as plumbing and bathroom remodeling supplies. The company serves contractors and dealers that service the replacement and new construction markets for residential and light commercial central air conditioning, heating, and refrigeration systems. As of December 31, 2021, it operated from 671 locations in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and Puerto Rico, as well as exports its products to Latin America and the Caribbean Basin. Watsco, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Miami, Florida.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$14.98B
EPS12.2500
P/E Ratio30.07
Earnings Date07/29/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is elevated (P/E 30.1).

Valuation inputs: P/E 30.1, earnings yield +3.3%, momentum +1.2%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +17.9%, ROIC +14.3%).

Profitability stack: net margin +6.9%, ROE +17.9%, ROIC +14.3%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +27.7%, momentum +1.2%, net margin +6.9%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Watsco, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

WSO ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Watsco, Inc.

Watsco, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

WSO ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that WSO has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $368.36, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Watsco, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $368.36
3Y-21.0%
5Y+74.0%
10Y+159.0%
3Y-
5Y+43.0%
10Y+72.0%
3Y-17.0%
5Y+84.0%
10Y+172.0%
3Y-
5Y+7.0%
10Y+102.0%
3Y-
5Y+3.0%
10Y+125.0%
3Y+28.0%
5Y+79.0%
10Y+138.0%
Watsco, Inc.

Watsco, Inc. Profit Bridge

WSO ยท NYSE
Revenue7.24B
Cost of Goods Sold (5.21B)
Gross Profit2.03B
Operating Expenses (1.34B)
Operating Income692.58M
Interest Expense (0.00)
Other Income/Expense45.09M
Pretax Income737.68M
Income Tax (150.09M)
Net Income496.99M
Net Income
496.99M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

28.0%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

9.6%

Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.

Net Profit Margin

6.9%

Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.

Effective Tax Rate

20.3%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

28.05%
Gross Profit Margin
5%
3Y-
5Y+16.0%
10Y+14.0%
9.57%
Operating Profit Margin
-7%
3Y-16.0%
5Y+21.0%
10Y+17.0%
6.87%
Net Profit Margin
-2%
3Y-17.0%
5Y+29.0%
10Y+59.0%
17.87%
Return on Equity
-11%
3Y-44.0%
5Y-1.0%
10Y-2.0%
11.15%
Return on Assets
-6%
3Y-35.0%
5Y+3.0%
10Y+14.0%
14.31%
Return on Invested Capital
-15%
3Y-45.0%
5Y-9.0%
10Y-6.0%
WSO

Watsco, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

WSO ยท NYSE
Net Income464.18M
Depreciation & Amortization43.75M
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-102.09M
Others145.33M
Capital Expenditures-34.09M
Free Cash Flow535.52M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

115.4%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

6.0%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-27.9%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$102.09M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Watsco, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

WSO ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents392.68M
Net Receivables839.24M
Inventory1.72B
Other Current Assets34.07M
Total Current Assets3 B
Property, Plant & Equipment594.03M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets874.29M
Total Non-Current Assets1 B
Total Assets
4.65B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

3.34x

Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.45x

Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.

Working Capital

2 B

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

68% Current

Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.

Financial Health Insight

Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.

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Watsco, Inc. Street Expectations Map

WSO ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that WSO stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 399.80, with estimates ranging from a low of 349.00 to a high of 485.00.

Lowest Target
349.00
-5.26%
Consensus Target
399.80
8.54%
Highest Target
485.00
31.66%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 399.80, with estimates ranging from a low of 349.00 to a high of 485.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+8.5%

Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.

Analyst Agreement

34.0% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Risk-Reward Profile

6.02x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Watsco, Inc. Insider Positioning

WSO ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $986K worth of WSO shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

2.2K

986.19K

Net Activity

-986K

-$986K

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
CJM

Custer John Michael

Director

2.2K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$986K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $986K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Insider Participation

High Selling

1 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

0.88%
Dividend Yield
-7%
3Y+7.0%
5Y+18.0%
10Y+46.0%
ย 

wso Dividend History

WSO
10Y CAGR +15%
Latest $3.3
Annual $12.3
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +10%