Valvoline Inc.
$34.65
-0.49%Valvoline Inc. manufactures, markets, and supplies, engine and automotive maintenance products and services. It operates through two segments, Retail Services and Global Products. The company offers lubricants for passenger car, light duty, and heavy duty; antifreeze/coolants for original equipment manufacturers; functional and maintenance chemicals, such as brake fluids and power steering fluids, as well as specialty coatings for automotive and industrial applications; and oil and air filters for light-duty vehicles. It also provides batteries, windshield wiper blades, light bulbs, serpentine belts, and drain plugs. In addition, the company operates Valvoline instant oil change service centers. As of September 30, 2021, it operated and franchised approximately 1,594 quick-lube locations under the Valvoline Instant Oil Change brand in the United States and the Great Canadian Oil Change brand in Canada. The company also serves car dealers, general repair shops, and third-party quick lube locations, as well as through distributors and licensees. It has operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded in 1866 and is headquartered in Lexington, Kentucky.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 21.0).
Valuation inputs: P/E 21.0, earnings yield +4.8%, momentum -0.5%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +62.3%, ROIC +12.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +12.3%, ROE +62.3%, ROIC +12.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +87.3%, momentum -0.5%, net margin +12.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Valvoline Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Valvoline Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Valvoline Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Strong gross margins indicate healthy pricing and efficient production or service delivery.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Strong net margins indicate efficient operations and favorable tax/interest management.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
Valvoline Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Declining FCF warrants attention. Investigate whether due to temporary factors or fundamental deterioration.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Capital-intensive growth: Heavy reinvestment limits current cash available but may drive future returns. Assess whether CapEx supports compelling growth opportunities with adequate ROI.
Valvoline Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.
Valvoline Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that VVV stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 41.44, with estimates ranging from a low of 35.00 to a high of 47.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 41.44, with estimates ranging from a low of 35.00 to a high of 47.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Valvoline Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $932K and sold $406K worth of VVV shares, resulting in $525K of net buying activity.
3 Months
14.1K
450.88K
0
0.00
+451K
+$451K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
8.0K
304.15K
-304K
-$304K
6-9 Months
14.5K
452.79K
3.2K
102.02K
+351K
+$351K
9-12 Months
710
27.95K
0
0.00
+28K
+$28K
Top Buyers
Willis J Kevin
Officer: Chief Financial Officer
$660K
Flees Lori Ann
Director, Officer: President & Ceo
$139K
Freeland Richard Joseph
Director
$100K
Slater Jennifer Lynn
Director
$33K
Top Sellers
O'Daniel Julie Marie
Officer: Chief Legal Officer
$268K
Caldwell Jonathan L.
Officer: Chief People Officer
$138K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Positive insider sentiment with $525K net buying. Buying activity substantially exceeds selling, indicating insider confidence.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Strong buy/sell ratio. Buying is at least double the selling activity, suggesting robust insider confidence.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.
vvv Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on VVV by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.