The Timken Company
$131.82
+0.58%The Timken Company designs, manufactures, and manages engineered bearings and power transmission products worldwide. It operates in two segments, Mobile Industries and Process Industries. The Mobile Industries segment offers a portfolio of bearings, seals, and lubrication devices and systems, as well as power transmission components, engineered chains, augers, belts, couplings, clutches, brakes, and related products and maintenance services to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and end-users of off-highway equipment for the agricultural, construction, mining, outdoor power equipment, and power sports markets; and on-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks, as well as rail cars and locomotives. It also provides power transmission systems and flight-critical components for civil and military aircraft, which include bearings, rotor-head assemblies, helicopter transmission systems, turbine engine components, gears, and housings. This segment sells its parts through a network of authorized automotive and heavy-truck distributors to individual end-users, equipment owners, operators, and maintenance shops. The Process Industries segment provides industrial bearings and assemblies; power transmission components, such as gears and gearboxes; and linear motion products, couplings, seals, lubricants, chains, belts, and related products and services to OEMs and end-users in various industries. It also offers aftermarket sales and service needs through a network of authorized industrial distributors; and repair and service for bearings and gearboxes, as well as electric motor rewind, repair, and services to end-users. The company offers its products under the Timken, Philadelphia Gear, Drives, Cone Drive, Rollon, Lovejoy, Diamond, BEKA, and Groeneveld brands. The Timken Company was founded in 1899 and is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 31.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 31.9, earnings yield +3.1%, momentum +0.6%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +9.1%, ROIC +7.4%).
Profitability stack: net margin +6.3%, ROE +9.1%, ROIC +7.4%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +49.9%, momentum +0.6%, net margin +6.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
The Timken Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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The Timken Company Fair Value Envelope
The Timken Company Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.
The Timken Company Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Exceptional cash generation: High-quality earnings converting to growing free cash flow. The company demonstrates strong pricing power, efficient operations, and disciplined capital allocation.
The Timken Company Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
The Timken Company Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that TKR stock may experience modest gains over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 136.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 117.00 to a high of 158.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 136.67, with estimates ranging from a low of 117.00 to a high of 158.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
The Timken Company Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $15.13M worth of TKR shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
60.6K
7.19M
-7.2M
-$7.19M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
58.6K
6.28M
-6.3M
-$6.28M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
15.8K
1.28M
-1.3M
-$1.28M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
4.9K
385.38K
-385K
-$385K
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Kyle Richard G
Director
$12.56M
Timken John M Jr
Director
$1.75M
Patel Hansal N.
Officer: Evp, Gc And Secretary
$655K
Discenza Michael Anthony
Officer: Evp, Chief Financial Officer
$168K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $15.13M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
tkr Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on TKR by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.