Simon Property Group, Inc.
$205.34
+0.89%Simon is a real estate investment trust engaged in the ownership of premier shopping, dining, entertainment and mixed-use destinations and an S&P 100 company (Simon Property Group, NYSE: SPG). Our properties across North America, Europe and Asia provide community gathering places for millions of people every day and generate billions in annual sales.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E 14.5, earnings yield +6.9%, momentum +0.9%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +88.6%, ROIC +8.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +72.5%, ROE +88.6%, ROIC +8.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +83.5%, momentum +0.9%, net margin +72.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Simon Property Group, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Simon Property Group, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Moderate capital requirements typical of many stable businesses. Healthy balance between reinvestment and cash generation.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that SPG stock may see slight declines over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 203.10, with estimates ranging from a low of 181.00 to a high of 230.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 203.10, with estimates ranging from a low of 181.00 to a high of 230.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Fair value territory. Stock trading near consensus target suggests limited near-term catalysts. Focus on fundamental developments.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Efficient pricing: Stock trading at fair value with strong consensus suggests market has priced in expectations. Look for fundamental inflection points or new catalysts to drive meaningful moves.
Simon Property Group, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.81M and sold $2.01M worth of SPG shares, resulting in $200K of net selling activity.
3 Months
2.2K
412.99K
0
0.00
+413K
+$413K
3-6 Months
2.7K
507.97K
10.0K
2.01M
-1.5M
-$1.50M
6-9 Months
2.7K
500.71K
0
0.00
+501K
+$501K
9-12 Months
2.4K
387.26K
0
0.00
+387K
+$387K
Top Buyers
Leibowitz Reuben S
Director
$349K
Glasscock Larry C
Director
$264K
Smith Daniel C.
Director
$252K
Lewis Randall J
Director
$246K
Rodkin Gary M
Director
$165K
Top Sellers
Rulli John
Officer: Chief Administrative Officer
$2.01M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Slightly bearish with $200K net selling. Selling modestly exceeds buying, which could be routine diversification rather than concern.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Moderately negative ratio. Selling is roughly double the buying, which may be routine or signal caution.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
5 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Balanced insider activity: Roughly equal buying and selling suggests normal portfolio management rather than strong directional signals. Look to other metrics for clearer investment insights.
spg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on SPG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.