Sable Offshore Corp.

Sable Offshore Corp.

SOC·NYSE

$13.64

+0.55%
EnergyOil & Gas Drilling

Sable Offshore Corp. engages in the oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States. It operates through three platforms located offshore California and an onshore processing facility comprised of 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres. The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Houston, Texas.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$1.36B
EPS-4.1800
P/E Ratio-3.26
Earnings Date08/11/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

Medium confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E -3.3).

Valuation inputs: P/E -3.3, earnings yield N/A, momentum +0.6%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE -76.8%, ROIC -56.9%).

Profitability stack: net margin 0.0%, ROE -76.8%, ROIC -56.9%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +69.3%, momentum +0.6%, net margin 0.0%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

soc

Sable Offshore Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

SOC · NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Sable Offshore Corp.

Sable Offshore Corp. Fair Value Envelope

SOC · NYSE

Our analysis suggests that SOC has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $13.645, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Sable Offshore Corp..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $13.645
3Y+5698.0%
5Y+696567.0%
10Y+696567.0%

No Revenue Data

SOC has not reported any revenue values in the available annual periods.

3Y+15731.0%
5Y+24753189.0%
10Y+24753189.0%
3Y+20414.0%
5Y+65493755.0%
10Y+65493755.0%
3Y+44774.0%
5Y+142467678.0%
10Y+142467678.0%
3Y+498.0%
5Y+572119.0%
10Y+572119.0%
Sable Offshore Corp.

Sable Offshore Corp. Profit Bridge

SOC · NYSE
Revenue0.00
Cost of Goods Sold (14.51M)
Gross Profit-14.51M
Operating Expenses (393.77M)
Operating Income-408.28M
Interest Expense (88.25M)
Other Income/Expense9.79M
Pretax Income-398.49M
Income Tax (11.67M)
Net Income-410.16M
Net Income
-410.16M

Profitability Analysis

No Gross Profit Margin Data

SOC has not reported any gross profit margin values in the available annual periods.

No Operating Profit Margin Data

SOC has not reported any operating profit margin values in the available annual periods.

No Net Profit Margin Data

SOC has not reported any net profit margin values in the available annual periods.

-76.77%
Return on Equity
-53%
3Y+7959.0%
5Y+981.0%
10Y+981.0%
-23.56%
Return on Assets
-41%
3Y+2546.0%
5Y+4226.0%
10Y+4226.0%
-56.91%
Return on Invested Capital
146%
3Y+2546.0%
5Y-
10Y-
SOC

Sable Offshore Corp. Cash Conversion Engine

SOC · NYSE
Net Income-410.16M
Depreciation & Amortization14.51M
Stock-Based Compensation42.68M
Change in Working Capital-9.44M
Others-958.00K
Capital Expenditures-417.62M
Free Cash Flow-769.33M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

187.6%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

-118.7%

Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.

FCF Growth Trend

-196.6%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$9.44M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.

soc

Sable Offshore Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile

SOC · NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents52.17M
Net Receivables1.54M
Inventory6.31M
Other Current Assets25.00M
Total Current Assets85 M
Property, Plant & Equipment0.00
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets1.64B
Total Non-Current Assets2 B
Total Assets
1.73B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

0.08x

Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

3.10x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

-992797000

Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.

Asset Composition

5% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

Financial Health Insight

Financial stress indicators: Both liquidity and leverage metrics raise concerns. The company may face challenges meeting obligations and should focus on strengthening its balance sheet.

soc

Sable Offshore Corp. Street Expectations Map

SOC · NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that SOC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 25.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 22.00 to a high of 28.00.

Lowest Target
22.00
61.23%
Consensus Target
25.00
83.22%
Highest Target
28.00
105.20%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 25.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 22.00 to a high of 28.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+83.2%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

24.0% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

soc

Sable Offshore Corp. Insider Positioning

SOC · NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $19.09M worth of SOC shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

1.2M

19.09M

Net Activity

-19.1M

-$19.09M

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
DA

Duenner Anthony

Officer: See Remarks

359.1K shares3 transactions

$5.73M

2
PGD

Patrinely Gregory D.

Officer: Evp, Cfo

359.1K shares3 transactions

$5.73M

3
FJC

Flores James Caldwell

Officer: President, Coo

359.1K shares3 transactions

$5.73M

4
FJC

Flores James C

Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Chairman & Ceo

140.1K shares2 transactions

$1.88M

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $19.09M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$19.09M

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

No Dividend Yield Data

SOC has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.

 

soc Dividend History

SOC
10Y CAGR +0%
Latest $0
Annual $0
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: +0%