$13.24
-2.4%Sable Offshore Corp. engages in the oil and gas exploration and development activities in the United States. It operates through three platforms located offshore California and an onshore processing facility comprised of 16 federal leases across approximately 76,000 acres. The company was formerly known as Flame Acquisition Corp. and changed its name to Sable Offshore Corp. in February 2024. Sable Offshore Corp. was incorporated in 2020 and is based in Houston, Texas.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | -$175.9M | -$87.9M | -$44.0M | -$22.0M | -$11.0M | -$5.5M | -$2.7M | -$1.4M | -$686.9K | -$343.5K |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$41.8M | -$20.9M | -$10.4M | -$5.2M | -$2.6M | -$1.3M | -$652.5K | -$326.3K | -$163.1K | -$81.6K |
| Owner Earnings | -$217.6M | -$108.8M | -$54.4M | -$27.2M | -$13.6M | -$6.8M | -$3.4M | -$1.7M | -$850.1K | -$425.0K |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | -$201.5M | -$93.3M | -$43.2M | -$20.0M | -$9.3M | -$4.3M | -$2.0M | -$918.5K | -$425.2K | -$196.9K |
Snapshot
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Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.