Rayonier Inc.
$20.93
-0.26%Rayonier is a leading timberland real estate investment trust with assets located in some of the most productive softwood timber growing regions in the United States and New Zealand. As of December 31, 2020, Rayonier owned or leased under long-term agreements approximately 2.7 million acres of timberlands located in the U.S. South (1.73 million acres), U.S. Pacific Northwest (507,000 acres) and New Zealand (417,000 acres). The Company also acts as the managing member in a private equity timber fund business with three funds comprising approximately 141,000 acres. On a look-through basis, the Company's ownership in the timber fund business equates to approximately 17,000 acres.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 47.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 47.6, earnings yield +2.1%, momentum -0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +21.5%, ROIC +2.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +97.9%, ROE +21.5%, ROIC +2.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +33.9%, momentum -0.3%, net margin +97.9%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Rayonier Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Rayonier Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Rayonier Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Healthy operating margins demonstrate effective cost control and strong business fundamentals.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Rayonier Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cash—review working capital trends and capital intensity.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Rayonier Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
Rayonier Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that RYN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 27.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 24.00 to a high of 33.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 27.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 24.00 to a high of 33.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Rayonier Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $3.99M worth of RYN shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
2.9K
61.82K
-62K
-$62K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
169.2K
3.63M
-3.6M
-$3.63M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
14.3K
301.06K
-301K
-$301K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Cremers Eric J
Director, Officer: Executive Chairman
$3.63M
Corr Christopher T
Officer: Svp, Real Estate Development
$301K
Wasechek Wayne
Officer: Evp And Cfo
$62K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $3.99M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
ryn Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on RYN by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.