$20.89
-0.43%Rayonier is a leading timberland real estate investment trust with assets located in some of the most productive softwood timber growing regions in the United States and New Zealand. As of December 31, 2020, Rayonier owned or leased under long-term agreements approximately 2.7 million acres of timberlands located in the U.S. South (1.73 million acres), U.S. Pacific Northwest (507,000 acres) and New Zealand (417,000 acres). The Company also acts as the managing member in a private equity timber fund business with three funds comprising approximately 141,000 acres. On a look-through basis, the Company's ownership in the timber fund business equates to approximately 17,000 acres.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $333.6M | $433.5M | $563.3M | $732.1M | $951.3M | $1.2B | $1.6B | $2.1B | $2.7B | $3.5B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$13.0M | -$16.9M | -$21.9M | -$28.5M | -$37.1M | -$48.2M | -$62.6M | -$81.3M | -$105.7M | -$137.3M |
| Owner Earnings | $320.6M | $416.6M | $541.4M | $703.6M | $914.3M | $1.2B | $1.5B | $2.0B | $2.6B | $3.4B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $296.8M | $357.2M | $429.8M | $517.1M | $622.2M | $748.7M | $900.9M | $1.1B | $1.3B | $1.6B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.