Redwire Corporation
$18.62
-10%Redwire Corporation, a space infrastructure company, develops, manufactures, and sells mission critical space solutions and components for national security, civil, and commercial space markets in the United States, Luxembourg, Germany, South Korea, Poland, and internationally. The company provides various antennas; and advanced sensors and components, which include solar arrays, composite booms, radio frequency antennas, payload adapters, space-qualifies camera systems, and star trackers and sun sensors. It also sells a proprietary enterprise software suite that enables digital engineering and generation of interactive modeling and simulations of individual components, entire spacecraft, and full constellations in a cloud-based Software as a Service business model. In addition, the company offers on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing solutions; and low-earth orbit commercialization, digitally engineered spacecraft, and space domain awareness and resiliency technology solutions. Redwire Corporation is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -8.2).
Valuation inputs: P/E -8.2, earnings yield N/A, momentum -10.0%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -21.4%, ROIC -15.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin -67.5%, ROE -21.4%, ROIC -15.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +26.9%, momentum -10.0%, net margin -67.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Redwire Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Redwire Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Redwire Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Operating losses indicate the core business is unprofitable. Requires restructuring or revenue growth.
Net Profit Margin
Net losses indicate the company is burning cash. Sustainability depends on path to profitability.
Profitability Insight
High margin compression: Large gap between gross and net margins suggests operational inefficiencies or heavy debt burden. Focus on expense management and deleveraging.
Redwire Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
Redwire Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Conservative capital structure. The company relies primarily on equity financing, indicating low financial risk.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Strong financial foundation: Excellent liquidity combined with conservative leverage suggests the company is well-positioned to weather economic uncertainties and fund growth opportunities.
Redwire Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that RDW stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 24.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 16.17, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 24.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
Extreme uncertainty: Massive dispersion in price targets reflects fundamental disagreement on business trajectory. This could signal transformation, disruption, or complex valuation—requires deep sector expertise and contrarian mindset.
Redwire Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $33.82M and sold $888.15M worth of RDW shares, resulting in $854.33M of net selling activity.
3 Months
0
0.00
50.4M
542.96M
-543.0M
-$542.96M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
30.1M
345.19M
-345.2M
-$345.19M
6-9 Months
11.0M
33.82M
0
0.00
+33.8M
+$33.82M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Bain Capital Credit Member, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$33.55M
Cannito Peter Anthony Jr
Director, Officer: Chairman And Ceo
$250K
Futch Aaron Michael
Officer: Evp, Gc And Secretary
$25K
Top Sellers
Ae Red Holdings, Llc
Director
$888.15M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $854.33M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
3 insider buyers vs. 1 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
No Dividend Yield Data
RDW has not reported any dividend yield values in the available annual periods.
rdw Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on RDW by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.