$303.70
+1.5%Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500 and FT Global 500, is a REIT that primarily acquires, develops, owns and operates self-storage facilities. At September 30, 2020, we had: (i) interests in 2,504 self-storage facilities located in 38 states with approximately 171 million net rentable square feet in the United States, (ii) an approximate 35% common equity interest in Shurgard Self Storage SA (Euronext Brussels:SHUR) which owned 239 self-storage facilities located in seven Western European nations with approximately 13 million net rentable square feet operated under the Shurgard brand and (iii) an approximate 42% common equity interest in PS Business Parks, Inc. (NYSE:PSB) which owned and operated approximately 28 million rentable square feet of commercial space at September 30, 2020. Our headquarters are located in Glendale, California.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.4B | $3.6B | $3.9B | $4.2B | $4.5B | $4.8B | $5.1B | $5.5B | $5.8B | $6.3B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$61.9M | -$66.2M | -$70.8M | -$75.8M | -$81.1M | -$86.7M | -$92.8M | -$99.2M | -$106.2M | -$113.6M |
| Owner Earnings | $3.3B | $3.6B | $3.8B | $4.1B | $4.4B | $4.7B | $5.0B | $5.4B | $5.7B | $6.1B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $3.1B | $3.1B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $3.0B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.9B | $2.8B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.