PagerDuty, Inc.
$9.30
-8.3%PagerDuty, Inc. operates a digital operations management platform in the United States, Japan, and internationally. Its digital operations management platform collects data digital signals from virtually any software-enabled system or device, and leverage powerful machine learning to correlate, process, and predict opportunities and issues. It serves various industries, including software and technology, telecommunications, retail, travel and hospitality, media and entertainment, and financial services. PagerDuty, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 4.9).
Valuation inputs: P/E 4.9, earnings yield +20.5%, momentum -8.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +68.6%, ROIC +0.8%).
Profitability stack: net margin +35.3%, ROE +68.6%, ROIC +0.8%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +72.7%, momentum -8.3%, net margin +35.3%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
PagerDuty, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Loading price and EPS data...
PagerDuty, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
PagerDuty, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
PagerDuty, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Moderate conversion rate. Some gap between earnings and cash flow may warrant investigation into working capital or non-cash items.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Moderate working capital outflow. Typical for growing businesses, but ensure it's supporting revenue growth, not inefficiency.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
PagerDuty, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Strong liquidity. The company has adequate resources to meet short-term liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Balanced asset mix between current and non-current assets, typical of many stable businesses.
PagerDuty, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that PD stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 16.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 11.33, with estimates ranging from a low of 9.00 to a high of 16.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.
Analyst Agreement
High uncertainty. Very wide target spread indicates significant disagreement among analysts—major valuation uncertainty or transformation underway.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
High uncertainty: Wide dispersion indicates analysts struggle to agree on valuation—proceed with caution and independent analysis.
Market Sentiment Insight
High risk, high reward: Substantial upside potential exists, but wide analyst disagreement signals execution risk or unclear catalysts. Thorough due diligence essential before committing capital.
PagerDuty, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $6.79M worth of PD shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
463.5K
3.23M
-3.2M
-$3.23M
3-6 Months
0
0.00
266.7K
3.56M
-3.6M
-$3.56M
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
48
864.00
-864
-$864
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Solomon Dan Alexandru
Director
$3.56M
Tejada Jennifer
Director, Officer: Executive Chair
$3.23M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $6.79M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
pd Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on PD by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.