NRG Energy, Inc.
$133.39
-0.28%NRG Energy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated power company in the United States. It operates through Texas, East, and West. The company is involved in the producing, selling, and delivering electricity and related products and services to approximately 6 million residential, commercial, industrial, and wholesale customers. It generates electricity using natural gas, coal, oil, solar, nuclear, and battery storage. The company also provides system power, distributed generation, renewable products, backup generation, storage and distributed solar, demand response, and energy efficiency, and advisory services, as well as carbon management and specialty services; and on-site energy solutions. In addition, it trades in electric power, natural gas, and related commodities; environmental products; weather products; and financial products, including forwards, futures, options, and swaps. Further, the company procures fuels; provides transportation services; and directly sells energy, services, and products and services to retail customers under the NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, Stream, and XOOM Energy. As of December 31, 2021, it owns and leases power generation portfolio with approximately 18,000 megawatts of capacity at 25 plants. NRG Energy, Inc. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is elevated (P/E 32.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 32.6, earnings yield +3.1%, momentum -0.3%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is strong (ROE +51.4%, ROIC +7.0%).
Profitability stack: net margin +2.8%, ROE +51.4%, ROIC +7.0%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +94.2%, momentum -0.3%, net margin +2.8%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
NRG Energy, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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NRG Energy, Inc. Fair Value Envelope
NRG Energy, Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
NRG Energy, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Strong cash conversion. Most reported earnings translate into actual cash flow, suggesting solid fundamentals.
CapEx Intensity
Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.
FCF Growth Trend
Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Working capital strain: Significant cash tied up in operations. Monitor receivables collection, inventory turns, and payment terms to optimize cash conversion cycle.
NRG Energy, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Warning: Liquidity concerns. Current assets may not be sufficient to cover short-term obligations.
Working Capital
Negative working capital indicates short-term liabilities exceed short-term assets—potential liquidity stress.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
NRG Energy, Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NRG stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 194.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 162.00 to a high of 211.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 194.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 162.00 to a high of 211.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
NRG Energy, Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $2.35B worth of NRG shares, with no buying activity reported.
3 Months
0
0.00
5.0K
783.25K
-783K
-$783K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
14.3M
2.35B
-2.3B
-$2.35B
6-9 Months
0
0.00
30.7K
4.93M
-4.9M
-$4.93M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
No buying activity
Top Sellers
Ls Power Equity Advisors, Llc
10 Percent Owner
$2.35B
Kinney Virginia
Officer: Exec Vp, Chief Admin Officer
$4.06M
Liyanearachchi Dak
Officer: Exec Vp, Chief Technology Ofc.
$1.65M
Chung Bruce
Officer: Evp & Cfo
$766K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $2.35B net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
nrg Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NRG by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.