Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$24.31
-7.4%A data-driven managing general agent for flood insurance. Sells residential and commercial flood insurance (primary & excess), and parametric earthquake insurance. Uses AI and machine learning platforms (e.g. underwriting engine "Triton", policy management "Poseidon"), distributes via agency network, and does not take balance sheet risk or handle claims themselves; rather, insurance and reinsurance carriers do.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
Medium confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E -121.5).
Valuation inputs: P/E -121.5, earnings yield N/A, momentum -7.4%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE -16.4%, ROIC +4.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +23.4%, ROE -16.4%, ROIC +4.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceRisk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +448.4%, momentum -7.4%, net margin +23.4%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Fair Value Envelope
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.
Net Profit Margin
Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.
Effective Tax Rate
Higher tax burden may reflect limited tax optimization or operations in high-tax jurisdictions.
Profitability Insight
Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.
CapEx Intensity
Asset-light business model. Low capital requirements leave more cash available for shareholders and growth investments.
FCF Growth Trend
Flat FCF growth. Stable but not expanding—monitor for signs of business maturity or temporary headwinds.
Working Capital Impact
Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Asset-light business model with high liquidity. Majority of assets are easily convertible to cash.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that NP stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 27.81, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 32.50.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 27.81, with estimates ranging from a low of 20.00 to a high of 32.50.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.
Risk-Reward Profile
Balanced risk-reward. Upside and downside potential relatively symmetric. Suitable for moderate risk tolerance with conviction in thesis.
Analyst Conviction
Neutral sentiment. Fair value pricing with moderate agreement suggests wait-and-see approach or catalyst-driven opportunity.
Market Sentiment Insight
Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $4.91M and sold $326.87M worth of NP shares, resulting in $321.96M of net selling activity.
3 Months
50.0K
935.35K
11.3M
298.78M
-297.8M
-$297.85M
3-6 Months
23.0K
494.41K
0
0.00
+494K
+$494K
6-9 Months
174.1K
3.48M
1.5M
28.09M
-24.6M
-$24.61M
9-12 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
Top Buyers
Steiner James
Director, Officer: Cfo And Secretary
$2.38M
Burgess Trevor R
Director, 10 Percent Owner, Officer: Ceo & Chairman Of The Board
$1.94M
Vostrizansky Michael Warren
Director
$494K
Carlon Jonathan Winant
Director
$100K
Top Sellers
Ftv Vii, L.P.
10 Percent Owner
$172.16M
Bsiv Hold 101, Lp
10 Percent Owner
$154.71M
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $321.96M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.
np Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on NP by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.