$21.97
-0.63%Northern Oil and Gas, Inc., an independent energy company, engages in the acquisition, exploration, exploitation, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties in the United States. The company primarily holds interests in the Williston Basin, the Appalachian Basin, and the Permian Basin in the United States. As of December 31, 2021, it owned working interests in 7,436 gross producing wells; and had proved reserves of 287,682 million barrels of oil equivalent. The company is based in Minnetonka, Minnesota.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $3.0B | $6.0B | $12.0B | $24.1B | $48.2B | $96.3B | $192.7B | $385.4B | $770.7B | $1,541.4B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$501.0M | -$1.0B | -$2.0B | -$4.0B | -$8.0B | -$16.0B | -$32.1B | -$64.1B | -$128.3B | -$256.5B |
| Owner Earnings | $2.5B | $5.0B | $10.0B | $20.1B | $40.2B | $80.3B | $160.6B | $321.2B | $642.5B | $1,284.9B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $2.3B | $4.3B | $8.0B | $14.8B | $27.3B | $50.6B | $93.7B | $173.5B | $321.4B | $595.2B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.