Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

NGVCยทNYSE

$28.61

-1.7%
Consumer DefensiveGrocery Stores

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, retails natural and organic groceries, and dietary supplements in the United States. The company's stores offer natural and organic grocery products, such as organic produce; bulk food products; private label products comprising pasta, pasta sauce, ketchup, canned beans and vegetables, frozen vegetables, frozen fruits, frozen meals, frozen pizza, bread, baking mixes, plant based butter, olive and coconut oil, coconut milk, honey, maple syrup, preserves, chocolate, coffee, bacon, beef jerky, canned seafood, popcorn, tortilla chips, taco shells, eggs, cheese, apple sauce, apple cider vinegar, spring water, paper products, cleaning products, and other products; dry, frozen, and canned groceries; meat and seafood products; dairy products, dairy substitutes, and eggs; prepared foods; bread and baked products; beverages; and beer, wine, and hard cider products. Its stores also provide private label dietary supplements; body care products consisting of cosmetics, skin care, hair care, fragrance, and personal care products containing natural and organic ingredients; pet care and food products; books and handouts; and household and general merchandise, including cleaning supplies, paper products, and dish and laundry soaps, as well as other common household products, such as diapers. The company operates its retail stores under the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage trademark. As of February 1, 2022, it operated 162 stores in 20 states. The company also offers science-based nutrition education programs to help customers make informed health and nutrition choices. Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. was founded in 1955 and is headquartered in Lakewood, Colorado.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$659.20M
EPS2.0200
P/E Ratio14.16
Earnings Date08/06/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is mid-range (P/E 14.2).

Valuation inputs: P/E 14.2, earnings yield +7.1%, momentum -1.7%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +21.9%, ROIC +8.8%).

Profitability stack: net margin +3.5%, ROE +21.9%, ROIC +8.8%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +68.3%, momentum -1.7%, net margin +3.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

NGVC ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Fair Value Envelope

NGVC ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that NGVC has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $28.61, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $28.61
3Y+115.0%
5Y+127.0%
10Y+296.0%
3Y+22.0%
5Y+28.0%
10Y+89.0%
3Y+117.0%
5Y+132.0%
10Y+305.0%
3Y+39.0%
5Y-17.0%
10Y+92.0%
3Y+192.0%
5Y-35.0%
10Y-197.0%
3Y+1.0%
5Y-2.0%
10Y+138.0%
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Profit Bridge

NGVC ยท NYSE
Revenue1.33B
Cost of Goods Sold (932.96M)
Gross Profit397.88M
Operating Expenses (335.89M)
Operating Income61.99M
Interest Expense (3.06M)
Other Income/Expense-3.06M
Pretax Income58.93M
Income Tax (12.48M)
Net Income46.44M
Net Income
46.44M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

29.9%

Moderate margins typical of competitive industries. Monitor for pricing pressure or rising costs.

Operating Margin

4.7%

Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.

Net Profit Margin

3.5%

Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.

Effective Tax Rate

21.2%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Room for improvement: Moderate profitability with opportunities to enhance margins through better cost management or pricing strategy.

29.90%
Gross Profit Margin
2%
3Y+7.0%
5Y+9.0%
10Y+5.0%
4.66%
Operating Profit Margin
23%
3Y+68.0%
5Y+74.0%
10Y+61.0%
3.49%
Net Profit Margin
28%
3Y+78.0%
5Y+81.0%
10Y+115.0%
21.87%
Return on Equity
12%
3Y+59.0%
5Y+89.0%
10Y+142.0%
6.93%
Return on Assets
34%
3Y+115.0%
5Y+136.0%
10Y+70.0%
8.85%
Return on Invested Capital
36%
3Y+116.0%
5Y+155.0%
10Y+42.0%
NGVC

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Cash Conversion Engine

NGVC ยท NYSE
Net Income46.44M
Depreciation & Amortization31.81M
Stock-Based Compensation3.96M
Change in Working Capital10.07M
Others-34.37M
Capital Expenditures-31.20M
Free Cash Flow24.10M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

51.9%

Weak cash conversion. Significant portion of earnings not converting to cashโ€”review working capital trends and capital intensity.

CapEx Intensity

56.4%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

-31.3%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

+$10.07M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Deteriorating cash generation: Both declining FCF and weak conversion rate signal fundamental challenges. Investigate margin pressure, rising costs, or working capital issues.

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Funding & Solvency Profile

NGVC ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents20.72M
Net Receivables13.10M
Inventory129.69M
Other Current Assets7.05M
Total Current Assets171 M
Property, Plant & Equipment497.25M
Goodwill & Intangible Assets11.32M
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets5.57M
Total Non-Current Assets503 M
Total Assets
684.70M

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.05x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.74x

Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.

Working Capital

8 M

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

25% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Street Expectations Map

NGVC ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that NGVC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 40.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 40.00 to a high of 40.00.

Lowest Target
40.00
39.81%
Consensus Target
40.00
39.81%
Highest Target
40.00
39.81%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 40.00, with estimates ranging from a low of 40.00 to a high of 40.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+39.8%

Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.

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Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. Insider Positioning

NGVC ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $276K worth of NGVC shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

3.0K

87.12K

Net Activity

-87K

-$87K

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

4.5K

189.02K

Net Activity

-189K

-$189K

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
IL

Isely Lark

Other: 13D Group Member

4.5K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$189K

2
IC

Isely Charity

Other: 13D Group Member

3.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$87K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $276K net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$87K

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

2 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Persistent selling pressure: Consistent insider selling with weak buy/sell ratio suggests insiders may be capitalizing on current valuation. Exercise caution and review recent earnings quality and management commentary.

0.58%
Dividend Yield
-3%
3Y-32.0%
5Y+45.0%
10Y-
ย 

ngvc Dividend History

NGVC
10Y CAGR +8%
Latest $0.15
Annual $0.69
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%