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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.

NCDL·NYSE

$12.69

-4.3%
Financial ServicesAsset Management

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$626.72M
EPS1.3000
P/E Ratio9.76
Earnings Date08/05/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 9.8).

Valuation inputs: P/E 9.8, earnings yield +10.2%, momentum -4.3%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is soft (ROE +7.5%, ROIC +6.4%).

Profitability stack: net margin +32.5%, ROE +7.5%, ROIC +6.4%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +57.4%, momentum -4.3%, net margin +32.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Market vs Earnings Trajectory

NCDL · NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Fair Value Envelope

NCDL · NYSE

Our analysis suggests that NCDL has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $12.69, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp..

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $12.69
3Y+76.0%
5Y+202.0%
10Y+271.0%
3Y+331.0%
5Y+2217.0%
10Y+4304.0%
3Y+280.0%
5Y+2959.0%
10Y+4472.0%
3Y+253.0%
5Y+1079.0%
10Y+973.0%
3Y+253.0%
5Y+1079.0%
10Y+973.0%
3Y+64.0%
5Y+481.0%
10Y+2264.0%
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Profit Bridge

NCDL · NYSE
Revenue201.84M
Cost of Goods Sold (30.54M)
Gross Profit171.31M
Operating Expenses (27.64M)
Operating Income143.66M
Interest Expense (77.90M)
Other Income/Expense-77.90M
Pretax Income65.76M
Income Tax (149.00K)
Net Income65.61M
Net Income
65.61M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

84.9%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

71.2%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

32.5%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

0.2%

Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

84.87%
Gross Profit Margin
42%
3Y+70.0%
5Y+75.0%
10Y-5.0%
71.18%
Operating Profit Margin
14%
3Y+92.0%
5Y+189.0%
10Y+6.0%
32.51%
Net Profit Margin
-48%
3Y-12.0%
5Y+32.0%
10Y+4.0%
7.50%
Return on Equity
-37%
3Y+128.0%
5Y+451.0%
10Y+760.0%
3.19%
Return on Assets
-41%
3Y+132.0%
5Y+426.0%
10Y+93.0%
643.26%
Return on Invested Capital
11417%
3Y+45606.0%
5Y-
10Y-
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Cash Conversion Engine

NCDL · NYSE
Net Income65.61M
Depreciation & Amortization0.00
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital10.80M
Others12.28M
Capital Expenditures0.00
Free Cash Flow88.69M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

135.2%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

FCF Growth Trend

-35.0%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

+$10.80M

Working capital inflow boosted cash flow. Efficient management of receivables, inventory, and payables contributing positively.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Asset-light with strong cash conversion: Low capital requirements combined with efficient cash generation creates significant shareholder value through dividends, buybacks, or strategic investments.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Funding & Solvency Profile

NCDL · NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents15.27M
Net Receivables14.25M
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets30 M
Property, Plant & Equipment0.00
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets0.00
Total Non-Current Assets0
Total Assets
2.05B

Financial Health Analysis

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

1.37x

Elevated leverage. Debt exceeds equity, which amplifies both gains and risks. Monitor debt servicing ability.

Working Capital

30 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

1% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Street Expectations Map

NCDL · NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that NCDL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.75 to a high of 14.75.

Lowest Target
14.75
16.23%
Consensus Target
14.75
16.23%
Highest Target
14.75
16.23%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.75 to a high of 14.75.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+16.2%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Insider Positioning

NCDL · NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.33M worth of NCDL shares, with no selling activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

33.6K

452.53K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+453K

+$453K

3-6 Months

Bought

19.7K

260.02K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+260K

+$260K

6-9 Months

Bought

32.0K

457.85K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+458K

+$458K

9-12 Months

Bought

9.6K

156.41K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+156K

+$156K

Top Buyers

1
KKJ

Kencel Kenneth J.

Director, Officer: Ceo & President

30.0K shares2 transactions

$415K

2
VS

Vichness Shaul

Officer: Chief Financial Off./Treasurer

25.0K shares5 transactions

$358K

3
RJJ

Ritchie James Joseph

Director

17.9K shares1 transactions

$245K

4
HM

Hassen Marissa

Officer: Chief Accounting Officer

8.4K shares2 transactions

$125K

5
SJ

Strife Jason

Other: Member-Sub-Adv'S Joint Inv Com

7.7K shares1 transactions

$103K

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Strong bullish signal with $1.33M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

∞:1

Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$453K

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

High Buying

5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

Insider Activity Insight

Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.

3.54%
Dividend Yield
5%
3Y+44.0%
5Y+133.0%
10Y-
 

ncdl Dividend History

NCDL
10Y CAGR 2%
Latest $0.38
Annual $2.13
Stable dividend payments
Last Period: 5%