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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.

NCDL·NYSE

$12.69

-4.3%
Financial ServicesAsset Management

Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (the “Company”) is business development company and was formed on March 13, 2018, as a limited liability company under the laws of the State of Delaware and was converted into a Maryland corporation on June 18, 2019 prior to the commencement of operations. The Company is a closed-end, externally managed, non-diversified management investment company that has elected to be regulated as a business development company (“BDC”) under the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended (the “1940 Act”). The Company's investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns primarily through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies, which the Company defines as companies with approximately $10.0 million to $100.0 million of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (“EBITDA”). The Company will focus on privately originated debt to performing U.S. middle market companies, with a portfolio expected to comprise primarily of first-lien senior secured debt and unitranche loans (other than last-out positions in unitranche loans) (collectively “Senior Loans”). The Company will also opportunistically invest in junior capital opportunities (second-lien loans, subordinated debt, last-out positions in unitranche loans and equity-related securities) (collectively “Junior Capital Investments”).

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$626.72M
EPS1.3000
P/E Ratio9.76
Earnings Date08/05/2026
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Street Expectations Map

NCDL · NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that NCDL stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.75 to a high of 14.75.

Lowest Target
14.75
16.23%
Consensus Target
14.75
16.23%
Highest Target
14.75
16.23%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 14.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 14.75 to a high of 14.75.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+16.2%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

0.0% spread

High analyst agreement. Narrow target range indicates strong consensus on valuation, suggesting clear investment thesis and predictable outlook.

Analyst Conviction

Very High

Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Forward Estimates of Revenue

NCDL · NYSE
Latest Revenue
201.84M
FY 2025
Avg Estimate
186.81M
FY 2026
Estimate Range
183.50M - 190.41M
Analyst Spread

Forward Growth Analysis

Projected Growth-7.4%

Declining expectations indicate headwinds—investigate whether temporary or structural issues.

Analyst Coverage2 Analysts

Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.

Estimate Spread4%

Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.

OutlookNeutral

Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Forward Estimates of Net Income

NCDL · NYSE
Latest Net Income
65.61M
FY 2025
Avg Estimate
79.51M
FY 2026
Estimate Range
77.03M - 81.50M
Analyst Spread

Forward Growth Analysis

Projected Growth+21.2%

Strong growth expectations signal robust business momentum and market opportunity expansion.

Analyst Coverage2 Analysts

Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.

Estimate Spread6%

Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.

OutlookPositive

Generally favorable outlook with reasonable growth prospects and analyst support.

Key Insight

Compelling growth story with analyst consensus: Strong projected growth combined with narrow estimate spread suggests high-conviction opportunity.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Forward Estimates of EPS

NCDL · NYSE
Latest EPS
1.30
FY 2025
Avg Estimate
$1.58
FY 2026
Estimate Range
$1.53 - $1.62
Analyst Spread

Forward Growth Analysis

Projected Growth+21.6%

Strong growth expectations signal robust business momentum and market opportunity expansion.

Analyst Coverage3 Analysts

Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.

Estimate Spread6%

Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.

OutlookPositive

Generally favorable outlook with reasonable growth prospects and analyst support.

Key Insight

Compelling growth story with analyst consensus: Strong projected growth combined with narrow estimate spread suggests high-conviction opportunity.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Forward Estimates of EBIT

NCDL · NYSE
Latest EBIT
143.66M
FY 2025
Avg Estimate
109.67M
FY 2026
Estimate Range
107.73M - 111.79M
Analyst Spread

Forward Growth Analysis

Projected Growth-23.7%

Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.

Analyst Coverage2 Analysts

Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.

Estimate Spread4%

Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.

OutlookNeutral

Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.

Key Insight

Limited coverage with volatile estimates: Few analysts covering despite significant projected changes may indicate information gaps or emerging risks.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Forward Estimates of EBITDA

NCDL · NYSE
Latest EBITDA
143.66M
FY 2025
Avg Estimate
109.67M
FY 2026
Estimate Range
107.73M - 111.79M
Analyst Spread

Forward Growth Analysis

Projected Growth-23.7%

Significant contraction projected—major business challenges or industry disruption likely.

Analyst Coverage2 Analysts

Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.

Estimate Spread4%

Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.

OutlookNeutral

Mixed signals—some positive indicators offset by concerns about growth or uncertainty.

Key Insight

Limited coverage with volatile estimates: Few analysts covering despite significant projected changes may indicate information gaps or emerging risks.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Forward Estimates of SG&A Expense

NCDL · NYSE
Latest SG&A Expense
7.61M
FY 2025
Avg Estimate
10.06M
FY 2026
Estimate Range
9.89M - 10.26M
Analyst Spread

Forward Growth Analysis

Projected Growth+32.2%

Strong growth expectations signal robust business momentum and market opportunity expansion.

Analyst Coverage2 Analysts

Limited coverage may indicate reduced institutional interest or information availability.

Estimate Spread4%

Narrow estimate range signals strong analyst consensus and predictable business outlook.

OutlookPositive

Generally favorable outlook with reasonable growth prospects and analyst support.

Key Insight

Compelling growth story with analyst consensus: Strong projected growth combined with narrow estimate spread suggests high-conviction opportunity.

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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Insider Positioning

NCDL · NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $1.33M worth of NCDL shares, with no selling activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

33.6K

452.53K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+453K

+$453K

3-6 Months

Bought

19.7K

260.02K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+260K

+$260K

6-9 Months

Bought

32.0K

457.85K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+458K

+$458K

9-12 Months

Bought

9.6K

156.41K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+156K

+$156K

Top Buyers

1
KKJ

Kencel Kenneth J.

Director, Officer: Ceo & President

30.0K shares2 transactions

$415K

2
VS

Vichness Shaul

Officer: Chief Financial Off./Treasurer

25.0K shares5 transactions

$358K

3
RJJ

Ritchie James Joseph

Director

17.9K shares1 transactions

$245K

4
HM

Hassen Marissa

Officer: Chief Accounting Officer

8.4K shares2 transactions

$125K

5
SJ

Strife Jason

Other: Member-Sub-Adv'S Joint Inv Com

7.7K shares1 transactions

$103K

Top Sellers

No selling activity

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bullish

Strong bullish signal with $1.33M net buying. Insiders are aggressively accumulating shares, suggesting significant confidence in future prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

∞:1

Perfect buy/sell ratio. Only buying activity with zero selling—the most bullish possible insider signal.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$453K

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

High Buying

5 insider buyers vs. 0 sellers. Broad-based buying across management team suggests widespread confidence.

Insider Activity Insight

Strong confluence of bullish signals: High buy/sell ratio, multiple insiders participating, and recent buying momentum all point to significant insider confidence. This level of coordinated buying often precedes positive developments.