Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPCยทNYSE

$267.21

+1.6%
EnergyOil & Gas Refining & Marketing

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$78.01B
EPS13.2700
P/E Ratio12.26
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 12.3).

Valuation inputs: P/E 12.3, earnings yield +8.2%, momentum +1.6%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is strong (ROE +23.4%, ROIC +7.0%).

Profitability stack: net margin +3.0%, ROE +23.4%, ROIC +7.0%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Risk profile is balanced but has notable pressure points to monitor.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +71.8%, momentum +1.6%, net margin +3.0%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory

MPC ยท NYSE

Loading price and EPS data...

Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Fair Value Envelope

MPC ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that MPC has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $267.21, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Marathon Petroleum Corporation.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $267.21
3Y-53.0%
5Y-188.0%
10Y+498.0%
3Y-25.0%
5Y+90.0%
10Y+110.0%
3Y-72.0%
5Y-141.0%
10Y+245.0%
3Y-50.0%
5Y+241.0%
10Y+105.0%
3Y-66.0%
5Y-1395.0%
10Y+324.0%
3Y-5.0%
5Y-
10Y+93.0%
Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Profit Bridge

MPC ยท NYSE
Revenue132.70B
Cost of Goods Sold (122.70B)
Gross Profit10.00B
Operating Expenses (4.23B)
Operating Income5.77B
Interest Expense (1.41B)
Other Income/Expense1.25B
Pretax Income7.01B
Income Tax (1.14B)
Net Income4.05B
Net Income
4.05B

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

7.5%

Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.

Operating Margin

4.3%

Minimal operating profit suggests high operating costs or pricing challenges. Scalability is concerning.

Net Profit Margin

3.0%

Minimal profitability after all expenses. Limited financial flexibility for reinvestment or shareholder returns.

Effective Tax Rate

16.2%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.

7.54%
Gross Profit Margin
13%
3Y-41.0%
5Y+684.0%
10Y+6.0%
4.35%
Operating Profit Margin
15%
3Y-59.0%
5Y-125.0%
10Y+15.0%
3.05%
Net Profit Margin
23%
3Y-63.0%
5Y-122.0%
10Y+65.0%
23.37%
Return on Equity
20%
3Y-55.0%
5Y-153.0%
10Y+170.0%
4.73%
Return on Assets
8%
3Y-71.0%
5Y-141.0%
10Y+79.0%
7.03%
Return on Invested Capital
-3%
3Y-66.0%
5Y-151.0%
10Y+65.0%
MPC

Marathon Petroleum Corporation Cash Conversion Engine

MPC ยท NYSE
Net Income4.05B
Depreciation & Amortization3.35B
Stock-Based Compensation0.00
Change in Working Capital-657.00M
Others1.23B
Capital Expenditures-3.49B
Free Cash Flow4.77B

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

117.8%

Excellent cash generation. The company converts earnings to cash at or above 100%, indicating high-quality earnings.

CapEx Intensity

42.2%

Capital-intensive operations require significant reinvestment. Monitor whether CapEx is maintenance or growth-oriented.

FCF Growth Trend

-22.3%

Significant FCF decline raises concerns. Urgent review needed of operational performance and capital allocation.

Working Capital Impact

-$657.00M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Solid cash generation: Positive free cash flow with reasonable earnings quality provides financial flexibility for growth investments, debt reduction, or shareholder returns.

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile

MPC ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents2.15B
Net Receivables0.00
Inventory10.76B
Other Current Assets15.78B
Total Current Assets29 B
Property, Plant & Equipment39.10B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets11.99B
Long-Term Investments7.00B
Other Non-Current Assets1.39B
Total Non-Current Assets47 B
Total Assets
88.19B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.18x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

2.76x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

4 B

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

33% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation Street Expectations Map

MPC ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that MPC stock may decline over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 239.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 174.00 to a high of 285.00.

Lowest Target
174.00
-34.88%
Consensus Target
239.50
-10.37%
Highest Target
285.00
6.66%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 239.50, with estimates ranging from a low of 174.00 to a high of 285.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

-10.4%

Downside risk. Current price above analyst targets indicates potential overvaluation. Exercise caution and review catalysts.

Analyst Agreement

46.3% spread

Mixed analyst views. Wide target range suggests differing opinions on key value drivers, growth prospects, or risk factors.

Risk-Reward Profile

0.19x

Unfavorable risk-reward. Downside risk exceeds upside potential. Consider defensive positioning or alternative opportunities.

Analyst Conviction

Low

Bearish or uncertain outlook. Limited upside or poor consensus suggests challenges ahead or fundamental concerns.

Market Sentiment Insight

Monitor and evaluate: Current analyst consensus suggests limited conviction or near-term catalysts. Stay informed on company developments and reassess positioning as new information emerges.

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Marathon Petroleum Corporation Insider Positioning

MPC ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $5.09M worth of MPC shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

4.1K

954.42K

Net Activity

-954K

-$954K

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

5.3K

1.07M

Net Activity

-1.1M

-$1.07M

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

18.3K

3.07M

Net Activity

-3.1M

-$3.07M

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
BMR

Benson Molly R

Officer: Chief Legal Ofc & Corp Sec

10.9K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.77M

2
RKK

Rucker Kim K.W.

Director

7.4K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.29M

3
HMAI

Henschen Michael A Ii

Officer: Ex Vp, Refining

5.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$1.07M

4
HRD

Hessling Ricky D.

Officer: Chief Commercial Officer

4.1K sharesโ€ข3 transactions

$954K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $5.09M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$954K

Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchasesโ€”may warrant investigation into company developments.

Insider Participation

High Selling

4 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

Insider Activity Insight

Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.

0.41%
Dividend Yield
-34%
3Y-27.0%
5Y-62.0%
10Y-52.0%
ย 

mpc Dividend History

MPC
10Y CAGR +12%
Latest $1
Annual $4.82
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%