$70.40
+1.7%Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. The company provides cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; cigars and pipe tobacco principally under the Black & Mild brand; and moist smokeless tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands, as well as provides on! oral nicotine pouches. It sells its tobacco products primarily to wholesalers, including distributors; and large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.
Warren Buffett's Owner Earnings DCF analysis for intrinsic value calculation
Base year metrics used for projections
Forecast period and terminal assumptions
Calculation flow from present value to intrinsic value per share
Operating Cash Flow - Maintenance CapEx = Owner Earnings
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 | Year 6 | Year 7 | Year 8 | Year 9 | Year 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.8B | $10.3B | $10.9B | $11.5B | $12.1B | $12.7B | $13.4B | $14.1B | $14.9B | $15.7B |
| Maintenance CapEx | -$45.5M | -$48.0M | -$50.5M | -$53.3M | -$56.1M | -$59.2M | -$62.3M | -$65.7M | -$69.2M | -$72.9M |
| Owner Earnings | $9.7B | $10.3B | $10.8B | $11.4B | $12.0B | $12.7B | $13.3B | $14.1B | $14.8B | $15.6B |
| Discount Factor | 0.926 | 0.857 | 0.794 | 0.735 | 0.681 | 0.630 | 0.583 | 0.540 | 0.500 | 0.463 |
| Present Value | $9.0B | $8.8B | $8.6B | $8.4B | $8.2B | $8.0B | $7.8B | $7.6B | $7.4B | $7.2B |
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.