Main Street Capital Corporation

Main Street Capital Corporation

MAIN·NYSE

$50.71

-1.7%
Financial ServicesAsset Management

Main Street Capital Corporation is a business development company specializes in equity capital to lower middle market companies. The firm specializing in recapitalizations, management buyouts, refinancing, family estate planning, management buyouts, refinancing, industry consolidation, mature, later stage emerging growth. The firm also provides debt capital to middle market companies for acquisitions, management buyouts, growth financings, recapitalizations and refinancing. The firm seeks to partner with entrepreneurs, business owners and management teams and generally provides one stop financing alternatives within its lower middle market portfolio. It prefers to invest in air freight and logistics, auto components, building products, chemicals, commercial services, computers, construction and engineering, consumer finance, consumer services, electronic equipment, energy equipment and services, financial services, health care equipment, health care providers, hotels, restaurants, and leisure, internet software and services, IT Services, machinery, oil, gas and consumable fuels, paper and forest products, professional and industrial services, road and rail, software, specialty retail, telecommunication, consumer discretionary, energy, materials, technology, and transportation. The firm typically invests in lower middle market companies generally with annual revenues between $5 million and $300 million. It prefers to invest in ranging between $2 million and $75 million in equity investment and enterprise value in ranging between $3 million and $20 million. The firm typically prefers to invest in the range of $5 million and $50 million per transaction in debt investment value and in the range of $1 million and $20 million in annual EBITDA. The firm's middle market debt investments are made in businesses that are generally larger in size than its lower middle market portfolio companies. It takes 5 percent minority and up to 50 percent majority equity investments. Main Street Capital Corporation was founded in 2007 and is based in Houston, Texas with an additional office in Chojnów, Poland.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$4.72B
EPS5.5200
P/E Ratio9.19
Earnings Date08/06/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal · Driver · Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 9.2).

Valuation inputs: P/E 9.2, earnings yield +10.9%, momentum -1.7%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is acceptable (ROE +16.5%, ROIC +8.6%).

Profitability stack: net margin +76.5%, ROE +16.5%, ROIC +8.6%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile looks controlled across current risk inputs.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +47.6%, momentum -1.7%, net margin +76.5%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

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Main Street Capital Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory

MAIN · NYSE
Current Price
$50.71
EPS (TTM)
$5.14

Performance Analysis

EPS Growth

-15.3%

Declining earnings warrant investigation into business challenges and competitive position.

Price-EPS Relationship

Aligned

Both price and earnings are declining together, reflecting deteriorating business fundamentals.

Stock Price Change

-8.7%

Over the 1Y period, stock price has decreased by 8.7%.

P/E Ratio (TTM)

9.2x

Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.

Main Street Capital Corporation

Main Street Capital Corporation Fair Value Envelope

MAIN · NYSE

Our analysis suggests that MAIN has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $50.71, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Main Street Capital Corporation.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $50.71
3Y+70.0%
5Y+1127.0%
10Y+107.0%
3Y+63.0%
5Y+541.0%
10Y+220.0%
3Y+104.0%
5Y+1579.0%
10Y+255.0%
3Y-241.0%
5Y-742.0%
10Y-913.0%
3Y-241.0%
5Y-742.0%
10Y-913.0%
3Y+35.0%
5Y+106.0%
10Y+176.0%
Main Street Capital Corporation

Main Street Capital Corporation Profit Bridge

MAIN · NYSE
Revenue644.50M
Cost of Goods Sold (0.00)
Gross Profit644.50M
Operating Expenses (124.30M)
Operating Income520.20M
Interest Expense (0.00)
Other Income/Expense0.00
Pretax Income520.20M
Income Tax (26.80M)
Net Income493.40M
Net Income
493.40M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

100.0%

Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.

Operating Margin

80.7%

Outstanding operational efficiency. The company generates substantial profit from core operations.

Net Profit Margin

76.6%

Exceptional profitability. The company converts a significant portion of revenue to bottom-line earnings.

Effective Tax Rate

5.2%

Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.

Profitability Insight

Exceptional profitability across all levels: Strong pricing power, efficient operations, and healthy bottom line indicate a high-quality business with sustainable competitive advantages.

100.00%
Gross Profit Margin
21%
3Y+25.0%
5Y+97.0%
10Y+20.0%
80.71%
Operating Profit Margin
9%
3Y+21.0%
5Y+412.0%
10Y+18.0%
76.55%
Net Profit Margin
9%
3Y+26.0%
5Y+162.0%
10Y+11.0%
16.48%
Return on Equity
-9%
3Y+44.0%
5Y+750.0%
10Y+43.0%
8.64%
Return on Assets
-13%
3Y+52.0%
5Y+714.0%
10Y+29.0%
8.64%
Return on Invested Capital
-14%
3Y+50.0%
5Y+1397.0%
10Y+28.0%
MAIN

Main Street Capital Corporation Cash Conversion Engine

MAIN · NYSE
Net Income-54.58M
Depreciation & Amortization6.51M
Stock-Based Compensation21.44M
Change in Working Capital-2.74M
Others353.95M
Capital Expenditures0.00
Free Cash Flow347.44M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-636.6%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

FCF Growth Trend

+498.8%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

-$2.74M

Minimal working capital impact on FCF. Changes in operating assets and liabilities well-managed.

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Main Street Capital Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile

MAIN · NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents20.79M
Net Receivables0.00
Inventory0.00
Other Current Assets0.00
Total Current Assets21 M
Property, Plant & Equipment0.00
Goodwill & Intangible Assets0.00
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets0.00
Total Non-Current Assets0
Total Assets
5.83B

Financial Health Analysis

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

0.88x

Balanced capital structure with moderate leverage. Equity exceeds debt, suggesting healthy financial stability.

Working Capital

21 M

Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.

Asset Composition

0% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Main Street Capital Corporation Street Expectations Map

MAIN · NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that MAIN stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 59.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 50.00 to a high of 70.00.

Lowest Target
50.00
-1.40%
Consensus Target
59.20
16.74%
Highest Target
70.00
38.04%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 59.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 50.00 to a high of 70.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+16.7%

Strong upside potential. Consensus indicates attractive return opportunity with favorable risk-reward profile.

Analyst Agreement

33.8% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Risk-Reward Profile

27.17x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.

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Main Street Capital Corporation Insider Positioning

MAIN · NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have sold $1.78M worth of MAIN shares, with no buying activity reported.

3 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

3-6 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

28.2K

1.78M

Net Activity

-1.8M

-$1.78M

Top Buyers

No buying activity

Top Sellers

1
MN

Meserve Nicholas

Officer: Managing Director

14.0K shares1 transactions

$940K

2
MJE

Morris Jesse E

Director, Officer: Evp And Coo

10.2K shares1 transactions

$605K

3
BJB

Beauvais Jason B

Officer: Evp, Gc, Secretary

4.0K shares1 transactions

$236K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Strong bearish signal with $1.78M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.00:1

Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.

Insider Participation

High Selling

3 insider sellers vs. 0 buyers. Widespread selling across multiple insiders may signal concerns.

2.04%
Dividend Yield
29%
3Y+7.0%
5Y+43.0%
10Y-7.0%
 

main Dividend History

MAIN
10Y CAGR +1%
Latest $0.265
Annual $4.575
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%