Lincoln National Corporation
$33.53
+0.10%Lincoln National Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates multiple insurance and retirement businesses in the United States. It operates through four segments: Annuities, Retirement Plan Services, Life Insurance, and Group Protection. The Annuities segment offers fixed, variable, and indexed variable annuities. The Retirement Plan Services segment provides employers with retirement plan products and services primarily in the defined contribution retirement plan marketplace. This segment offers individual and group variable annuities, group fixed annuities, and mutual fund-based programs; and a range of plan services, including plan recordkeeping, compliance testing, participant education, and trust and custodial services. The Life Insurance segment provides life insurance products, including term insurance, such as single and survivorship versions of universal life insurance; variable universal life insurance; indexed universal life insurance products; and critical illness and long-term care riders. The Group Protection segment offers group non-medical insurance products comprising short and long-term disability, statutory disability and paid family medical leave administration and absence management services, term life, dental, vision and accident, and critical illness benefits and services to the employer marketplace through various forms of employee-paid and employer-paid plans. The company distributes its products through consultants, brokers, planners, agents, financial advisors, third-party administrators, and other intermediaries. Lincoln National Corporation was founded in 1905 and is based in Radnor, Pennsylvania.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 5.6).
Valuation inputs: P/E 5.6, earnings yield +17.7%, momentum +0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is soft (ROE +10.8%, ROIC +0.5%).
Profitability stack: net margin +6.5%, ROE +10.8%, ROIC +0.5%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +97.4%, momentum +0.1%, net margin +6.5%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Lincoln National Corporation Market vs Earnings Trajectory
Performance Analysis
EPS Growth
Strong earnings growth indicates robust business expansion and improving profitability.
Price-EPS Relationship
Stock price is moving in line with earnings growth—a healthy sign of fundamental-driven valuation.
Stock Price Change
Over the 1Y period, stock price has increased by 2.6%.
P/E Ratio (TTM)
Relatively low P/E may indicate undervaluation or lower growth expectations.
Key Insight
Strong earnings growth (+66.1%) is outpacing price appreciation (+2.6%), potentially indicating an attractive entry point as the market may not have fully recognized the improving fundamentals.
Lincoln National Corporation Fair Value Envelope
Lincoln National Corporation Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Exceptional pricing power and cost management. The company retains over half of revenue after direct costs.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Below-average tax rate suggests effective tax planning, favorable jurisdictions, or tax credits.
Profitability Insight
Margin squeeze alert: Healthy gross margins but weak operating margins suggest excessive operating expenses. Cost optimization could unlock significant value.
Lincoln National Corporation Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extension—monitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Lincoln National Corporation Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Excellent liquidity position. The company can easily cover its short-term obligations with substantial cushion.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Strong working capital position provides significant operational flexibility and financial cushion.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Financial Health Insight
Mixed signals: Strong short-term liquidity provides comfort, but high overall leverage requires careful monitoring of debt servicing capabilities and refinancing risk.
Lincoln National Corporation Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that LNC stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 42.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 39.00 to a high of 48.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 42.75, with estimates ranging from a low of 39.00 to a high of 48.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Substantial upside potential. Analysts see significant value gap, suggesting the stock may be materially undervalued at current levels.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Analyst Conviction
Strong buy conviction: High upside with tight consensus suggests compelling investment opportunity backed by analyst confidence.
Market Sentiment Insight
Rare opportunity: Exceptional upside potential with strong analyst consensus creates a compelling setup. The combination of significant price target premium and tight agreement suggests high-conviction undervaluation that may attract institutional capital.
Lincoln National Corporation Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $94K and sold $2.01M worth of LNC shares, resulting in $1.91M of net selling activity.
3 Months
300
9.78K
8.0K
261.92K
-252K
-$252K
3-6 Months
0
0.00
16.6K
627.48K
-627K
-$627K
6-9 Months
2.0K
84.34K
0
0.00
+84K
+$84K
9-12 Months
0
0.00
27.5K
1.12M
-1.1M
-$1.12M
Top Buyers
Ryan Owen
Director
$84K
Charters Jennifer
Officer: Evp, Chief Information Officer
$10K
Top Sellers
Woodroffe Sean
Officer: Evp, Ch Ppl Comms Ent Srvc Off
$1.27M
Kennedy John Christopher
Officer: Evp, Chief Dist. & Brand Off
$352K
Kroll Brian
Officer: Evp, Head Of Life & Annuities
$260K
Reid James Waltman
Officer: Evp Workplace Solutions
$128K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Strong bearish signal with $1.91M net selling. Heavy insider selling may indicate concerns about valuation or near-term prospects.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Very poor ratio. Heavy selling with minimal buying suggests insiders may be concerned about valuation or outlook.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Heavy recent selling activity. Recent insider sales notably exceed purchases—may warrant investigation into company developments.
Insider Participation
4 insider sellers vs. 2 buyers. More insiders selling than buying suggests cautious or negative sentiment.
Insider Activity Insight
Multiple red flags: Heavy selling, numerous sellers, and continued recent selling create a concerning pattern. Investigate fundamental drivers and consider whether company guidance or industry conditions have deteriorated.
lnc Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on LNC by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.