Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$10.81
-0.092%Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
At a Glance
Live SnapshotIntrinsic Alpha Methodology
Thesis Lenses
Signal
High confidenceValuation multiple is compressed (P/E 7.3).
Valuation inputs: P/E 7.3, earnings yield +13.8%, momentum -0.1%.
If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.
Driver
High confidenceReturn profile is acceptable (ROE +13.3%, ROIC +6.6%).
Profitability stack: net margin +5.1%, ROE +13.3%, ROIC +6.6%.
Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.
Risk
High confidenceDownside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.
Risk factors: liabilities/assets +71.7%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +5.1%.
Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory
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Graphic Packaging Holding Company Fair Value Envelope
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Profit Bridge
Profitability Analysis
Gross Margin
Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.
Operating Margin
Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.
Net Profit Margin
Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.
Effective Tax Rate
Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.
Profitability Insight
Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Cash Conversion Engine
Cash Flow Quality Analysis
FCF Conversion Rate
Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.
CapEx Intensity
Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.
FCF Growth Trend
Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.
Working Capital Impact
Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโmonitor closely.
Cash Flow Quality Insight
Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Funding & Solvency Profile
Financial Health Analysis
Current Ratio
Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.
Debt-to-Equity Ratio
High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.
Working Capital
Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.
Asset Composition
Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Street Expectations Map
Wall Street analysts project that GPK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 14.00.
The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 14.00.
Analyst Consensus Analysis
Upside Potential
Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.
Analyst Agreement
Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.
Risk-Reward Profile
Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.
Analyst Conviction
Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.
Market Sentiment Insight
Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.
Graphic Packaging Holding Company Insider Positioning
During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $862K and sold $2.07M worth of GPK shares, resulting in $1.21M of net selling activity.
3 Months
31.9K
353.99K
0
0.00
+354K
+$354K
3-6 Months
44.9K
507.91K
0
0.00
+508K
+$508K
6-9 Months
0
0.00
0
0.00
+0
+$0
9-12 Months
0
0.00
93.8K
2.07M
-2.1M
-$2.07M
Top Buyers
Rietbroek Robbert
Director, Officer: President And Ceo
$501K
Stafeil Jeffrey
Director
$200K
Hagemann Robert
Director
$154K
Venturelli Larry M
Director
$7K
Top Sellers
Martens Philip R
Director
$1.39M
Yost Joseph P
Officer: Evp & President, Americas
$682K
Insider Activity Analysis
Net Insider Sentiment
Negative insider sentiment with $1.21M net selling. Selling notably exceeds buying, warranting closer scrutiny of company fundamentals.
Buy/Sell Ratio
Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buyingโmonitor for potential fundamental concerns.
Recent Trend (3 Months)
Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.
Insider Participation
4 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.
gpk Dividend History
Learning Layer
Related Guides
Build conviction on GPK by pairing this stock hub with focused valuation guides.
Research Paths
Snapshot
Start with context, operating signals, and key market metrics.
Value Model
Stress test fair value across bear, base, and bull assumptions.
Statements
Validate revenue quality, margins, and balance sheet durability.
Earnings Call
Read management commentary and compare it with reported outcomes.
Dividends
Check payout sustainability and long-term distribution behavior.
Analyst Expectations
Review consensus spread and where estimate risk is concentrated.