Graphic Packaging Holding Company

Graphic Packaging Holding Company

GPKยทNYSE

$10.81

-0.092%
Consumer CyclicalPackaging & Containers

Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides fiber-based packaging solutions to food, beverage, foodservice, and other consumer products companies. It operates through three segments: Paperboard Mills, Americas Paperboard Packaging, and Europe Paperboard Packaging. The company offers coated unbleached kraft (CUK), coated recycled paperboard (CRB), and solid bleached sulfate paperboard (SBS) to various paperboard packaging converters and brokers; and paperboard packaging products, such as folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers primarily to consumer packaged goods, quick-service restaurants, and foodservice companies; and barrier packaging products that protect against moisture, hot and cold temperature, grease, oil, oxygen, sunlight, insects, and other potential product-damaging factors. It also offers various laminated, coated, and printed packaging structures that are produced from its CUK, CRB, and SBS, as well as other grades of paperboards that are purchased from third-party suppliers; designs and manufactures specialized packaging machines that package bottles and cans, and non-beverage consumer products; and installs its packaging machines at customer plants and provides support, service, and performance monitoring of the machines. The company markets its products primarily through sales offices and broker arrangements with third parties in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.

At a Glance

Live Snapshot
Market Cap$3.20B
EPS1.4900
P/E Ratio7.26
Earnings Date08/04/2026

Intrinsic Alpha Methodology

Thesis Lenses

Signal ยท Driver ยท Risk

Signal

High confidence

Valuation multiple is compressed (P/E 7.3).

Valuation inputs: P/E 7.3, earnings yield +13.8%, momentum -0.1%.

If multiples stay elevated while momentum fades, downside repricing risk rises.

Driver

High confidence

Return profile is acceptable (ROE +13.3%, ROIC +6.6%).

Profitability stack: net margin +5.1%, ROE +13.3%, ROIC +6.6%.

Quality deterioration often appears in margins before it shows up in headline EPS.

Risk

High confidence

Downside profile is elevated and scenario stress-testing is essential.

Risk factors: liabilities/assets +71.7%, momentum -0.1%, net margin +5.1%.

Higher leverage with weak momentum and thin margins can amplify drawdown severity.

gpk

Graphic Packaging Holding Company Market vs Earnings Trajectory

GPK ยท NYSE

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company

Graphic Packaging Holding Company Fair Value Envelope

GPK ยท NYSE

Our analysis suggests that GPK has a fair value of HIDDEN per share in the Base Case projection. With shares currently trading at $10.81, this represents a potential HIDDEN relative to our calculated worth for Graphic Packaging Holding Company.

Intrinsic Value
Current Price: $10.81
3Y-12.0%
5Y+148.0%
10Y+110.0%
3Y-9.0%
5Y+31.0%
10Y+100.0%
3Y-15.0%
5Y+165.0%
10Y+95.0%
3Y-22.0%
5Y+4.0%
10Y+33.0%
3Y-115.0%
5Y-145.0%
10Y-123.0%
3Y+14.0%
5Y+51.0%
10Y+156.0%
Graphic Packaging Holding Company

Graphic Packaging Holding Company Profit Bridge

GPK ยท NYSE
Revenue8.62B
Cost of Goods Sold (7.00B)
Gross Profit1.61B
Operating Expenses (743.00M)
Operating Income869.00M
Interest Expense (222.00M)
Other Income/Expense-286.00M
Pretax Income583.00M
Income Tax (139.00M)
Net Income444.00M
Net Income
444.00M

Profitability Analysis

Gross Margin

18.7%

Thin margins leave little room for error. Cost management and pricing strategy are critical.

Operating Margin

10.1%

Acceptable margins but limited operational leverage. Operating expense control is important.

Net Profit Margin

5.2%

Moderate profitability with room for improvement. Monitor interest expenses and tax efficiency.

Effective Tax Rate

23.8%

Moderate tax rate typical for most corporations. Represents standard tax burden on profits.

Profitability Insight

Efficient profit conversion: Minimal margin compression from gross to net indicates lean operations and favorable tax/interest environment.

18.71%
Gross Profit Margin
-17%
3Y-3.0%
5Y+8.0%
10Y+2.0%
10.08%
Operating Profit Margin
-23%
3Y-8.0%
5Y+5.0%
10Y+9.0%
5.15%
Net Profit Margin
-31%
3Y-7.0%
5Y+102.0%
10Y-3.0%
13.31%
Return on Equity
-39%
3Y-45.0%
5Y+13.0%
10Y-38.0%
3.77%
Return on Assets
-36%
3Y-25.0%
5Y+76.0%
10Y-24.0%
6.56%
Return on Invested Capital
-28%
3Y-26.0%
5Y-18.0%
10Y-9.0%
GPK

Graphic Packaging Holding Company Cash Conversion Engine

GPK ยท NYSE
Net Income444.00M
Depreciation & Amortization536.00M
Stock-Based Compensation2.00M
Change in Working Capital-200.00M
Others-35.00M
Capital Expenditures-935.00M
Free Cash Flow-81.00M

Cash Flow Quality Analysis

FCF Conversion Rate

-18.2%

Negative free cash flow despite positive earnings raises concerns about cash generation ability or heavy capital requirements.

CapEx Intensity

109.5%

Very high capital intensity consumes most operating cash flow. Limited flexibility for dividends or debt reduction.

FCF Growth Trend

+77.7%

Strong FCF growth demonstrates improving cash generation and business momentum. Positive signal for sustainability.

Working Capital Impact

-$200.00M

Significant working capital drain. Growth may be consuming cash through inventory buildup or receivables extensionโ€”monitor closely.

Cash Flow Quality Insight

Cash flow concerns: Despite profitability, the company is burning cash. Review working capital management, CapEx levels, and sustainability of current operations.

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company Funding & Solvency Profile

GPK ยท NYSE
Cash & Cash Equivalents189.00M
Net Receivables861.00M
Inventory1.72B
Other Current Assets187.00M
Total Current Assets3 B
Property, Plant & Equipment5.58B
Goodwill & Intangible Assets2.70B
Long-Term Investments0.00
Other Non-Current Assets458.00M
Total Non-Current Assets6 B
Total Assets
11.69B

Financial Health Analysis

Current Ratio

1.41x

Acceptable liquidity, but monitor closely. Current assets just barely cover current liabilities.

Debt-to-Equity Ratio

2.60x

High financial leverage. Heavy reliance on debt may indicate increased financial risk and potential solvency concerns.

Working Capital

857 M

Positive working capital, but relatively tight. The company should monitor cash flow carefully.

Asset Composition

25% Current

Capital-intensive business with significant long-term investments in property, equipment, or intangibles.

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company Street Expectations Map

GPK ยท NYSE

Wall Street analysts project that GPK stock may rise significantly over the coming 12 months. The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 14.00.

Lowest Target
10.00
-7.49%
Consensus Target
12.20
12.86%
Highest Target
14.00
29.51%

The consensus 1-year price target stands at 12.20, with estimates ranging from a low of 10.00 to a high of 14.00.

Analyst Consensus Analysis

Upside Potential

+12.9%

Moderate upside. Analysts expect positive returns but with limited margin of safety. Consider entry timing.

Analyst Agreement

32.8% spread

Good consensus alignment. Moderate target spread reflects general agreement on value drivers with some variance in assumptions.

Risk-Reward Profile

3.94x

Favorable risk-reward. Potential upside significantly exceeds downside risk, offering asymmetric return profile attractive for risk-tolerant investors.

Analyst Conviction

High

Positive outlook with reasonable agreement. Analysts generally optimistic about prospects with manageable uncertainty.

Market Sentiment Insight

Asymmetric upside: Strong return potential with favorable risk-reward profile. The limited downside relative to upside makes this an attractive risk-adjusted opportunity for growth-oriented portfolios.

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Graphic Packaging Holding Company Insider Positioning

GPK ยท NYSE

During the last 12 months, insiders have purchased $862K and sold $2.07M worth of GPK shares, resulting in $1.21M of net selling activity.

3 Months

Bought

31.9K

353.99K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+354K

+$354K

3-6 Months

Bought

44.9K

507.91K

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+508K

+$508K

6-9 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

0

0.00

Net Activity

+0

+$0

9-12 Months

Bought

0

0.00

Sold

93.8K

2.07M

Net Activity

-2.1M

-$2.07M

Top Buyers

1
RR

Rietbroek Robbert

Director, Officer: President And Ceo

44.3K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$501K

2
SJ

Stafeil Jeffrey

Director

17.9K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$200K

3
HR

Hagemann Robert

Director

14.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$154K

4
VLM

Venturelli Larry M

Director

600 sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$7K

Top Sellers

1
MPR

Martens Philip R

Director

63.8K sharesโ€ข2 transactions

$1.39M

2
YJP

Yost Joseph P

Officer: Evp & President, Americas

30.0K sharesโ€ข1 transactions

$682K

Insider Activity Analysis

Net Insider Sentiment

Bearish

Negative insider sentiment with $1.21M net selling. Selling notably exceeds buying, warranting closer scrutiny of company fundamentals.

Buy/Sell Ratio

0.42:1

Weak buy/sell ratio. Selling significantly exceeds buyingโ€”monitor for potential fundamental concerns.

Recent Trend (3 Months)

$354K

Very strong recent buying momentum. Recent insider purchases significantly outpace sales, suggesting near-term optimism.

Insider Participation

Moderate Buying

4 insider buyers vs. 2 sellers. More insiders buying than selling indicates positive sentiment.

1.08%
Dividend Yield
51%
3Y+176.0%
5Y+126.0%
10Y+172.0%
ย 

gpk Dividend History

GPK
10Y CAGR +8%
Latest $0.11
Annual $0.44
5 year growth trend
Last Period: +0%